Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

[Summer Sun]

 

[northwestsnow]

Will  be interesting to see EC det strat charts this morning..

Guessing they will look interesting..

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Will  be interesting to see EC det strat charts this morning..

Guessing they will look interesting..

Have a look yourself , I have no Idea what to make of them 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

 

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Have a look yourself , I have no Idea what to make of them 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

 

 

Sorry Artur i meant the run from 3rd 00z (today)..

[JeffC]

3 daughter vortices clearly evident at 10hpa. 

2  main ones over N Atlantic and CEE, and a smaller one in N Pacific... 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=0.62,87.41,216

[Summer Sun]

 

[karlos1983]

That shows on the last GEFS 4 runs. 

Zonal Mean winds stay negative all the way to the end of the run.no quick bounce back looking likely.

Edited January 3, 2019 by karlos1983

[Summer Sun]

 

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Hmm....but latest Meto update defo now indicating "towards end January".....maybe.

[Singularity]

Thinking very long-term for a moment - the sequence of warming events looks to build up a considerable positive height anomaly in the lower and mid-stratosphere close to or over the UK and it's conceivable that the polar vortex may be unable to push this away before the final warming in the spring. If that proves to be the case, then that'll lend support to drier than usual conditions spring-summer 2019. Similar to how the residual positive anomaly from the late-season warming of last winter promoted height rises NE of the UK during spring-summer 2018.

That's how extremely significant these events can be if the polar vortex doesn't manage a strong recovery thereafter. Usually only the case with late-season events but this one look so prolonged that I wonder if the vortex may remain displaced to a location further away from the UK than usual even if it manages to regroup.

[MR EXTREMES]

On 02/01/2019 at 08:37, chionomaniac said:

I wonder am I the only one who isn't overly excited that the dynamics and downwelling of the SSW and subsequent split are not looking favourable for the UK? The split at 10hPA keeps the residual vortices over the Atlantic and Eurasian sector before rejoining and even with the strongest tilting that I can imagine, there is a strong possibility of some kind of westerly flow over our sector unless these daughters can 'do one' and bugger off elsewhere!

no nearly all of the modelled stratospheric outputs , are showing this annoying feature although the ecm has strong height anomaly to our west.

 maybe things are far from resolved.

its almost like the models have latched on to the idea of this warming effect ,

and have decided to chuck out eye candy.

only for the strat or sister vortex segments to come and ruin the excitement,

there's also the added warming which seem to be a thorn in uk potential side by pushing part of the vortex out to our west.

although other models also have a segment to the south of the uk..

we could get lucky before the atlantic comes back.

i noticed on the jma also a warm anomaly popping up over canada....... i dont know if this the infamous canadian warming that ive been watching for. 

[Catacol]

37 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

no nearly all of the modelled stratospheric outputs , are showing this annoying feature although the ecm has strong height anomaly to our west.

 maybe things are far from resolved.

its almost like the models have latched on to the idea of this warming effect ,

and have decided to chuck out eye candy.

only for the strat or sister vortex segments to come and ruin the excitement,

there's also the added warming which seem to be a thorn in uk potential side by pushing part of the vortex out to our west.

although other models also have a segment to the south of the uk..

we could get lucky before the atlantic comes back.

i noticed on the jma also a warm anomaly popping up over canada....... i dont know if this the infamous canadian warming that ive been watching for. 

I noted Chio's comments yesterday and they gave me pause for thought - much respect due to him. But looking at the charts again today I just don't see what you are seeing - perhaps you could post some charts as back up? Taking a snapshot at the outer edges of ECM modelling we see a split vortex at 10hpa with the bigger daughter out over Russia - note the ongoing net reversal

Drop down to 30hpa and pretty similar

Drop down a bit further to 70hpa and still the vortex largely sitting over Russia with smaller daughter offcut over the US and troughing over Europe

And then in the lower strat an even clearer sense of the main vortex segment off in Asia - I'd say further East than the layers above and therefore tilted away from the UK. Note ridge signal over the north atlantic and not a lot of anything over the US/Canada

Jumping model to GFS and looking into FI at 10hpa we see an alternative view - with colder temps indicative of a more active upper vortex over Canada at this point, but note ongoing warming over Asia and a clear signal for split off shards that are travelling a long way south and most certainly to the south of the UK. It's a pity we cant see a 50 or 100 hpa forecast at this kind of range - but 10hpa will have to do. 

And using Attard's very useful plots we can see again the clear signal for a stratospheric high anomaly through the north atlantic and up into the pole, with the main vortex out over Asia at 100hpa. Attard uses GFS modelling.

I don't see a westerly airflow over the UK from any of this. I can see the potential for a stormy undercut signal on the GFS if we take FI as likely and assume the lower vortex is mirroring upper vortex activity - and given pacific signal for tropospheric forcing of higher pressure over the Scandy/Greeny region I would doubt that the lower vortex would be sat over Iceland given pressure both from above and below to vacate that area. I would accept that I am making a guesstimate here without charts - anyone with 30 - 150hpa forecast charts out beyond 240h please post the link....I'd like to have them.

So - can you back up your analysis here and counter mine?

Edited January 3, 2019 by Catacol

[Catacol]

And here's a better GFS 10hpa representation perhaps of that stormy undercut scenario that GFS is painting

That's a pretty good image if you ask me....provided you aren't after warm south westerlies that is.

[Catacol]

Somebody much earlier this season really helpfully posted somewhere we can find archived strat charts from - but I cant find the link or the post for the life of me. Can anyone with links to strat archives post them here? I'll make sure to bookmark them next time.....

[Gael_Force]

32 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Somebody much earlier this season really helpfully posted somewhere we can find archived strat charts from - but I cant find the link or the post for the life of me. Can anyone with links to strat archives post them here? I'll make sure to bookmark them next time.....

JMA have a 30mb archive going back to winter 1958/59. 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_pen_tcc.html

 

[chris55]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

That’s a fantastic profile for the UK with the high anomaly focused very favourably to support high lat blocking to our north. 

I get a feeling this SSW will be a slow burner that eventually packs one hell of a punch as we head into late jan and February.

[inghams85]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Somebody much earlier this season really helpfully posted somewhere we can find archived strat charts from - but I cant find the link or the post for the life of me. Can anyone with links to strat archives post them here? I'll make sure to bookmark them next time.....

Them last 3 posts are unbelievably consice common sense posts. You did a good job in Feb/March predicting the tropospheric impacts of the last SSW so my advise is stick to what you believe is right. I think the slower downwell and tropical discrepancies are making good posters doubt themselves and that includes the MET who I believe are taking the weather models too literally and swaying within ensembles instead of using some human interpretation to second guess when some output may be wrong against background factors 

[chionomaniac]

@catacol those charts have certainly improved at 10 hPa  -so things are improving. Go back to day 10 at 10 hPa from say, 30/12/18, and you will see the point that I was illustrating at the time, and hence the concern and why I suggested that  the daughter vortices should do one and bugger off. Seems like they may have listened lol!

[sebastiaan1973]

2 hours ago, Catacol said:

Somebody much earlier this season really helpfully posted somewhere we can find archived strat charts from - but I cant find the link or the post for the life of me. Can anyone with links to strat archives post them here? I'll make sure to bookmark them next time.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?type=era

But just 10 hPa temperature charts.

[Catacol]

Just for those interested - there are some excellent speakers at the next American Middle Atmosphere conference advertised by Amy Butler on her twitter feed, and clicking on one of the speakers who is presenting on the impacts of ENSO and SSW on winter weather I found a link to the powerpoint slides. Good find! 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/351623

There are some slides too on BDC / Ozone depletion...and all the other speakers have summaries of their talks. Interesting summary of the QBO / Arctic sea ice relationship. Just head over the Amy Butler's twitter feed for the links

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Catacol

[summer blizzard]

The winter of 1970 is an interesting potential analogue.

SSW almost to the day, Nino and December had a +SOI.

Stayed cold until April.

.....

Was also wondering if we had any analysis of split events where the main energy left North America.

[Catacol]

3 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

JMA have a 30mb archive going back to winter 1958/59. 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_pen_tcc.html

 

Thanks - excellent...and they have a 100hpa layer too!

[Singularity]

Ah, no wonder Chiono's previous post had the rest of us a bit puzzled! New Year Lag 

This to my eye is the best 30 hPa strat. chart I've seen from GFS so far, with the strongest dividing ridge and the Canadian vortex about as far west as I can recall. There's also a bit of a division of the N. Asian vortex taking place. Unless I'm not tilting enough with height, it looks sufficiently positioned for the UK to do pretty well from the surface patterns in terms of cold air imports.

[phil nw.]

Yes looking better S.The 100 hPa chart at the same time

nearly replicated Plenty of room for an Arctic high to nose down west of the Scandi/Siberian chunk.A decent later gefs set after day 10 reflecting this.

[Blessed Weather]

4 hours ago, Catacol said:

Somebody much earlier this season really helpfully posted somewhere we can find archived strat charts from - but I cant find the link or the post for the life of me. Can anyone with links to strat archives post them here? I'll make sure to bookmark them next time.....

NOAA have the Annual Time Series (12 month charts) of zonal wind, temperature and Wave 1, 2 & 3 going back to 1979 here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

And Amy Butler et al have produced 'A sudden stratospheric warming compendium' that provides a database that documents the evolution of the stratosphere, troposphere, and surface conditions 60 days prior to and after SSWs for the period 1958–2014. The overview paper is here (which describes the database, with a link to it at the end):

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf

But note that the current US Government Shutdown means the database is currently unavailable.