Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

[Singularity]

Such second-phase warming seems extremely rare in the archives. Could it become the closest we've ever made it to destroying both daughter vortices at the 10 hPa level following a wave-2 split (i.e. not with a final warming event involved)?

[chionomaniac]

8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Such second-phase warming seems extremely rare in the archives. Could it become the closest we've ever made it to destroying both daughter vortices at the 10 hPa level following a wave-2 split (i.e. not with a final warming event involved)?

I think so but to be fair I haven't checked the Martineau site to compare for a while.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Glacier Point]

This is going to be a fantastic event to monitor.

A top tercile magnitude MJO event in the Indian Ocean leads to a potential record strength reversal in zonal winds, leads to what tropospheric impacts ?

[KyleHenry]

46 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

This is going to be a fantastic event to monitor.

A top tercile magnitude MJO event in the Indian Ocean leads to a potential record strength reversal in zonal winds, leads to what tropospheric impacts ?

Omega

[lorenzo]

Cannot agree more - given the development of this thread thanks to Ed's curation over the years, we now have a signature event in real time to drool over and examine everything that happens across the myriad of improved output vs. what we previously got to see.The animations are incredible.

Twitter helping a lot today - although WDT Futures is dead - someone kept the base links.... Whoooosh ! @Catacol @Tamara @Singularity @Glacier Point attached in notepad doc too below, if there are any new sites taking up the mantle pls share. For now these are still around...add that EAMT to the mixing pot.

FT https://futures.wdtinc.com/wp-content/uploads/wdtfutures/daily_total/gltauf.90day.gif

MT https://futures.wdtinc.com/wp-content/uploads/wdtfutures/daily_total/gltaum.90day.gif

Tendency AAM https://futures.wdtinc.com/wp-content/uploads/wdtfutures/daily_total/glcalctend.sig.90day.gif

Relative AAM https://futures.wdtinc.com/wp-content/uploads/wdtfutures/daily_total/gltend.sig.90day.gif

Total AAM https://futures.wdtinc.com/wp-content/uploads/wdtfutures/daily_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif

GWO 40 https://futures.wdtinc.com/wp-content/uploads/wdtfutures/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

Daaam.txt

 

Finally this post from Twitter is absolutely First Class from Dr. Lopez - urge you all to have a read..

Why should I care about SSW...

 

 

Edited February 7, 2018 by lorenzo

[joggs]

51 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

This is going to be a fantastic event to monitor.

A top tercile magnitude MJO event in the Indian Ocean leads to a potential record strength reversal in zonal winds, leads to what tropospheric impacts ?

What are your thoughts Gp?.

Super fast response?.

Really interesting to how this has built up and how it will play out.

Appreciate any pointers to look for.

Thanks.

And chio!!!!

Edited February 7, 2018 by joggs

[ghoneym]

 January 2009....... Feb 2018........ nice similarity in wind reversal intensity.

 SSW + 30 days snow anomaly plot 

Thanks for the link @lorenzo

[knocker]

 

[damianslaw]

I've read a few reports about how the projected initial warming at least is mirroring events in late Dec 1984, a very fast response occured, by the 4 Jan we had extensive northern blocking and it ushered in a very cold 2 weeks, and a generally very cold winter thereafter.

The Jan 2009 event saw another very quick response, perhaps a week tops. 

Not sure about Jan 2013, that seemed much later in mid Feb but we were rewarded with the exceptional synoptics of March 2013. 

The models may continue to suggest northern heights mid month, but it won't be until the warming occurs we will know for certain how things pan out - but there is strong suggestion it will be a rapid response.

[summer blizzard]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I've read a few reports about how the projected initial warming at least is mirroring events in late Dec 1984, a very fast response occured, by the 4 Jan we had extensive northern blocking and it ushered in a very cold 2 weeks, and a generally very cold winter thereafter.

The Jan 2009 event saw another very quick response, perhaps a week tops. 

Not sure about Jan 2013, that seemed much later in mid Feb but we were rewarded with the exceptional synoptics of March 2013. 

The models may continue to suggest northern heights mid month, but it won't be until the warming occurs we will know for certain how things pan out - but there is strong suggestion it will be a rapid response.

The 2013 event occurred right at the start of January and was probably the reason we saw such a frigid and snowy second half. Feb 13 was mainly dry and sunny with lots of mid-lattitude blocking before significant wave activity in late Feb caused the cold March (one assumes the SSW had already softened the remaining vortex so to speak making the wave activity so impactful). 

The Jan and March 13 cold periods though were both completely separate in cause. 

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra2/wind/u60n_10_2012_merra2.pdf

[damianslaw]

Oh yes I should have retracted my musings about Jan 2013, it did occur very early and we had a 2 week very cold period, with a generally cold Feb, but it turned milder end Jan and into Feb. 

 

[SMU]

4 hours ago, KyleHenry said:

Omega

no. If it lands record breaking then its a 4 wave pattern.

[JeffC]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=132.66,107.74,164/loc=142.864,59.003

Taking on an interesting shape now...

[Normal Normal Normal]

This is actually a Stratosphere warming where the N Hemisphere stratosphere at 10mb is going to average negative anomaly. 

Edited February 8, 2018 by Normal Normal Normal

[Summer Sun]

Just in case some don't pop into the tweets thread Ian F has tweeted the follow

"W COUNTRY Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) takes place into this weekend, albeit ultimate outcome for UK weather later in Feb far from certain. Inevitably increasing spread in ECMWF model solutions from w/c 18th & not least re temperatures: any clarity still some way off!"

[bluearmy]

Berlin are going to need to rescale their flux zonal flow chart !!

Edited February 8, 2018 by bluearmy

[fromey]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Berlin are going to need to rescale their flux zonal flow chart !!

Any chance of seeing or is there a website?

still learning many thanks

[Summer Sun]

 

[tommyboy]

I know its exciting times with a SSW looking extremely likely, but as an "observer from the sidelines" for serval years now was wondering if anyone knows where "Recretos" (and his brilliant modelling) has gone?

[ukpaul]

1 hour ago, tommyboy said:

I know its exciting times with a SSW looking extremely likely, but as an "observer from the sidelines" for serval years now was wondering if anyone knows where "Recretos" (and his brilliant modelling) has gone?

Last time I came across 'Recretos', he was posting about volcanic activity on a volcano forum (volcanos being another interest of mine). Looks like he's diversifying!

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, fromey said:

Any chance of seeing or is there a website?

still learning many thanks

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

[fromey]

23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

Thank you

[swebby]

1 hour ago, ukpaul said:

Last time I came across 'Recretos', he was posting about volcanic activity on a volcano forum (volcanos being another interest of mine). Looks like he's diversifying!

Likewise - plotting Icelandic earthquake activity.  The lack of strat activity over the past winters has not really given him much to play with, hopefully this event could coax him back to the site. 

I see the ECM has a greenland high at the end of it's run this morning, also see a number of MJO forecasts maintaining good amplitude in phase 7/8 - is that further fuel to the fire for the start warming?

[Summer Sun]