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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

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Posted (edited)

Still a compact vortex at 10mb over the next ten days but some appreciable warming

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-3625600.thumb.png.8311e346b931b893a06db39ee84d5f08.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-4489600.thumb.png.0050eaeab07386990b739d8ebe5f8cbf.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-4489600.thumb.png.b2cff9b240218a4d9b47f56c20060b93.png

Meanwhile back to earth/ Still no agreement with the ext anomalies but are we slowly getting there?

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4835200.thumb.png.af2f8f277d4f127a8ac2741716caca02.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4835200.thumb.png.433d77522fb292a74beaf9e9b69d7fd8.png

Edited by knocker
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I do hope we see a benign end to this years PNJ?

After the Winter we've had I kinda expect a gentle demise with a warm northern spring following on?

Thern a hot summer with plenty of storms!!!

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Well, GFS 0z shows something different today:

image.thumb.jpg.c494360a93f691230cf138697fd2ea4a.jpg

And if you look at the 10hPa temperatures, the vortex looks like being completely dismembered on this one, T192 to end of run:

anim_fsv5.gif

Snowy Easter anyone?

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Vortex split on 06z.

 

NH_HGT_10mb_384.thumb.gif.e87c180d8c30185787dedbb4e95c064d.gif

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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Snowy Easter anyone?

Yes please!

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Afternoon all ?

Clearly "something" is going on - the 06Z GFS OP showed a very sick PV with a strong warming from the Canadian side through Greenland - quite unlike the usual warmings which emanate from Eurasia and push the PV back over to the Canadian side.

The PV retreats further west which might explain the increasing signal for heights over Scandinavia though the 06Z Control threatens full retrogression at the end of FI.

It looks as though we could see a lot of northern blocking through late March and into April - not unusual it has to be said

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A continuation of the major structural change of the vortex at 10mb from day 10 with this evening's gfs

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-4532800.thumb.png.df7201c5de77e1143f3e8ed91e75b1dd.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5051200.thumb.png.4c4cc0666d232aff71919beb78ac58d7.png

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Tonight's GFS 12Z OP in far FI:

gfsnh-10-378.png?12

Knocker has already posted the big change in the strat and the forecast for a rapid decrease in zonal winds by the end of the month albeit to still above average levels.

The Mean tells a different story at this time:

image.thumb.png.c8545d4fa2c3bb7a224793733a795153.png

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Posted (edited)

The vortex still tight over northern Canada with warming over Euro/Asia at day ten of the ecm

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-4576000.thumb.png.16b2e7d2c4ee66cb6a2716aa0183478b.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z50_anom-4576000.thumb.png.0de547c793f9642fa04f9cdb58fb9b33.png

Back in the Troposphere still no agreement between the ext anomalies with the ecm reluctant to withdraw the Atlantic trough as the tpv re-alignment takes place with NOAA more or less taking a middle position. So still a watching brief regardingthe detailed evolution but hoefully still presaging a more settled period

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4921600.thumb.png.71cc42be0a99edd718db1af6635ffc19.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4921600.thumb.png.ade5c52bdf6fe7e04f4217139f83ec8a.png814day_03.thumb.gif.06cb8aef548e96f262b82ded2d99ff9b.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted (edited)

A reasonable example of the vertical temp distribution on the midnight Ostrov Kotelnyj sounding. -81C at 50mb and -54C at 10mb

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-3712000.thumb.png.1c72682e855a8eab81f305c1a1634eb0.pngostrov.thumb.JPG.a54990ddae3f11d296cf29d6d5950966.JPG

Edited by knocker
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Posted (edited)

After what I said yesterday one has to laugh at this 

image.thumb.jpg.011b0b96a047763daa187b4ca5228ae8.jpg

I suspect it is just GFS going off on one, as the GEFS trend is for decreasing zonal winds

image.thumb.jpg.42432be3cadb0e1f339f5245aa71aa4b.jpg

I'm finding it interesting to watch how the stratosphere pans out this year, the possible snow interest has probably gone now in the south, but there are still things to learn from this quite extreme mild and wet winter.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Evening All ?

A stronger strat profile with colder 10 HPA values on the GFS 12Z OP tonight but a strong and prolonged warming throughout FI.

gfsnh-10-378.png?12

Not as pronounced as yesterday but  this warming cis in progress for a week and batters the PV back.

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by knocker
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On 08/03/2020 at 11:49, knocker said:

Unfortunate that every time he links that paper on the back of a couple of GFS runs into far long range, the forecast promptly evaporates as quickly as it appeared! There's a lesson there....

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3 hours ago, Interitus said:

Unfortunate that every time he links that paper on the back of a couple of GFS runs into far long range, the forecast promptly evaporates as quickly as it appeared! There's a lesson there....

Yes I had noticed that and there is indeed

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7 hours ago, Interitus said:

Unfortunate that every time he links that paper on the back of a couple of GFS runs into far long range, the forecast promptly evaporates as quickly as it appeared! There's a lesson there....

To dig him out out on a forum that he can't see? ?

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Some significant? warming at 10mb at t240 with the ecm; confined to Eurasia at 50mb

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-4792000.thumb.png.07d3882712c53d3a388082f09b8113e8.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t50_anom-4792000.thumb.png.286b4bb27610719aa2cbc05eb05c76fa.png

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Looks like the beginning of the end for our monster 

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55 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like the beginning of the end for our monster 

Could well be..

image.thumb.png.f3e4e471548a6b306869f32bcbbfee02.png

The fist neutral/weak vortex plots have appeared for the first time in months. If this trend continues, this late in the season it could be a fatal blow.
 

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Nearly afternoon all ?

image.thumb.png.60c3dd0daec892261b21cf98e269275c.png

Extraordinary weakening of the vortex as we approach month end but a long way off still.

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The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated ?

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5310400.thumb.png.0b5cf457aba2012eb85b5296072bb0c0.png

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