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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think far from being 'quack science' it will prove one of the most important areas of science as general warming alters the current patterns we have been used to? 

I had a very limited understanding of SSW's and their formation but in the past we were looking at tropospheric winds lifting off from high plateaus to impact the tropopause and impact the strat?

This does not seem to be the path taken by this warming?

If we see alterations occurring in the strat ( like the QBO hiccough a couple of years back?) then will they not also impact the Trop below ( and so our weathers?)

In a changing world a better understanding of ALL our atmosphere , and its relationships with other layers, is sure really important to understand? 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Just to make it clear this thread is for discussing current conditions and forecasts for the stratosphere. If anyone would like to discuss any impacts of climate change on the stratosphere then please make a relevant thread in the climate area of the forum and discuss there.

Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
1 hour ago, masheeuk said:

Noticed some of the names of recent posters in this thread and am very dissappointed. Be prepared for this to slowly be taken apart with people ending up saying this is quack science. I am not going to wait until that happens and will give up on this one now.

Not sure - who you are referring to here or why, or indeed why you express disappointment - very unclear.

Regarding things getting taken apart - I would suggest it's the vortex that's being dismantled, and the science clearly seeks to understand why, hence the citation of a wide variety of knowledgeable atmospheric scientists from the Twitter Sphere. Any suggestions on how discussion can be improved are welcomed! But, if you have given up on - well , whatever it is you have given up on - all the best!

5a79feb87f828_Tuestemp.thumb.PNG.ffd97cb3101545f4e364459d2d564a33.PNG5a79febada8e5_TuesU.thumb.PNG.42efe2813da0678d43f4b97d0485f233.PNG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

When is the SSW likely to be reflected in the NWP/model output? So far nothing is happening this side of T+240. 

There are hints, but we are unlikely to see any -NAO for a while imo. My thoughts 2 days ago were from day 10 and the first response is more likely with blocking over Scandi heading westwards. The displaced Hudson bay daughter vortex will need to either be destroyed or change position first. The second warming could reduce its intensity enough to allow a -NAO. Otherwise we will have to wait until the initial upper effects of the SSW subside and this daughter migrates poleward.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

When is the SSW likely to be reflected in the NWP/model output? So far nothing is happening this side of T+240. 

Personally I'm not expecting anything until after the 20th. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
53 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

When is the SSW likely to be reflected in the NWP/model output? So far nothing is happening this side of T+240. 

This was being discussed by Blue army and Nick Sussex over in the mod thread about an hour ago, general consensus from them was 17th/18th Feb for cold effect to start being felt, which given that ECM goes out 10 days that we ought to see it showing some eye candy from tomorrow or Thursday. the Gfs going out longer is already showing glimpses in its extended modelling.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
6 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

This was being discussed by Blue army and Nick Sussex over in the mod thread about an hour ago, general consensus from them was 17th/18th Feb for cold effect to start being felt, which given that ECM goes out 10 days that we ought to see it showing some eye candy from tomorrow or Thursday. the Gfs going out longer is already showing glimpses in its extended modelling.

Brill, thanks mate. 

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife

Stratosphere just got some extra heat thanks to Falcon heavy, well worth a watch incredible stuff

 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
5 hours ago, lorenzo said:

Latest from the Dow Jones Vortex chart... 

Stunning

u_65N_10hpa.thumb.png.70069868ec4451a27163cec14dd97f31.png u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

Sam Lillo tweet re reversal - always a wizard with charts!

And for old times sake - remember looking at these ones :)

gfs_t30_nh_f168.thumb.png.21a02cedc0752d6efdf73d67f758b7b9.png

 

Quick question... Do you know what the deal is with some using specifically 65N and not 60? Doesn’t Amy Butler do this as well? The charts are often going to look that little bit more extreme using 65N.  

Either way, awesome looking graphs still!!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
5 hours ago, Sneachtastorm said:

Does an SSW ever lead to a Northerly flow for example Greenland high or is it always an Easterly if we manage to get lucky from it? 

It increases the chances of HLB, a Northerly from a Greenland High would also be a possibility.

But with the MJO where it is in the Pacific and the current state of the vortex, more chance of heights building to the north east, at least initially 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

^^^ Meant Hannah Attard in my post above from yesterday , not Amy Butler!^^^

 

More stunning charts this morning. Now showing at least a 5 day SSW.

4ACC6ED0-CCB3-4EFF-B537-6D81FFC6C3E1.thumb.gif.12a808c005341d35a5ca41f234e7536b.gif

In fact, every daily forecast we get closer to it commencing a day earlier on the 11th as well, now just a whisker away.

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Amazing, this SSW, how intens the warming is and how prolonged. It gets another boost in about ten days, over Northern Canada, where the cold pole has been centered for months this winter. 

It is bound to have some effect on the troposphere and it looks as if there are some signs of it, on the progs.

I very well understand the feelings of disappointment concerning the effect of this SSW, but it is hard to knock down a very strong tropospheric vortex in a very persistent winter like this. Let's see how it works out this time. 

tqFXqx4.png K3RsX6B.png

 

Edited by Paul123
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Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Always Snow.
  • Location: Swindon
11 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

This was being discussed by Blue army and Nick Sussex over in the mod thread about an hour ago, general consensus from them was 17th/18th Feb for cold effect to start being felt, which given that ECM goes out 10 days that we ought to see it showing some eye candy from tomorrow or Thursday. the Gfs going out longer is already showing glimpses in its extended modelling.

This is also backed up on Twitter by DrAB and Fergie who tweeted about a VQTR of 3 days on one run

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
3 hours ago, s4lancia said:

^^^ Meant Hannah Attard in my post above from yesterday , not Amy Butler!^^^

 

More stunning charts this morning. Now showing at least a 5 day SSW.

4ACC6ED0-CCB3-4EFF-B537-6D81FFC6C3E1.thumb.gif.12a808c005341d35a5ca41f234e7536b.gif

In fact, every daily forecast we get closer to it commencing a day earlier on the 11th as well, now just a whisker away.

Yes, it looks brilliant! At this close range we should be confident that it will not downgrade.

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
14 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

There are hints, but we are unlikely to see any -NAO for a while imo. My thoughts 2 days ago were from day 10 and the first response is more likely with blocking over Scandi heading westwards. The displaced Hudson bay daughter vortex will need to either be destroyed or change position first. The second warming could reduce its intensity enough to allow a -NAO. Otherwise we will have to wait until the initial upper effects of the SSW subside and this daughter migrates poleward.

So we could potentially be waiting until well into March based on what you are saying ??, too many if's and but's and could's and maybe's for my liking.

So would you say that the Easterly that the GFS has been churning out deep into FI over the past few days is unrelated to the SSW ? or is it like you say a first response ?

If it's NOT related I wonder what effect a SSW would have on a Scandi high that is already in Situ when the effects are being felt on the ground as it were ? are there any instances when this has happened in the past I wonder ?

Edited by EML Network
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
3 minutes ago, EML Network said:

So we could potentially be waiting until well into March based on what you are saying ??, too many if's and but's and could's and maybe's for my liking.

So would you say that the Easterly that the GFS has been churning out deep into FI over the past few days is unrelated to the SSW ? or is it like you say a first response ?

If so I wonder what effect a SSW would have on a Scandi high that is in Situ when the effects are being felt on the ground as it were ? are there any instances when this has happened in the past I wonder ?

No - If you have read all my posts over the last few days ( and I certainly don't blame anyone who hasn't lol !!!) then any Easterly is the first response as the Siberian vortex gets removed by the SSW. The second phase is the area more in doubt and that is whether or not we can get a -ve NAO with blocking to our NW and this very much will be influenced by what happens to the second daughter vortex - currently we are seeing a second phase warming which will reduce its intensity - so hopefully this brings the NAO down too.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
14 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

There are hints, but we are unlikely to see any -NAO for a while imo. My thoughts 2 days ago were from day 10 and the first response is more likely with blocking over Scandi heading westwards. The displaced Hudson bay daughter vortex will need to either be destroyed or change position first. The second warming could reduce its intensity enough to allow a -NAO. Otherwise we will have to wait until the initial upper effects of the SSW subside and this daughter migrates poleward.

And the GFS has just started to show this in its latter frames.

It's all very exciting maybe bit late in the season but I think over all the net weather winter forecasts has done very well.

And luckily we have a major strat event unfolding which of course is excellent news and it's more data and information for science and forecasting.

It feels like a late version of 2009/2010.

Which of course is undeniable was a exciting event with very early start.

Out of curiosity what is the biggest record breaking stratospheric event and when?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
24 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

And the GFS has just started to show this in its latter frames.

It's all very exciting maybe bit late in the season but I think over all the net weather winter forecasts has done very well.

And luckily we have a major strat event unfolding which of course is excellent news and it's more data and information for science and forecasting.

It feels like a late version of 2009/2010.

Which of course is undeniable was a exciting event with very early start.

Out of curiosity what is the biggest record breaking stratospheric event and when?

Feb 2009 off the top of my head for u wind reversal

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Chio,is it right to say,the bigger the warming and severity of the vortex,the quicker the response?

Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

No - If you have read all my posts over the last few days ( and I certainly don't blame anyone who hasn't lol !!!) then any Easterly is the first response as the Siberian vortex gets removed by the SSW. The second phase is the area more in doubt and that is whether or not we can get a -ve NAO with blocking to our NW and this very much will be influenced by what happens to the second daughter vortex - currently we are seeing a second phase warming which will reduce its intensity - so hopefully this brings the NAO down too.

Scandi tonic, GIN chaser. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
1 hour ago, joggs said:

Chio,is it right to say,the bigger the warming and severity of the vortex,the quicker the response?

Thanks.

 yes and no.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

ecmwf10f240.thumb.gif.a6a313dd65acb1f5c04afc0328060786.gif

Good to see the ECM back up the GFS with the second phase warming

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