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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Would not be surprised that the heights and blocking being shown on the h500 charts are the results of the wave  breaking towards the end of October over north America and Canada and subsequent weakening and split that followed in early November as seen below.

Composite PlotComposite Plot 

Just trying to make sense of where these heights and blocking being shown in the synoptic charts originated from. if this is indeed the case and I am pretty sure it is then it does not look as though their has been much if any disconnect between mid strat and trop after all. In fact it is just a lag effect as vortex weakening and split worked its way down and slowly starts to manifest itself in the trop charts.

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

npst30.png npst30.pngnpst30.png

I don't recall seeing so much stretching and even near-splitting of the vortex at 30 hPa when the movement toward Siberia was in the 10+ day range?

The warming and more importantly height rises in tandem have raised my eyebrows and BA's recent tease suggests they may well shoot off the top of my forehead tomorrow morning...?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

 ECM at day 10 shows classic 3 wave pattern right up to 30hPA. Can't remember ever seeing that before.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Thanks all - wow, talk about letting the cat out of the box! Trying to comprehend what that might lead to down the line... actually, I'd best not waste my time on that while it's just the later stages of a single run!

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

All the more reason that it won't verify then ed!

It would be nice if it did, just to tick it off the list as it were!

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I can post it - will be on Berlin in a few hours 

IMG_0647.thumb.PNG.c1ed4250ab08c401e962108655046f5d.PNG

068e51fa694f14a321ffd3bc77c097dad6c0659e

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

From a strat perspective the new ec op is inline with the previous two (at 10/30/50 hpa) and if anything a little better. Wouldn't mind seeing a mid strat/trop connect in 2 weeks time!  Note the area of zonal wind reversal on yesterday's run late on ...............

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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

From a strat perspective the new ec op is inline with the previous two (at 10/30/50 hpa) and if anything a little better. Wouldn't mind seeing a mid strat/trop connect in 2 weeks time!  Note the area of zonal wind reversal on yesterday's run late on ...............

But those charts are a strat/trop connect - the stratosphere height pattern is being determined by the troposphere -

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.7a51d3f8c846d4b812da38d4fb3a4636.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

From a strat perspective the new ec op is inline with the previous two (at 10/30/50 hpa) and if anything a little better. Wouldn't mind seeing a mid strat/trop connect in 2 weeks time!  Note the area of zonal wind reversal on yesterday's run late on ...............

EDIT!!!!!!

Schoolboy error not refreshing the page ...............

it isn't the same !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

From a strat perspective the new ec op is inline with the previous two (at 10/30/50 hpa) and if anything a little better. Wouldn't mind seeing a mid strat/trop connect in 2 weeks time!  Note the area of zonal wind reversal on yesterday's run late on ...............

I'd be grateful for comments from bluearmy and @Interitus (and other experts) but to my eye, when comparing the Berlin Geopotential & Temp charts for Day 10 (29th Nov) at 10, 50, 150 and 500 hPa, there appears to be a good pattern match developing between trop and strat vortex - so a connect?

5a12830bd4506_Berlin10hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.fafd97ee71ebfceb6421598c4183bdba.gif5a12831767f88_Berlin50hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.acf410f20e3eb602467ed458e5da6c06.gif5a12832299848_Berlin150hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.1e4deef6b78e43c65e411f0dd8f7b41b.gif5a12833747aca_ECMNH500hPa19Novfor29Nov.thumb.png.823c5db8d6994df72ed339a3204c2d26.png

And the reversal of zonal mean zonal winds appears to be moving upwards from the trop? Thanks in advance.

5a1284481434a_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor19Nov.thumb.gif.8baa23c67e2f1645056c5a5c432ca87b.gif5a12845339a95_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor24Nov.thumb.gif.5e2b42c1f00fbe183ed0a72146146ad2.gif5a12845bc6aeb_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.f6c829b5a8c53741c006b337ae45dc95.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

EDIT!!!!!!

Schoolboy error not refreshing the page ...............

it isn't the same !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

not unimpressive but not as interesting as yesterday's 12z was 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

EDIT!!!!!!

Schoolboy error not refreshing the page ...............

it isn't the same !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lol, you are worse than the models for giving false hope :)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Luckily there is plenty of good news for coldies all over the place today !!

Agreed Blue :)

Just looking at the early Dec charts for 2015/16 and we are in a completely different place.

Altho after looking at the gfs0z run i can see little or no warming of the strat?

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
6 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

I'd be grateful for comments from bluearmy and @Interitus (and other experts) but to my eye, when comparing the Berlin Geopotential & Temp charts for Day 10 (29th Nov) at 10, 50, 150 and 500 hPa, there appears to be a good pattern match developing between trop and strat vortex - so a connect?

5a12830bd4506_Berlin10hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.fafd97ee71ebfceb6421598c4183bdba.gif5a12831767f88_Berlin50hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.acf410f20e3eb602467ed458e5da6c06.gif5a12832299848_Berlin150hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.1e4deef6b78e43c65e411f0dd8f7b41b.gif5a12833747aca_ECMNH500hPa19Novfor29Nov.thumb.png.823c5db8d6994df72ed339a3204c2d26.png

And the reversal of zonal mean zonal winds appears to be moving upwards from the trop? Thanks in advance.

5a1284481434a_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor19Nov.thumb.gif.8baa23c67e2f1645056c5a5c432ca87b.gif5a12845339a95_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor24Nov.thumb.gif.5e2b42c1f00fbe183ed0a72146146ad2.gif5a12845bc6aeb_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.f6c829b5a8c53741c006b337ae45dc95.gif

 

I am no expert BW but i read those like you.

Another view from the Tokyo site -charts showing the time series of mean zonal wind speeds -with height and the signs of bottom up warming from wave breakings since October.

jikei_uep_nh.gif

Little wonder the vortex is slower to develop so far.Graphical forecast from the ECM site showing those zonal winds up to mid-levels still not picking up.

fluxes.gif

Back to Tokyo still showing cooling well higher up though

pole30_nh.gif

I guess the ongoing wave action is keeping a lid on zonal winds currently.Not sure how this originated as MJO very quiet now-mountain torque perhaps?

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

Further to the recent posts regarding where we go in next 2-3 weeks with strat. 

Will be interesting to monitor over next week to see how this will progress.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Dr. Cohen going for the same message - a disrupted vortex being pushed towards Eurasia and an increased chance of more significant disruptions going forward. He should be updating his weekly blog later today, so hopefully more thoughts then.

 

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