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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


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Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

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Weather Eye in the Times mentions the possibility of a SSW

It quotes Adam Scaife, head of long range prediction at Hadley Centre

"We are very confident of a sudden stratospheric warming and the signal is getting stronger day by day" "The impact on our weather normally comes one or three weeks later as easterly winds brind cold and snow"

It also mentions this 

All through the Equator a belt of thunderstorms circles the globe at regular intervals and by February that band of storms will be in the western Pacific  where it can influence the cold easterlies that invade the UK. 

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2 hours ago, Singularity said:

Could GFS be ineffective at resolving crucial wave-2 forcing from above 10 hPa due to lower resolution than ECM and GloSea5..?

I’m not sure if it’s lower in the first place these days - if anyone knows and can share that’d be much appreciated.

 

Regardless, ECM and GloSea5 have my trust over GFS.

I have more trust in my bunions playing up than the GFS.

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Sorry if this isn't suitable for the thread but SSW events are a relatively new and rapidly developing area of science in weather forecasting. The potential for these to affect the UK climate are clear from the SSW warming event that occurred last year.

The first time I remember it really being talked about was the early February 2009 easterly. My knowledge on this particular branch of meteorology is lacking compared to the more experienced members. Could someone post a beginners guide to a strat event, how they occur, what the charts represent and how it manifests into increased chances of cold spells across the North Hemisphere.

Admittedly all I know is that they reverse winds in the upper atmosphere which eventually propogate down to the surface. It would be useful I think if a knowledgeable poster did a guide with some basic images that we can go back to if one hasn't been done already (a sticky thread perhaps). A textbook SSW event from its beginnings to its finish, me and many newbies to this area would highly appreciate it ?.

Thanks ? 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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34 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Sorry if this isn't suitable for the thread but SSW events are a relatively new and rapidly developing area of science in weather forecasting. The potential for these to affect the UK climate are clear from the SSW warming event that occurred last year.

The first time I remember it really being talked about was the early February 2009 easterly. My knowledge on this particular branch of meteorology is lacking compared to the more experienced members. Could someone post a beginners guide to a strat event, how they occur, what the charts represent and how it manifests into increased chances of cold spells across the North Hemisphere.

Admittedly all I know is that they reverse winds in the upper atmosphere which eventually propogate down to the surface. It would be useful I think if a knowledgeable poster did a guide with some basic images that we can go back to if one hasn't been done already (a sticky thread perhaps). A textbook SSW event from its beginnings to its finish, me and many newbies to this area would highly appreciate it ?.

Thanks ? 

Might I suggest reading page 1 of the thread as a kick off  ? 

Edited by bluearmy
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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Weather Eye in the Times mentions the possibility of a SSW

It quotes Adam Scaife, head of long range prediction at Hadley Centre

"We are very confident of a sudden stratospheric warming and the signal is getting stronger day by day" "The impact on our weather normally comes one or three weeks later as easterly winds brind cold and snow"

It also mentions this 

All through the Equator a belt of thunderstorms circles the globe at regular intervals and by February that band of storms will be in the western Pacific  where it can influence the cold easterlies that invade the UK. 

Yes - this is the timing of the MJO phase that has been mentioned previously. The timing could not be better to be honest - peak assistance from the 6-7-8 orbit will be from mid Jan.

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35 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Might I suggest reading page 1 of the thread as a kick off  ? 

Yes I have read through it and understood some parts, it would be good to see a bunch of charts showing an SSW event taking place in a few brief steps. I know the reality is more complex but often a string of simple diagrams can make everything click. Is it possible to get a chronology of an SSW event through synoptic charts for example or something along those lines, highlighting the basic steps of the process?

e.g. for the Feb 2018 SSW event this first happens to give signs an SSW event was imminent

then we saw warming of the temperatures in the troposphere

this is how it propogates down to the surface

and this is how it results in an easterly. 

etc.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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19 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - this is the timing of the MJO phase that has been mentioned previously. The timing could not be better to be honest - peak assistance from the 6-7-8 orbit will be from mid Jan.

Hi Catacol

With how everything has played out in the atmosphere etc.... during the last two weeks or so, are you still as excited, hopeful and upbeat as you were two weeks or so ago about a memorable winter from Here on in. Well I should say from early January ?

Cheers

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19 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes I have read through it and understood some parts, it would be good to see a bunch of charts showing an SSW event taking place in a few brief steps. I know the reality is more complex but often a string of simple diagrams can make everything click. Is it possible to get a chronology of an SSW event through synoptic charts for example or something along those lines, highlighting the basic steps of the process?

e.g. for the Feb 2018 SSW event this first happens to give signs an SSW event was imminent

then we saw warming of the temperatures in the troposphere

this is how it propogates down to the surface

and this is how it results in an easterly. 

etc.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2584%3ATLCOTN>2.0.CO%3B2

This research paper could be of use ?

Cheers

Matt

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29 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Hi Catacol

With how everything has played out in the atmosphere etc.... during the last two weeks or so, are you still as excited, hopeful and upbeat as you were two weeks or so ago about a memorable winter from Here on in. Well I should say from early January ?

Cheers

Yes - just because the start didn't quite lift off as hoped this week doesn't mean all the drivers and signals have disappeared. The atmosphere works in cycles and is driven by processes that operate over longer time spans than 1 week - so everything is still in place for a potentially great season. We'll just have to wait for the next opportunity to get the block in place....which will now be in the run up to New Year once the torque cycles come back around and vortex stress is growing. 

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks, surely it would be an SSW if it went further though.

You'd think so but a over a week after the ECM, at what strength and would it recover? An interesting test as this is replacing the current GFS remember which went for -2.8 and -4 m/s on the 06 and 12z. Maybe more importantly the date came forward from the 2nd Jan to Dec 28th.

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8 minutes ago, Interitus said:

You'd think so but a over a week after the ECM, at what strength and would it recover? An interesting test as this is replacing the current GFS remember which went for -2.8 and -4 m/s on the 06 and 12z. Maybe more importantly the date came forward from the 2nd Jan to Dec 28th.

It looked like on the current GFS 12z that it was going to run out of steam before a proper split, personally i think you need a really far and wide split with a huge area of ridging all the way from Greenland and Norway.

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Anyone else really confused by how GFS OP continues to be out of sync with its own suite WRT to the temps.

gfsnh-10-324.png?12

This at 324Hrs from GFS OP.


Control-

gensnh-0-7-324.png


Perb 4

gensnh-4-7-324.png


Perb 10

gensnh-10-7-324.png

Perb 14

gensnh-14-7-324.png


These are just a few examples but more or less all of them have a more pronounced displacement warming than the op
 

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20 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Anyone else really confused by how GFS OP continues to be out of sync with its own suite WRT to the temps.



 

I have noticed this before, in the trop i rarely buy into the theory that the OP can lead the way without any ensembles in support and the whole suite suddenly flip, however, i have noticed that Stratospheric events can be different, the op can lead the way, however, the ensembles usually catch on a few runs later, as it gets nearer to a reliable timeframe.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have noticed this before, in the trop i rarely buy into the theory that the OP can lead the way without any ensembles in support, however, i have noticed that Stratospheric events can be different, the op can lead the way, however, the ensembles usually catch on a few runs later, as it gets nearer to a reliable timeframe.

Yes agree, but by now I would be expecting them to be pretty much at least attempting to follow the op. If anything they are heading further in the other direction and actually the they all support each other in the warming continuing around Scandi with some warming into Europe.

gensnh-5-7-384.png

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1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yes agree, but by now I would be expecting them to be pretty much at least attempting to follow the op. If anything they are heading further in the other direction and actually the they all support each other in the warming continuing around Scandi with some warming into Europe.

gensnh-5-7-384.png

Agreed, something will give very soon.

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