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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Maybe a start

lag efect,late jan/early feb but need this uptick to go through the roof,good vertical tick though instead of a near vertical.

pole30_nh.gifpole10_nh.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Many, including myself have been scratching our heads as to why this winter, when the conditions have been so perfect for a loosening of the Polar jet and expansionism of cold air into the lower latitudes has not occurred. 

Signals consistantly showing via the models of HLB in Scandinavia & Greenland, yet failing to materialise each time in terms of predicted longevity. 

MJO entered sector 3 which is now culminating in EAMT event=Stratospheric wave 1 and yet as we approached finalisation point it has decreased in amplitude. 

19257B5C-77C8-449F-B351-3770168FD324.thumb.png.74a6867921468106f3445e02c0f56fbb.png

 

No SSW, merely elongation of the PV which does show that even a weaker wave will create enough stress to contort vortex and allow intermissional cold break outs at the Tropispheric level. Just that unless sustained pulses/waves occurs, then it will return to default position.

DD4C391D-B080-4272-9FD5-85C050912FA8.thumb.png.9fd9fb184392dc1044caec4a49b5f262.png

484279C6-D6A7-42FC-A5DC-8E2A5320A94A.thumb.png.428fbcc038dfee9a7c35c11492385f3b.png

CE593AB7-A04A-4094-B6E5-0F5658B03C2B.thumb.png.44906a5cc5ae19d1c187e3005b69e90a.png

 

Why so? 

That we are still on the decent to solar minimum. With that said the sun is continuing to emit bursts of protons/cm3. Negative NAOs struggle to develop in these conditions. Hence the failing of current wave to split PV.0EC21F72-D21C-4982-90E0-FFFD0FD606BC.thumb.jpeg.d02cc0ad1c74dd2eae5832c0778c3ac8.jpeg

 

Geomagnetic bursts charge the magnetosphere add expand it outwards. This permits all levels to elongate and acts as a dampener to wave pulses. The PV has additional upward momentum and hence becomes more taught adding strength.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
31 minutes ago, KyleHenry said:

Many, including myself have been scratching our heads as to why this winter, when the conditions have been so perfect for a loosening of the Polar jet and expansionism of cold air into the lower latitudes has not occurred. 

Signals consistantly showing via the models of HLB in Scandinavia & Greenland, yet failing to materialise each time in terms of predicted longevity. 

MJO entered sector 3 which is now culminating in EAMT event=Stratospheric wave 1 and yet as we approached finalisation point it has decreased in amplitude. 

19257B5C-77C8-449F-B351-3770168FD324.thumb.png.74a6867921468106f3445e02c0f56fbb.png

 

No SSW, merely elongation of the PV which does show that even a weaker wave will create enough stress to contort vortex and allow intermissional cold break outs at the Tropispheric level. Just that unless sustained pulses/waves occurs, then it will return to default position.

DD4C391D-B080-4272-9FD5-85C050912FA8.thumb.png.9fd9fb184392dc1044caec4a49b5f262.png

484279C6-D6A7-42FC-A5DC-8E2A5320A94A.thumb.png.428fbcc038dfee9a7c35c11492385f3b.png

CE593AB7-A04A-4094-B6E5-0F5658B03C2B.thumb.png.44906a5cc5ae19d1c187e3005b69e90a.png

 

Why so? 

That we are still on the decent to solar minimum. With that said the sun is continuing to emit bursts of protons/cm3. Negative NAOs struggle to develop in these conditions. Hence the failing of current wave to split PV.0EC21F72-D21C-4982-90E0-FFFD0FD606BC.thumb.jpeg.d02cc0ad1c74dd2eae5832c0778c3ac8.jpeg

 

Geomagnetic bursts charge the magnetosphere add expand it outwards. This permits all levels to elongate and acts as a dampener to wave pulses. The PV has additional upward momentum and hence becomes more taught adding strength.

Excellent post and the solar influence is very much a pre curser of blocks and blocking.

2008 went cold in February after prolonged spotless sun.

The winters there after where cold with stratospheric warmings.

And I do reckon February could deliver.

But if it doesn't then there's always next winter and hope for a nice dry hot summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
46 minutes ago, KyleHenry said:

Many, including myself have been scratching our heads as to why this winter, when the conditions have been so perfect for a loosening of the Polar jet and expansionism of cold air into the lower latitudes has not occurred. 

Signals consistantly showing via the models of HLB in Scandinavia & Greenland, yet failing to materialise each time in terms of predicted longevity. 

MJO entered sector 3 which is now culminating in EAMT event=Stratospheric wave 1 and yet as we approached finalisation point it has decreased in amplitude. 

19257B5C-77C8-449F-B351-3770168FD324.thumb.png.74a6867921468106f3445e02c0f56fbb.png

 

No SSW, merely elongation of the PV which does show that even a weaker wave will create enough stress to contort vortex and allow intermissional cold break outs at the Tropispheric level. Just that unless sustained pulses/waves occurs, then it will return to default position.

DD4C391D-B080-4272-9FD5-85C050912FA8.thumb.png.9fd9fb184392dc1044caec4a49b5f262.png

484279C6-D6A7-42FC-A5DC-8E2A5320A94A.thumb.png.428fbcc038dfee9a7c35c11492385f3b.png

CE593AB7-A04A-4094-B6E5-0F5658B03C2B.thumb.png.44906a5cc5ae19d1c187e3005b69e90a.png

 

Why so? 

That we are still on the decent to solar minimum. With that said the sun is continuing to emit bursts of protons/cm3. Negative NAOs struggle to develop in these conditions. Hence the failing of current wave to split PV.0EC21F72-D21C-4982-90E0-FFFD0FD606BC.thumb.jpeg.d02cc0ad1c74dd2eae5832c0778c3ac8.jpeg

 

Geomagnetic bursts charge the magnetosphere add expand it outwards. This permits all levels to elongate and acts as a dampener to wave pulses. The PV has additional upward momentum and hence becomes more taught adding strength.

Sorry do not buy that at all. That is one hell of an assumption with very little proof if any at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
20 minutes ago, comet said:

Sorry do not buy that at all. That is one hell of an assumption with very little proof if any at all.

I don't know the specific part of the post you refer to but there is evidence in the Berlin record of SSW being more prevalent around time of solar minimum or in ascending phase.... assuming it is because of the time lag in 'washing out' the residue of max activity. There appears to have been 5 consecutive SSWs (asterisk denotes) at last minimum....

2005/06 15 -72C -77C -54* east -57 -65C -59C late
2006/07 17 -74C -79C -78C west -68* -63C -48 late
2007/08 3 -70 -80C -79C east -61* -49 -53C early
2008/09 1 -72C -75 -69 west -50* -62C -58C late
2009/10 13 -64 -77C -72 east -52* -55 -52C late

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
55 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Excellent post and the solar influence is very much a pre curser of blocks and blocking.

2008 went cold in February after prolonged spotless sun.

The winters there after where cold with stratospheric warmings.

And I do reckon February could deliver.

But if it doesn't then there's always next winter and hope for a nice dry hot summer.

No, February 2008 was not cold.  It was a mild month overall with some very warm days in the second week, although there were a few days that were colder and frosty during the third week under a mid-latitude block.  Feb 2008 was certainly not a month that brought any cold synoptics at all.  Winter 2007-08 was a mild one overall although there were spells of weather that were colder in the spring, in the late part of March and in early to mid April.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
14 hours ago, comet said:

Sorry do not buy that at all. That is one hell of an assumption with very little proof if any at all.

I’ll save you some time.

7EFDD3FE-C350-4E60-8EF5-C8B04A1069DE.thumb.jpeg.f8a5b31ce18bbfc598647d6745d4060d.jpeg

 

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/magnetosphere2.html

 

8102C004-B9E6-4DD9-8478-EE5177CDD641.thumb.jpeg.8287c37c13949cbe3088fdcd660008d4.jpeg

 

https://www.space.com/6229-earth-atmosphere-breathes-rapidly-thought.html

 

Look at the working mechanism of the PV.

03E832CD-3524-4557-8A9D-7BFB04C642BD.thumb.jpeg.d92d011ee2540416af53ca4ba27cc6a1.jpeg

 

The Tropopause and the stratopause are fluid are not only in geographical position but also in heights. Similar to a hurricane, the PV strength/weakness relies on convection. The lower the temperatures that both can attain then the stronger the inertia to be broken down. 

The mesophere has been measured by satellites to expand and contract. Hence why I give my hypothesis as to the whys of this winters characteristics. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
1 hour ago, comet said:

Sorry do not buy that at all. That is one hell of an assumption with very little proof if any at all.

Hi, discussion is fine, however we need different view points to discuss rather than ' am not having that.. !'. Please present a counter point next time. Ta !

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

How long has it been since we've had a official SSW it seem like ages was 2013 the last are is it longer than that? 

I thought there meant to happen every few years.

Edited by booferking
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1 hour ago, KyleHenry said:

The Tropopause and the stratopause are fluid are not only in geographical position but also in heights. Similar to a hurricane, the PV strength/weakness relies on convection. The lower the temperatures that both can attain then the stronger the inertia to be broken down.

Essentially no convection in the stratosphere, high static stability.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Interitus said:

1st February 2017

I said that on the Model thread a few weeks ago but was told it doesn't count as a MMW because it was an early final warming.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I said that on the Model thread a few weeks ago but was told it doesn't count as a MMW because it was an early final warming.

It only lasted a day! Winds were up near 27m/s a couple of weeks later.

The incredibly early final warming was 6th March 2016

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Interitus said:

It only lasted a day! Winds were up near 27m/s a couple of weeks later.

The incredibly early final warming was 6th March 2016

Right - It hasn't been included in Hannah E Attard's compendium of SSW's or it hadn't the last time I looked.

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Right - It hasn't been included in Hannah E Attard's compendium of SSW's or it hadn't the last time I looked.

Because it couldn't be more marginal -

MERRA2 reanalysis a mere -0.07 m/s.

ECMWF analysis at the time was -ve, not got figure to hand (or ERA reanalysis)

NCEP reanalysis +1.48 m/s

JRA-55 reanalysis fell short of SSW also.

All rather arbitrary and academic really.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
13 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Essentially no convection in the stratosphere, high static stability.

Yes I will stand corrected on that point. Should have explained my definition was an analogy in terms of visualising temperatures. 

If we both observe -84C at the upper PV, then we know it’s strength and dynamics.

if we see the upper core of a hurricane/typhoon at -72C then we know it’s towards a category 5. 

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

I think the Feb 2017 one would not be classed as SSW of any note really, regardless of the technicality, one feels that we are due a significant episode..

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

No, February 2008 was not cold.  It was a mild month overall with some very warm days in the second week, although there were a few days that were colder and frosty during the third week under a mid-latitude block.  Feb 2008 was certainly not a month that brought any cold synoptics at all.  Winter 2007-08 was a mild one overall although there were spells of weather that were colder in the spring, in the late part of March and in early to mid April

 

I presume he meant Feb 2009. First half of which was on the cold side.

Quote

 

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Because it couldn't be more marginal -

MERRA2 reanalysis a mere -0.07 m/s.

ECMWF analysis at the time was -ve, not got figure to hand (or ERA reanalysis)

NCEP reanalysis +1.48 m/s

JRA-55 reanalysis fell short of SSW also.

All rather arbitrary and academic really.

 

Probably is arbitrary and academic.

Interestingly Amy Butler doesn't include Feb 17 and she says in the last few days on Twitter that the last SSW was in 2013

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

https://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/954103368988770304

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
13 hours ago, KyleHenry said:

I’ll save you some time.

7EFDD3FE-C350-4E60-8EF5-C8B04A1069DE.thumb.jpeg.f8a5b31ce18bbfc598647d6745d4060d.jpeg

 

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/magnetosphere2.html

 

8102C004-B9E6-4DD9-8478-EE5177CDD641.thumb.jpeg.8287c37c13949cbe3088fdcd660008d4.jpeg

 

https://www.space.com/6229-earth-atmosphere-breathes-rapidly-thought.html

 

Look at the working mechanism of the PV.

03E832CD-3524-4557-8A9D-7BFB04C642BD.thumb.jpeg.d92d011ee2540416af53ca4ba27cc6a1.jpeg

 

The Tropopause and the stratopause are fluid are not only in geographical position but also in heights. Similar to a hurricane, the PV strength/weakness relies on convection. The lower the temperatures that both can attain then the stronger the inertia to be broken down. 

The mesophere has been measured by satellites to expand and contract. Hence why I give my hypothesis as to the whys of this winters characteristics. 

 

 

I to have read about the effects of protons on the mesosphere. The sun has  been very, very quite so far this winter unlike winters in the past like 62/63 for instance, that had much higher solar levels and undoubtedly much higher proton absorption in the mesosphere along with 78/79 etc etc.

To Just assume that this is the reason is quite frankly wrong. Also as Interitus pointed out the stratosphere has very little in the way of water vapour.

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Does anybody remember the paper that mentioned higher incidences of neg NAO and winter blocking in uneven numbered solar cycles?  .... 62-63 and 78-79 were cycles 19 and 21.

From the Tokyo video up the page; she was touching on the subject of two cycles being part of the complete process but different result in each one depending on whether negative or positive rotation.  Sadly, she was difficult to understand and I would like to see their findings in print.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

I have seen enough of this geomag activity now to be confident there is a mode which modifies Hadley Cells, I do not think we have the science - and in particular mesosphere obs to create a teleconnection. 

It is there and one for the future..

 

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2014.00025/full

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
1 hour ago, comet said:

I to have read about the effects of protons on the mesosphere but unlike you I would not pretend to be an expert on the matter. That is the problem on these forums people read a couple of papers on this and that and all of a sudden they are experts. The sun has  been very, very quite so far this winter unlike winters in the past like 62/63 for instance, that had much higher solar levels and undoubtedly much higher proton absorption in the mesosphere along with 78/79 etc etc.

To Just assume that this is the reason is quite frankly wrong. Also as Interitus pointed out the stratosphere has very little in the way of water vapour. I am surprised that an expert like yourself made this mistake. UMMM.

 

Hypothesis. There is no reference made by me as to having any expertise, I put out an idea for discussion or rebuttal. 

 

 

9EF0F2B6-AF77-4272-AF2D-A9BA5D974BEB.jpeg

A17C03ED-F7FF-407B-8336-C226D29C4591.jpeg

6CC75D26-4C6F-4FD2-A058-DB56496CCA7A.jpeg

719CEE08-4F93-46BD-9956-639618594819.jpeg

296FE341-4E3E-4BAC-87E6-405243278A8B.jpeg

18F12352-721A-4C78-A649-3E71E027E245.png

Edited by KyleHenry
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
15 hours ago, sundog said:

 

I presume he meant Feb 2009. First half of which was on the cold side.

Sorry yes 2009.

Interesting argument on both sides.

 

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