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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    10 hours ago, Yarmy said:

    One other ingredient to throw into the stew is the disappearance (for the time being, at least) of the infamous North Atlantic "cold blob":

    ssta.daily.current.png?v=06Sep20

    The 90-day animation can be found here:

    90-Day SST Anomaly Animation

     

    Yes we have a notably very warm atlantic throughout combined with warm tropic area, if we see a fair bit of tropical storm activity over next few weeks, can only see the atlantic staying very warm, shooting warm air into the Poles.. Would be interesting to note the last time we had such a warm atlantic throughout at this point in the year. Would expect the warmer atlantic to result in a weaker zonal flow.. but we have a long way to go, and SSTs around Greenland can very quickly cool over the next few weeks creating a major temp gradient fuelling the jet. More interesting perhaps though is the exceptional warmth eastern UA/Canadian border and Labrador region this could well result in a large downstream ridge over mid atlantic which would be very La Nina esque, leaving UK exposed to colder north/north west trough dominated pattern.

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    Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

    so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

    For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Yes we have a notably very warm atlantic throughout combined with warm tropic area, if we see a fair bit of tropical storm activity over next few weeks, can only see the atlantic staying very warm, shooting warm air into the Poles.. Would be interesting to note the last time we had such a warm atlantic throughout at this point in the year. Would expect the warmer atlantic to result in a weaker zonal flow.. but we have a long way to go, and SSTs around Greenland can very quickly cool over the next few weeks creating a major temp gradient fuelling the jet. More interesting perhaps though is the exceptional warmth eastern UA/Canadian border and Labrador region this could well result in a large downstream ridge over mid atlantic which would be very La Nina esque, leaving UK exposed to colder north/north west trough dominated pattern.

    N Atlantic ridging is a theme coming through quite strongly, for early winter at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.daa78d0526c2b90d794e4504867b802b.png

    We will take that CFS member in January please! Down below -20m/s, lovely.

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham

    Hopefully la nina will cool down the northern Pacific off Canada/Alaska in the next few weeks....

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    28 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

    Hopefully la nina will cool down the northern Pacific off Canada/Alaska in the next few weeks....

    There’s a -PDO ring more or less which will strengthen in November-March (usually). The Victoria mode still looks quite positive (probably some kind of decadal pattern) but as we saw last winter it should relax a bit.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    There’s a -PDO ring more or less which will strengthen in November-March (usually). The Victoria mode still looks quite positive (probably some kind of decadal pattern) but as we saw last winter it should relax a bit.

    I would like to see the back of what seem to be permanent heights in recent years over that part of the world. Very frustrating year after year!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ikast
  • Location: Ikast

     

    Hvis der er et år, der i øjeblikket minder meget om 2020, er det 2012. Havisen er tæt på minimum 2012. Læg mærke til det usædvanligt varme Barentshav og havet jeg det nordlige Atlanterhav vest for Grønland til Newfoundland sammenlignet med september 2012. Det kolde område, der var i Atlanterhavet i tidligere år, er helt væk. Så havet er varmt i hele området. Sidste gang dette skete var i 2012. Samtidig har vi et mindre og koldere område nord for Island. Derudover er PUD gået negativt med koldere farvande ud for USAs vestkyst, omend i mindre grad ultimo 2012 hidtil. Dette sammen med udviklingen af en moderat La Niña i det sene efterår / vinter, hvor vi havde en neutral ENSO i 2012 efter en La Niña. 2012 er sandsynligvis meget lig 2020 ved SSTog havniveau. Spændende om det så fører til højtryksblokeringer denne vinter mere dominerende over Nordeuropa med en svækket solcelle på grund af den lave have ved Barentshavet, hvilken øre sandsynligheden for en SSW / split?

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    Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex
    11 minutes ago, frederiksen90 said:

     

    Hvis der er et år, der i øjeblikket minder meget om 2020, er det 2012. Havisen er tæt på minimum 2012....

     

    Translation:

    If there is one year that is currently very similar to 2020, it is 2012.Sea ice is close to a minimum of 2012.Notice the unusually warm Barents Sea and sea I the north Atlantic west of Greenland to Newfoundland compared to September 2012.The cold area that was in the Atlantic ocean in previous years is completely gone.So the sea is warm throughout the area. The last time this happened was in 2012.At the same time, we have a smaller and colder area north of Iceland.In addition, PUD has gone negative with colder waters off the west coast of the United States, albeit to a lesser extent at the end of 2012 so far.This along with the development of a moderate La Niña in late autumn/winter where we had a neutral ENSO in 2012 after a La Niña.2012 is probably very similar to 2020 at SST sea level. Intriguing if this then leads to high pressure blockages this winter more dominant over northern Europe with a weakened solar cell due to the low seas of the Barents Sea, what ear the probability of an SSW / split?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    I just hope we don’t get people repeatedly posting T+384 “toasty” charts all the way through winter this year 😣

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

     

    Deletion (wrong thread)

    Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    On 10/09/2020 at 21:42, Wynter said:

     

    Translation:

    If there is one year that is currently very similar to 2020, it is 2012.Sea ice is close to a minimum of 2012.Notice the unusually warm Barents Sea and sea I the north Atlantic west of Greenland to Newfoundland compared to September 2012.The cold area that was in the Atlantic ocean in previous years is completely gone.So the sea is warm throughout the area. The last time this happened was in 2012.At the same time, we have a smaller and colder area north of Iceland.In addition, PUD has gone negative with colder waters off the west coast of the United States, albeit to a lesser extent at the end of 2012 so far.This along with the development of a moderate La Niña in late autumn/winter where we had a neutral ENSO in 2012 after a La Niña.2012 is probably very similar to 2020 at SST sea level. Intriguing if this then leads to high pressure blockages this winter more dominant over northern Europe with a weakened solar cell due to the low seas of the Barents Sea, what ear the probability of an SSW / split?

    I'd take another 2012/13. Snow on the ground until early April here in Yorkshire. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Glosea5 remains on the path of a positive NAO-winter. Since 2014 all of our winters had this setting.

    Unfortunalty we don't have access to the seperate months. Or do we?

    2cat_20200901_z500_months46_global_deter_public.png

    That looks utterly awful !

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    That looks utterly awful !

    It looks like the mean average pressure pattern for the northern hemisphere winter.. text book.  

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    It looks like the mean average pressure pattern for the northern hemisphere winter.. text book.  

    A 3 month mean of course does not tell the whole tale but at face value that shows a Euro high in the house..

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Location: West Midlands

    That huge high over the north Pacific looks as persistent as ever.  I was wondering (apologies if this is the wrong forum) if that high in the N Pacific has had anything to do with the recent wildfires over the western United States.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    The October & in particular the November updates are key for the possible defining trends of Winter...

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    22 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

    I'd take another 2012/13. Snow on the ground until early April here in Yorkshire. 

    Aye same here, 01.04.13. 0 deg C at valley level 13:00hrs

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

    The October & in particular the November updates are key for the possible defining trends of Winter...

    Agreed, can see large flips between the September and October updates...and often do.

    I think the forecast moderate Nina is behind these forecasts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

    Agreed, can see large flips between the September and October updates...and often do.

    I think the forecast moderate Nina is behind these forecasts.

    A moderate Nina is looking more likely now though?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    16 minutes ago, Don said:

    A moderate Nina is looking more likely now though?

    Far from convinced at present. We've had so many non starters over the past few years. As we've got closer, we've seen the event watered down closer to neutral. 

    I'd be hesitant to expect anything other than weak at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    Far from convinced at present. We've had so many non starters over the past few years. As we've got closer, we've seen the event watered down closer to neutral. 

    I'd be hesitant to expect anything other than weak at the moment.

    Looking currently it's negative and at best will be neutral it seems

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