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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

There's a patch of warmer temps showing at 10 Hpa over northern russia

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=19.39,83.72,255/loc=100.872,55.001

Is this the start of something?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gefs giving good support to the op. That’s a big enough signature for a scandi ridge! 

65AB35FB-C4B9-422D-B15F-72F3D95E48F4.thumb.jpeg.86a4e515c589e8b775dfe29bc561a131.jpeg

That’s pretty impressive...agreement while a while off less subject to error compared to tropospheric charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

This warm patch above N Russia at 10 Hpa  - it is ONLY at 10 Hpa, not showing at all at 70 or any of the other heights. If this is a wave induced phenomenon can anyone signpost me to the mechanism for this please?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-3.31,82.00,327/loc=99.662,59.653

 

Edited by JeffC
fixing link
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Has anyone got the latest GEFS mean 10mb height charts please? the displacement seems to have gone now on op runs but may be there on some ensemble members looking at the temperature charts at 384.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Has anyone got the latest GEFS mean 10mb height charts please? the displacement seems to have gone now on op runs but may be there on some ensemble members looking at the temperature charts at 384.

The op seems to be a bit all over the place as week 2 progresses. The gefs on the same page as they have been but the Scandi high anomoly looking a tad more suppressed, run by run. Note the 06z is stronger than the three previous runs but not as strong as yesterday’s 06z .

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

With the intense vortex pushing up against strong ridges there is the potential for dramatic warming but only if the flow aligns correctly with the high terrain of Scandinavia for example, making this a finely balanced enough situation that the stratospheric output on the Atlantic-Eurasian side varies as much as the tropospheric output.

Down here though, the warming potential only seems at all appealing if we can get a quick like-for-like response beneath any stratospheric ridging that develops in tandem with the warming over Scandinavia; failing this we're likely waiting for a new bout of activity on the Pacific side (largely MJO-related) to either displace or split the vortex (depending on whether the Scandinavian warming/ridging materialises), by which time we'll likely be looking at impacts late winter and into spring, and I share BA's opinion on such a turnout, as even March 2013 failed to deliver more than a biting wind down this way (though it was impressively so; cut right through a heavy ski jacket plus fine-woven fleece).

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The op seems to be a bit all over the place as week 2 progresses. The gefs on the same page as they have been but the Scandi high anomoly looking a tad more suppressed, run by run. Note the 06z is stronger than the three previous runs but not as strong as yesterday’s 06z .

12z gefs strong again on the scandi ridge as week 2 progresses 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
16 hours ago, bluearmy said:

12z gefs strong again on the scandi ridge as week 2 progresses 

Gfs suite looking like SSW territory mid Feb - will it sustain the signal? 

Expect to see some wacky trop output back end of the runs if it does 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Encouraging drop in zonal winds by mid-Feb after a slight uptick before then

468AA02F-7BAE-4795-8872-F207D970DFEC.thumb.jpeg.88809a0cdd1002021aead0e9d60741d6.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Encouraging drop in zonal winds by mid-Feb after a slight uptick before then

468AA02F-7BAE-4795-8872-F207D970DFEC.thumb.jpeg.88809a0cdd1002021aead0e9d60741d6.jpeg

Could be a very cold start to Spring if that comes off.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Encouraging drop in zonal winds by mid-Feb after a slight uptick before then

468AA02F-7BAE-4795-8872-F207D970DFEC.thumb.jpeg.88809a0cdd1002021aead0e9d60741d6.jpeg

Question is though, is it backed up by the EPS?

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
43 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Could be a very cold start to Spring if that comes off.

The thing is if we end up with just a minor warming we could get the polar opposite- March 2012. Interesting to see how it develops

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
33 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Has this ever actually happened before??

gfsnh-10-336.png?6

A split SSW, yes - many a time, just not recently.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like it’s coming - wave 2 induced split from Scandi across to the Pacific possible 

If I was being hyper greedy, id like the split as near to the pole as possible, just a tad nearer to Greeny through the pole than scandi, thus more leeway if it was to propagate down a bit further East, leaving a huge chunk of cold nearer to Russia And scandi to tap into.

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