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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


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Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

Posted Images

14 hours ago, JeffC said:

Apologies, I'm struggling to post pics from my PC...but if you follow the link it should set it all up for you!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=5.87,90.25,327/loc=109.790,44.598

What I'm seeing here is that the LP Polar Vortex has already been shoved off "Pole Position" by the HP which is warmer than the LP PV.

Then if you look where I've placed the marker, there's an area that's much warmer than the surroundings - OK -29C isn't warm but comparatively it is against -72C.

Is this wave 2 starting already or is a little knowledge a dangerous thing?

 

 

This is what I was meaning... A tad warmer this morning 

Screenshot_20181221-065627.png

Edited by JeffC
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Some absolutely devine posts in here from the likes of @Singularity ?, @Catacol, @Interitus and many others. Keep up the sound work guys. Can learn a lot of handy information regarding the Stratosphere and its warming and cooling events in here. 

(Edit: sorry about the ‘?’ in the post after @Singularity - not sure what happened there. ??

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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49 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

FV3 tonight - weakest vortex ever going into January!

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

30 and 100 hPa levels from nwextra

30.thumb.png.2e548ed2e96c9f0aa0b7c2350b9db035.png100.thumb.png.46deea009ede23475702f30402264f41.png

the SV being stretched almost to splitting at mid-level with the effects being felt at the lower level by day 15 on this run.

The 100hPa pattern pretty much reflected in the gefs mean 500hPa chart which should see further ridging in the Atlantic getting further north towards Greenland as the main pv transfers towards the Siberian side.

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Now is this the warming event the models were predicting because it's getting going at a pace now, - 10C @ 10hpa... 

This is over Russia, so is this as a result of an Asian Mountain Torque event? 

Screenshot_20181222-064442.png

Edited by JeffC
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10 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

FV3 tonight - weakest vortex ever going into January!

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

Missed grabbing the data for this run unfortunately but subsequent run minimum u1060 were -2.1 and +4.6 m/s with the vortex reforming to +12 and +24.2 m/s by t384.

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16 minutes ago, JeffC said:

OK, what is the driver then? ? 

Differential planetary wave 1 forcing causing a westward tilt of the vortex with height creating a baroclinic region with descending air resulting in adiabatic warming (closer observation of the charts will also show that the area of lowest temperatures become cooler at the same time where air is ascending).

Edited by Interitus
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7 minutes ago, karyo said:

The gfs operational doesn't look as good as yesterday with the split underwhelming and brief. The parallel is also underwhelming.

EC ensemble mean was pretty confident of a split yesterday 

 

GEFS mean trending more towards a split too

 

Edited by ArHu3
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1 minute ago, karyo said:

I can't remember of another time that GFS and ECM were in so much disagreement at day 10. Tropospherically yes but not stratospherically. We need the GFS to come back on board.

Agreed K..

Always feel uneasy when there are conflicting signals..

Tis a shame we cant see Glosea5.

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6 minutes ago, karyo said:

I can't remember of another time that GFS and ECM were in so much disagreement at day 10. Tropospherically yes but not stratospherically. We need the GFS to come back on board.

It's because we can only see the operationals, not the ensemble but look at Ventrice' tweets the splits are there

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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

It's because we can only see the operationals, not the ensemble but look at Ventrice' tweets the splits are there

True but those tweets are from yesterday when even the gfs operationals looked better. I hope the ensembles are still interested in the split.

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

True but those tweets are from yesterday when even the gfs operationals looked better. I hope the ensembles are still interested in the split.

Every run now takes on more importance , certainly as far as GFS is concerned.. i was dissappointed with the 00Z GFS runs strat wise..

Which model will blink 1st i wonder..

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1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Differential planetary wave 1 forcing causing a westward tilt of the vortex with height creating a baroclinic region with descending air resulting in adiabatic warming (closer observation of the charts will also show that the area of lowest temperatures become cooler at the same time where air is ascending).

Thanks, so is this the start of the SSW event then?

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gfs-10-36.png?6

Hopefully some PSC pics incoming in the next 24-48 hrs looking at the above temp profiles.

FV3 this morning not as progressive on the split as last evening's 12z.. Always caveat the GFS 06z run, i.e. don't trust it. Wonder if the FV3 will be subject to the same 'randomness'..

gfsnh-10-240.png?6

Couple of other plots below - Temp vs Pressure, the u wind profile and also Heat Flux progression.

547251722_TempPressure22Dec.thumb.PNG.7eec034afd19bcee1c0bbca37b4a1672.PNG78813657_u22Dec.thumb.PNG.3a82c284e8f8b1abfa28a0ff3e792163.PNG12918412_vT22Dec.thumb.PNG.9311171a8eb56c779d13ba7decf49d6d.PNG

Then from the excellent link shared earlier by I, a few from the NASA site.

c61a99af-347a-308c-b3cf-35ab4a42d587.thumb.png.6abb21b7c4a53c24a7379178b8417fca.pngd3281628-c016-393a-8a7f-5f442d4102cb.thumb.png.5916a6e9a7093c6bb678e2999dec4456.png9c687b43-47cd-3c5c-a583-7e188043fbff.thumb.png.261bead5f39d2ffb5f8ad558dee290be.png

GMAO still advertising a split vortex, GFS thinking not, GFS FV3 flipping between spilt / no split, ECM retaining the split vortex. A proper model conundrum here...

Over to Zacs site to see the latest view there from around 15:00 today. Updates circa 1000 Eastern which is 1500 for us in the UK.

 

Edited by lorenzo
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