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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Does anybody know where I can find these charts but for the NH rather than the SH?

1498430979_gfs_sh-u60_20191017(1).thumb.png.b5f3cd8c11c3b1091d1088f52d5a28ce.png

Cheers!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Those are all southern hemisphere charts 

I think they may switch to NH soon, next month maybe?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

H/t Simon Lee

Whilst a short-term wobble to a very-slightly-below average strength Stratospheric #PolarVortex is likely, latest GEFS & GFS forecasts continue to suggest strengthening in early November, with a suggestion of a zonal-mean winds in the upper-end of ERA-Interim climatology.

EHo_RfCWkAI6quE.thumb.jpg.e303acae0db43f70447f6cf026322a3a.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, knocker said:

H/t Simon Lee

Whilst a short-term wobble to a very-slightly-below average strength Stratospheric #PolarVortex is likely, latest GEFS & GFS forecasts continue to suggest strengthening in early November, with a suggestion of a zonal-mean winds in the upper-end of ERA-Interim climatology.

EHo_RfCWkAI6quE.thumb.jpg.e303acae0db43f70447f6cf026322a3a.jpg

would that translate to the troposphere as zonal?  pardon my ignorance at the relationship between the strat and trop..

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

would that translate to the troposphere as zonal?  pardon my ignorance at the relationship between the strat and trop..

I'm not particularly knowledgeable in this area either mushy but as far as I'm aware there is not necessarily a direct correlation at this stage as can be seen, albeit presumably as time goes by a strong strat PV would not be good news vis a meridional jet in the trop

2019102406_f192_10.nonenonehghtnonebrbk_nhem.gfs003.thumb.gif.e4040d4a7ec812da3db57100649ec5c0.gif2019102406_f192_100.nonenonehghtnonebrbk_nhem.gfs003.thumb.gif.41acf4e77307f17a4144efeb67d488a2.gif2019102406_f192_200.nonenonehghtnonebrbk_nhem.gfs003.thumb.gif.c82362816336bf3029948262a1042c72.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
8 hours ago, knocker said:

I'm not particularly knowledgeable in this area either mushy but as far as I'm aware there is not necessarily a direct correlation at this stage as can be seen, albeit presumably as time goes by a strong strat PV would not be good news vis a meridional jet in the trop

2019102406_f192_10.nonenonehghtnonebrbk_nhem.gfs003.thumb.gif.e4040d4a7ec812da3db57100649ec5c0.gif2019102406_f192_100.nonenonehghtnonebrbk_nhem.gfs003.thumb.gif.41acf4e77307f17a4144efeb67d488a2.gif2019102406_f192_200.nonenonehghtnonebrbk_nhem.gfs003.thumb.gif.c82362816336bf3029948262a1042c72.gif

 

Genera, what I know about this topic could be written in 6" letters on a bit of dandruff. But at the expense of being boring....

sample.png
EARTH.NULLSCHOOL.NET

See current wind, weather, ocean, and pollution conditions, as forecast by supercomputers, on an interactive animated map. Updated every three hours.

is priceless..click "earth" and it allows various options

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Really not good news for winter lovers in the UK is it.

When the strat and trop connect, I suspect the NWP is going to look very very grim.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
On 24/10/2019 at 15:03, mushymanrob said:

would that translate to the troposphere as zonal?  pardon my ignorance at the relationship between the strat and trop..

Here’s my take on the coupling of Stratosphere and Troposphere. The process is a two-way interaction through the autumn/winter period and progresses roughly along the following lines. In the early stage of the season when the Strat Polar Vortex (SPV) as measured at 10hPa is undergoing its period of ‘Vortex Intensification’ (VI) and spinning up it is the westerly zonal winds and pressure anomalies that slowly descend towards the troposphere and try and dictate upon the tropospheric pattern and the Trop Polar Vortex (TPV) that we see on the 500hP charts. At the initial stage vertically propagating planetary (Rossby) waves from trop up into (and thus disturbing) the strat are at their lowest. So in early Autumn the SPV is often undisturbed in its development.

But vertically propagating wave activity also starts to ramp up as the northern hemisphere moves from autumn into winter, caused by increasing reaction to factors such as the increasing temp contrast between land and ocean’s, sea ice cover, snow cover, blocking pressure patterns, changing Jetstream pattern, and wind lift over mountain ranges. At this stage we start to see the trop influencing SPV development via these upward propagating waves. As these waves move into the lower and middle stratosphere, they will eventually ‘break’ and deposit heat and momentum that they carry with them into the stratosphere, weakening the SPV. As the stratospheric circulation begins to be changed, these changes are then communicated back downward and (once again) can then impact the circulation in the troposphere.

When there is a strong warming and rapid deceleration of the SPV (a Sudden Stratospheric Warming) the tropopause height over high latitudes decreases, compressing the tropospheric column below which supports the development of high pressure anomalies and blocking over the polar regions – a negative AO. This in turn leads to the advection of cold air towards Northern Europe and the establishment of a negative annular mode pattern in the troposphere.

Hope that helps. We’ll be getting access to good charts from 1st Nov as websites such as Berlin University and Zac Lawrence begin their wintertime monitoring of the NH strat and will be better able to ‘see’ what’s going on up there. And there's lots of research papers to read in the Netwx Learning area here or the link at the top of this page.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Here’s my take on the coupling of Stratosphere and Troposphere. The process is a two-way interaction through the autumn/winter period and progresses roughly along the following lines. In the early stage of the season when the Strat Polar Vortex (SPV) as measured at 10hPa is undergoing its period of ‘Vortex Intensification’ (VI) and spinning up it is the westerly zonal winds and pressure anomalies that slowly descend towards the troposphere and try and dictate upon the tropospheric pattern and the Trop Polar Vortex (TPV) that we see on the 500hP charts. At the initial stage vertically propagating planetary (Rossby) waves from trop up into (and thus disturbing) the strat are at their lowest. So in early Autumn the SPV is often undisturbed in its development.

But vertically propagating wave activity also starts to ramp up as the northern hemisphere moves from autumn into winter, caused by increasing reaction to factors such as the increasing temp contrast between land and ocean’s, sea ice cover, snow cover, blocking pressure patterns, changing Jetstream pattern, and wind lift over mountain ranges. At this stage we start to see the trop influencing SPV development via these upward propagating waves. As these waves move into the lower and middle stratosphere, they will eventually ‘break’ and deposit heat and momentum that they carry with them into the stratosphere, weakening the SPV. As the stratospheric circulation begins to be changed, these changes are then communicated back downward and (once again) can then impact the circulation in the troposphere.

When there is a strong warming and rapid deceleration of the SPV (a Sudden Stratospheric Warming) the tropopause height over high latitudes decreases, compressing the tropospheric column below which supports the development of high pressure anomalies and blocking over the polar regions – a negative AO. This in turn leads to the advection of cold air towards Northern Europe and the establishment of a negative annular mode pattern in the troposphere.

Hope that helps. We’ll be getting access to good charts from 1st Nov as websites such as Berlin University and Zac Lawrence begin their wintertime monitoring of the NH strat and will be better able to ‘see’ what’s going on up there. And there's lots of research papers to read in the Netwx Learning area here or the link at the top of this page.

thank you very much, yes it does help

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
11 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Really not good news for winter lovers in the UK is it.

When the strat and trop connect, I suspect the NWP is going to look very very grim.

November 1988 had some cold weather with early snow.  However, as we know the winter couldn't have been much worse for cold lovers!  Are we in a similar position at the moment to where we were at this point in 1988?

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
48 minutes ago, Don said:

November 1988 had some cold weather with early snow.  However, as we know the winter couldn't have been much worse for cold lovers!  Are we in a similar position at the moment to where we were at this point in 1988?

On the other hand November 1985 was very cold with some early snow I believe, which led on to a pretty mild December only to get cold again at the end and eventually led to the coldest February since 1947. Just saying. Not that I know much about why mind. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
55 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

On the other hand November 1985 was very cold with some early snow I believe, which led on to a pretty mild December only to get cold again at the end and eventually led to the coldest February since 1947. Just saying. Not that I know much about why mind. 

My point really was how does the current strat set up compare to the same point in 1988?  However, I guess the real difference from that year is we are at solar minimum now whereas we were near solar max then?

Good point about 1985, though and I wonder how we compare to that period, too, although the climate has changed somewhat in the last 30 years!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
20 hours ago, Don said:

My point really was how does the current strat set up compare to the same point in 1988?  However, I guess the real difference from that year is we are at solar minimum now whereas we were near solar max then?

 

1988-89 was a strong La Nina

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Here's hoping the disruption plays out as you see it Steve... even at 100hPa we see scatter in the top medians.

Lower down the strat the CFS longer view shows a healthy spin up of the vortex..

image.thumb.png.7c3a0b6e923d79c8e276d3a0f9630695.pngimage.thumb.png.ac99ab6d6604ab3f9287bdbad242bf6d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ikast
  • Location: Ikast

Bemærk, at den stigende opadgående blokering i troposfæren fortsætter nu:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

Selvom vi forventer en styrket PV , forbliver denne tendens ud over dag 10, hvor vi konstant ser toppen af den zonale vindstyrke. Samtidig opretholder vi en negativ NAO og stigende blokering i troposfæren i de første 5-7 dage. Jeg er opmærksom på, at blokeringen nu ser ud til at kunne stige lodret, så vil opadgående bølgeflux fra troposfæren svække stratosfæren og sende en SSW i 30 og 10 hPa? Dette modsætter sig, hvad prognoserne har vist med en stabil negativ NAO siden maj måned. Og er dette som et resultat af, at solvinden er svækket? Jeg synes virkelig, det begynder at se interessant ud, at troposfæren arbejder for at forhindre, at dette stratagem bryder sammen? : D

EDIT: TRANSLATION ADDED:

Note that the increasing upward blocking in the troposphere now continues:

(use original link)

Although we expect a strengthened PV, this trend remains beyond day 10, where we constantly see the peak of zonal wind power. At the same time, we maintain a negative NAO and increasing blockage in the troposphere for the first 5-7 days. I am aware that the blockage now appears to be rising vertically, so will the upward wave flux from the troposphere weaken the stratosphere and send an SSW at 30 and 10 hPa? This contradicts what the forecasts have shown with a stable negative NAO since the month of May. And is this as a result of the solar wind weakening? I really think it's starting to look interesting that the troposphere is working to prevent this stratagem from breaking down?

Edited by Blessed Weather
English translation added
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, frederiksen90 said:

Bemærk, at den stigende opadgående blokering i troposfæren fortsætter nu:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

Selvom vi forventer en styrket PV , forbliver denne tendens ud over dag 10, hvor vi konstant ser toppen af den zonale vindstyrke. Samtidig opretholder vi en negativ NAO og stigende blokering i troposfæren i de første 5-7 dage. Jeg er opmærksom på, at blokeringen nu ser ud til at kunne stige lodret, så vil opadgående bølgeflux fra troposfæren svække stratosfæren og sende en SSW i 30 og 10 hPa? Dette modsætter sig, hvad prognoserne har vist med en stabil negativ NAO siden maj måned. Og er dette som et resultat af, at solvinden er svækket? Jeg synes virkelig, det begynder at se interessant ud, at troposfæren arbejder for at forhindre, at dette stratagem bryder sammen? : D

EDIT: TRANSLATION ADDED:

Note that the increasing upward blocking in the troposphere now continues:

(use original link)

Although we expect a strengthened PV, this trend remains beyond day 10, where we constantly see the peak of zonal wind power. At the same time, we maintain a negative NAO and increasing blockage in the troposphere for the first 5-7 days. I am aware that the blockage now appears to be rising vertically, so will the upward wave flux from the troposphere weaken the stratosphere and send an SSW at 30 and 10 hPa? This contradicts what the forecasts have shown with a stable negative NAO since the month of May. And is this as a result of the solar wind weakening? I really think it's starting to look interesting that the troposphere is working to prevent this stratagem from breaking down?

Is the movement towards an easterly QBO also having an effect in maintaining the disconnect?

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