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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    13 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    Suspect Mike Ventrice will be tweeting the eps mean at t360 soon. Very similar to gfs 18z and 06z. Strong mid winter warming looking very likely.

    The gfs 18z actually split the vortex from the trop up -  or did you mean the gefs ???

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    Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

    so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

    For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

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    Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

    EPS is top down, but for indicative purposes, looks very similar at 10 hPa to gfs 06z wrt placement of ridge and residual parts of SPV.

    Edited by Glacier Point
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The JMA was toasty on last night's run at 240?

    JN240-5.thumb.GIF.8ff5cbd9f1b167ee74a4133878147b15.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

    I believe I recall Crewe Cold saying that he thought that the LRF models that are going for major HLB this winter are doing this predicated on a major mid winter SSW, and that without the SSW it will difficult to get any HLB at all this winter. Does anyone else agree with this assessment?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    19 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

    I believe I recall Crewe Cold saying that he thought that the LRF models that are going for major HLB this winter are doing this predicated on a major mid winter SSW, and that without the SSW it will difficult to get any HLB at all this winter. Does anyone else agree with this assessment?

    Think the question is now moot - as the SSW is going to happen, and as far as I understand them, the subsequent signals are likely, but not absolutely certain, to be very favourable for UK cold.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    It’s a treat to have such an active Stratospheric thread this early in the season. (Thanks to all the contributors)

    Events high up in the atmosphere are looking more and more likely to be influencing the second and possibly third months of winter. How this eventually shakes out for our little patch will be fascinating. But on past experience SSWs are rarely boring and more often than not deliver some proper cold to the UK in one form or another. I await the results with intrigue, fascination and expectation. ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    34 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    EPS is top down, but for indicative purposes, looks very similar at 10 hPa to gfs 06z wrt placement of ridge and residual parts of SPV.

    A much more preferred route as more likely to verify at this range ...... a split likely to be trop up would rely on patterns quiet a way off whereas even if the top down is a result of trop influences, these would be occurring at a timescale when the trop modelling is far more reliable. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    45 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

    I believe I recall Crewe Cold saying that he thought that the LRF models that are going for major HLB this winter are doing this predicated on a major mid winter SSW, and that without the SSW it will difficult to get any HLB at all this winter. Does anyone else agree with this assessment?

    It is a moot point now I think, but it seems that yes, they were indeed picking up on a SSW signal.

    Also, yes I believe that were we not to see a SSW, we'd be struggling to get any wintry weather of a sustained note.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

    Thanks for the replies, i guess it was something of a silly question, but it's interesting that so much would hinge on this SSW.

    But of course there's still the issue of whether the impending SSW will be powerful enough, occur in right place etc. I think, but I'm no expert?

    Fingers crossed. 

    Edited by Bruegelian
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, StormyWeather28 said:

    Not quite sure where to post this as I'm a noob. I will be spending two weeks over Christmas  visiting my sister in Eastern France 40 miles west of basel on the Swiss border 300m asl . Looking at the current output it didn't look too rosy for cold and snow. Could the SSW effects be felt there before January the 5th and I get snowed in haha. Sorry for the stupid post but I don't know where else to ask haha

     Very Doubtful but at 1000 feet on west Swiss border, you could easily get snowed in with standard winter weather ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    3 hours ago, Bruegelian said:

    I believe I recall Crewe Cold saying that he thought that the LRF models that are going for major HLB this winter are doing this predicated on a major mid winter SSW, and that without the SSW it will difficult to get any HLB at all this winter. Does anyone else agree with this assessment?

    There is no doubt that a SSW allows a much greater degree of sustained cold. Without it blocking in the right place is difficult (not impossible...) to get. Many got a taste of winter over the weekend...and we are only at the beginning. Much to be optimistic about given current setup in both the pacific and consequently in the strat. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
    10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Without it blocking in the right place is difficult (not impossible...) to get.

    Really, so the majority of sustained UK cold spells are preceded by a SSW? Interesting. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Although I would not try predict a ssw on a seasonal basis due to my own relatively basic knowledge I find it interesting that having gone for 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2010 as analogues, the first three of those all had a SSW event in the January.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    10 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Although I would not try predict a ssw on a seasonal basis due to my own relatively basic knowledge I find it interesting that having gone for 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2010 as analogues, the first three of those all had a SSW event in the January.

    Interesting, as 2002, 2004 and 2008 didn’t give us particularly memorable winters?

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
    On ‎23‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 11:16, nick sussex said:

    Thanks to all who contributed to this thread over the winter months .

    Certainly that SSW delivered for coldies , let’s hope we get another next winter but a bit earlier in the season .

    Looks like you brought us a gift Nick, as we will quite certainly now will be having one a bit earlier ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    Check out the other tweets in James Warner’s thread - interesting stuff. 

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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain

    What’s the chance of getting split vortex  as at the moment just looks like a displacement of it which doesn’t gRuntee us cold what happend in 2018 that followed the cold spell split or displacement ??? 

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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
    10 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

    What’s the chance of getting split vortex  as at the moment just looks like a displacement of it which doesn’t gRuntee us cold what happend in 2018 that followed the cold spell split or displacement ??? 

    And is that’s why models don’t look that exciting at the moment not trying to be the grinch as love snow just want to hear your guys views ?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
    8 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

    Interesting, as 2002, 2004 and 2008 didn’t give us particularly memorable winters?

    There was a SSW in January of 2009.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    8 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

    Interesting, as 2002, 2004 and 2008 didn’t give us particularly memorable winters?

    Winter 09 was cold but yeah, 03 and 05 were nothing special for the UK albeit winter 03 was brutal in the US so i suspect we were unlucky.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Gfs fi seems to be modelling a split and then the vortex begins to recover fairly soon after from the top down ......the split isn’t reliably modelled as yet so best watched without any knowledge of the eps position .....

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Gfs fi seems to be modelling a split and then the vortex begins to recover fairly soon after from the top down ......the split isn’t reliably modelled as yet so best watched without any knowledge of the eps position .....

    Apparently the EPS is showing a split at 10mb , the guys over on 33andrain were saying , I’m presuming this is behind a paywall?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    6 minutes ago, Raythan said:

    Apparently the EPS is showing a split at 10mb , the guys over on 33andrain were saying , I’m presuming this is behind a paywall?

    Yep last nights Eps did indeed show a split  many comments on twitter regarding this. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

    Screenshot_20181217-131632.thumb.jpg.9bbc87827907d86dc538cb1703e93732.jpg Screenshot_20181217-131833.thumb.jpg.71ebffeb1752bf67a925dbfb7b40f5b1.jpg

     

    Ian Fergusson liked both of these posts so presuming we are still going to see a split. 

    I know he touted the 9th of Jan for first day winds revert to easterly so maybe its a little early to become dispondant.

    Also we have Glosea showing a displacement followed by a split and I am yet to see it faulter wrt to the strat. 

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