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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM seasonal looks bad....almost a repeat of last year. Massive Pacific high, low heights over Iceland and Greenland and a zonal flow.

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    Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

    so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

    For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    9 hours ago, Catacol said:

    The sought after sweet spot I think from a statistical point is weak/moderate Niña and eQBO. There was a good chance of this developing....and then (as per the Masiello “lol”) we have had one half of that combination torn away. Call it bad luck... more likely call it climate change impacts. 
     

    Years of watching for cold winters has taught us all that we get mild and unremarkable about 4 winters out of 5, and that in the ones where cold develops it is usually only a shortish spell. I have reluctantly had to alter my own KPIs for success. Gone is the hope of a 63 or a 47 because I think these sorts of winters are now a part of history. Instead the short sharp cold shot is more realistic and we have seen these over the last 12 years. These will continue to happen, and perhaps climate change will make the freakish kind of Beast from the East vortex reversal more likely from time to time.
     

    For this reason smoothed average pressure anomaly charts over 1 or 3 months are about as much use as a chocolate teapot. We will still see snow from time to time when synoptics align to bring us cold air from north or east combined with a never ending supply of moisture from the west, but perhaps searching for a cold season across multiple weeks is now a hunt for fool’s gold. In that respect seeing the QBO once again pulled off course is unwelcome but not a deal breaker in the rather gloomy context of U.K. winters in a warming world. Just so long as it doesn’t end up being quite as bad as the winter we got after the last QBO disruption....

    I agree winter 17/18 which was a slightly colder than average winter we had a couple of cold shots, albeit the end Feb/early March shot was very cold. However, the cold winters of 08/09, 09/10, 10/11 and 12/13 all in the last 12 years you refer to, brought more than what I would call shortish spells. Winter 09/10 was consistently cold throughout with a 4 week very cold spell mid Dec to mid Jan, late Nov - late Dec 10 brought a 5-6 week very cold spell, winter 08/09 brought episodic cold spells lasting upwards of a week or two; first part of Dec, late Dec/early Jan and first half Feb, winter 12/13 brought a 2 week cold period in Jan and a generally cold Feb and very cold March.

    If we take 2013 as the starting point then yes since then only very brief short cold spells have occurred. I remember back to the 11 year cycle between 1997/98 and 2008/2009 period when only brief cold spells happened as well.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Thanks @Catacol for that post and a sensible level headed post at that

    just to note that i like it at this time of the year watching these graphs come out again as we head into winter 2020/2021😁

    pole10_nh.thumb.gif.b3fac8fec00691dc801d01a37560d755.gifpole30_nh.thumb.gif.b335f8676fb40511ae576cbf022c2696.gif

    http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

    let the rollercoaster begin.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM seasonal looks bad....almost a repeat of last year. Massive Pacific high, low heights over Iceland and Greenland and a zonal flow.

    Maybe true maybe not....pinch of salt at this point

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    11 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM seasonal looks bad....almost a repeat of last year. Massive Pacific high, low heights over Iceland and Greenland and a zonal flow.

    It would help if you post actual charts rather than making sweeping statements that add no value.

    Febuary is the only month that looks like that - where as December on the other hand..

    7CBB6323-1ED5-442C-A590-F6C7E539D8FC.thumb.jpeg.5abcb069237fa5587ed953a853c6c365.jpeg

    0BD09BB1-A1F1-4081-B052-957E65A9035B.thumb.jpeg.b175dbd4fb67b0bd647c1fb47c0591bf.jpeg

    7F775273-5556-4E31-860E-FA302FBC0BD9.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
    2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

    It would help if you post actual charts rather than making sweeping statements that add no value.

    Febuary is the only month that looks like that - where as December on the other hand..

    7CBB6323-1ED5-442C-A590-F6C7E539D8FC.thumb.jpeg.5abcb069237fa5587ed953a853c6c365.jpeg

    0BD09BB1-A1F1-4081-B052-957E65A9035B.thumb.jpeg.b175dbd4fb67b0bd647c1fb47c0591bf.jpeg

    7F775273-5556-4E31-860E-FA302FBC0BD9.jpeg

    December is notable in that there are no negative 500mb anomalies showing, only average and above average geopotential heights.  Normally with widespread positive anomalies I'd expect to see at least one decent negative anomaly being progged?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    54 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

    December is notable in that there are no negative 500mb anomalies showing, only average and above average geopotential heights.  Normally with widespread positive anomalies I'd expect to see at least one decent negative anomaly being progged?

    The seasonal models are very good with picking out the blocking but poor at the negative heights - maybe they get blended out.

    For example January you would expect to see a European trough.

    This happened a few years ago - seasonal models amazing with the warmth over the pole buy missed the negative heights & severe cold over central Europe...

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Matt Hugo tweeting Nov Dec look reasonable for coldies on EC seasonal.

    Front loaded for cold?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Matt Hugo tweeting Nov Dec look reasonable for coldies on EC seasonal.

    Front loaded for cold?

    Hopeful turns out to be at least Dec Jan. one month does not a winter make sadly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Matt Hugo tweeting Nov Dec look reasonable for coldies on EC seasonal.

    Front loaded for cold?

    I've always preferred to have the colder stuff when the days are shorter so the snow doesn't melt away in a strengthening sun.

    Here's hoping for something  decent this year and we do have some teleconnections on our side.

    Weak/moderate La Nina

    Low solar activity

    weak wqbo (possible eqbo)

    -ido

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    9 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

    I've always preferred to have the colder stuff when the days are shorter so the snow doesn't melt away in a strengthening sun.

    Here's hoping for something  decent this year and we do have some teleconnections on our side.

    Weak/moderate La Nina

    Low solar activity

    weak wqbo (possible eqbo)

    -ido

     

    Me too - hate getting cold stuff in March when the sun just melts it all away. At least in December it’s dark at 4pm and the sun is weak!

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Me too - hate getting cold stuff in March when the sun just melts it all away. At least in December it’s dark at 4pm and the sun is weak!

    The plot thickens 

     

     

    BC50B208-B045-4F20-8B3C-E050A8F3B300.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, Raythan said:

    The plot thickens 

     

     

    BC50B208-B045-4F20-8B3C-E050A8F3B300.jpeg

    Yes, interesting that isn’t it?  Last time we had one was 2010.  I’d take it for so many reasons, and how useful that could be in the current context, with coronavirus preferring temperatures of +4C.  A proper dose of -10 for a week or two early season, might actually be to the good from that perspective.  

    Wonder what GloSea5 will say, should be out in next few days....

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Front loaded winter is looking likely at this point...mainly because Nina winters tend to be that way. 2010 being the ultimate and most extreme example.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    Front loaded winter is looking likely at this point...mainly because Nina winters tend to be that way. 2010 being the ultimate and most extreme example.

    Agree. Nina equates to mid atlantic ridge in December often, and polar incursions. We could do with a frosty November first to lower ground temps and ideally do the same over the continent. Later winter would signal that ridge broadly shifting towards a Euro high.

    Impact of any vortex disruption always the wild card to all this. 218 shows that decending anomalies from a shattered vortex can override all other signals....though 2018 was one hell of an extreme. Wouldnt mind a few more of these over the coming years that's for sure...

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Agree. Nina equates to mid atlantic ridge in December often, and polar incursions. We could do with a frosty November first to lower ground temps and ideally do the same over the continent. Later winter would signal that ridge broadly shifting towards a Euro high.

    Impact of any vortex disruption always the wild card to all this. 218 shows that decending anomalies from a shattered vortex can override all other signals....though 2018 was one hell of an extreme. Wouldnt mind a few more of these over the coming years that's for sure...

    Wouldn't it be typical if we do get -NAO in December but from a pathway of East Conus high shifting to form a west based -NAO and trough just stuck over UK with inability to tap in to cold source and with that advection of massive high pressure to the central east Europe that then moves across Scandinavia to form a Sceuro high. A nightmare scenario for sure

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    Our first hints of what looks like a very early SSW

    u10serie.thumb.png.406f6a7c6608b9fdec35fc8ee30cf450.png

    I know its just 1 set of runs but a few have shown reversals of the zonal winds at 10 hpa in November and/or December already with generally weaker than average zonal winds at other times. The only problem is that all lines are ticking upwards into December and it would just be typical for the vortex to get itself organised just as December begins like the previous 2 seasons.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
    1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Our first hints of what looks like a very early SSW

    u10serie.thumb.png.406f6a7c6608b9fdec35fc8ee30cf450.png

    I know its just 1 set of runs but a few have shown reversals of the zonal winds at 10 hpa in November and/or December already with generally weaker than average zonal winds at other times. The only problem is that all lines are ticking upwards into December and it would just be typical for the vortex to get itself organised just as December begins like the previous 2 seasons.

    The CFS has a very strong negative zonal wind bias, and November SSW's are as rare as hens teeth. Honestly not worth looking at IMO 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    Front loaded winter is looking likely at this point...mainly because Nina winters tend to be that way. 2010 being the ultimate and most extreme example.

    I would take a front loaded back loaded, back to front winter at this stage lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Both 2016 and 2017 saw the vortex struggle through most of November and early December. It does not always mean gold nor that we won't see late winter weakening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    One other ingredient to throw into the stew is the disappearance (for the time being, at least) of the infamous North Atlantic "cold blob":

    ssta.daily.current.png?v=06Sep20

    The 90-day animation can be found here:

    90-Day SST Anomaly Animation

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    39 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Both 2016 and 2017 saw the vortex struggle through most of November and early December. It does not always mean gold nor that we won't see late winter weakening.

    Yeah winter 16/17 was a very odd one. The PV seemed to skyrocket in the second half of Feb and through March. We ended up with one of the mildest Marches as a result.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy winters
  • Location: Kent

    Hi Guy's. I know this is the wrong thread. Not sure which thread to post this in. So please move where appropriate.

    Is there any correlation between either a Cold (WEST USA Winter forecast) or Cold (EAST USA Winter forecast) and any effects on North West Europe.

    Reason the question. I noticed Weatherbell have forecasted a Cold western side of a America and a above average eastern side.

    Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    2 minutes ago, Due South said:

    Hi Guy's. I know this is the wrong thread. Not sure which thread to post this in. So please move where appropriate.

    Is there any correlation between either a Cold (WEST USA Winter forecast) or Cold (EAST USA Winter forecast) and any effects on North West Europe.

    Reason the question. I noticed Weatherbell have forecasted a Cold western side of a America and a above average eastern side.

    Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

    From what I've seen  a cold eastern side ususlly fires up the jet stream  causing  the uk  to be bombarded with zonal winds  or deep lows   

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 hours ago, weirpig said:

    From what I've seen  a cold eastern side ususlly fires up the jet stream  causing  the uk  to be bombarded with zonal winds  or deep lows   

    New England had a big freeze in December 2010 with a record low temperature I believe so it can cold in the NE states and here as well. 

    What matters more is whether the jet is flat or not.

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