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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


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Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

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34 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

So guys is there a ssw on the way mid December or end ??

Or not at all ..............

Seems more than feasible that an ssw isn’t required this winter to bring nw Europe some deep cold 

 

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42 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

So guys is there a ssw on the way mid December or end ??

There is a warming currently forecast on the Canadian side but what interests me is the possibility of another warming soon after on the Eurasian side as shown on the GFS OP and Parallel. Of coarse its far out so still possible it may not happen or the warming won't be as strong as currently shown but either way its a interesting time. 

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25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Or not at all ..............

Seems more than feasible that an ssw isn’t required this winter to bring nw Europe some deep cold 

 

I'm not so convinced anymore a ssw is a precursor to cold, looking at the dates of known ssws, they mostly seem to occur after cold periods and after many ssws we didn't get a new cold event here in Western Europe 

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjnqa2-ioHfAhWH66QKHU6ADfIQFjAAegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw2c8j-xVmsFCgg4w3OeL3qf

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Just stumbled on this tweet, it seems my above feelings were right, a displacement leads to warmth in Europe, we need a split or no ssw at all

 

 

 

Edited by ArHu3
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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

‘It’s not always that simple’ .........

btw, gefs getting v toasty nw late on ...... vortex v displaced to Siberia and ridge over Canada 

If it was to move and heights were to rise in its place , would that cause more warming / distress in the strat ?

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6 minutes ago, Raythan said:

If it was to move and heights were to rise in its place , would that cause more warming / distress in the strat ?

Any amplification in th trop will lead to more stress on the strat ........

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May I ask a numpty question …..been reading the Solar thread and it seems the unusually quiet Sun is having quite an impact on the thermosphere, producing cooling. What (if any) impact will this have on the stratosphere?

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1 hour ago, jethro said:

May I ask a numpty question …..been reading the Solar thread and it seems the unusually quiet Sun is having quite an impact on the thermosphere, producing cooling. What (if any) impact will this have on the stratosphere?

Thank you, Jethro. That's a question I would have asked, myself, had I not been afraid of feeling a right twit!?

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20 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

FWIW, UK Met model showing a full on warming event for end of the year, as is CFS (which has continued to do so for the last few weeks).

That's not wholly surprising given long lead thoughts of stratospheric behaviour and this plot which, if verified, would be signalling a stratospheric warming within 9 days:

NH_HGT_10mb_360.thumb.gif.f44dfb2496b728b49a03e0d3473cb5a2.gif

This is a displacement right? From what I understood is that these displacements are generally very unfavorable for cold in western Europe

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18 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

This is a displacement right? From what I understood is that these displacements are generally very unfavorable for cold in western Europe

Depends where the displacement is, with the above chart you can see the vortex push right over to Siberia due to the Wave being more of Canadian warming which if memory serves me correctly lead Dec 2010.

This is beginning to show in the GFS, retrogression of our Scandi block to somewhere more Greenland bound as the PV looks likely to set-up shop NE leading to a potential of a more northern cold blast. There's a lot of water to flow under the bridge first but the GFS is playing with it so clearly some kind of signal is at play.

But I agree that a split is much better for us rather than just a displacement.

Edited by Snowman.
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Continuing on the Wave 1 shown at T0 is your standard Wave 1 which pushes the PV closer to our north.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2018120306/NH_HGT_10mb_000.gif

Similar to that of December 2015 which wasn't very pleasant in terms of weather for us here. PV while under some stress was just displaced into our vicinity which caused some horribly stormy weather.

Edited by Snowman.
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