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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

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The PV has behaved in a similiar fashion to winter 13/14, except one month out, in winter 13/14 in remained robust and locked in sit right from the get go, and never really lessened its grip until late Feb, so won't be surprised to see March dominated by a similiar positioned PV, perhaps the jet tracking more southerly though, so a colder more unsettled pattern than Jan and Feb.

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

I don't understand your point here? Dr Butler is just stating that from available data, if there is no SSW/PV disruptions in a winter season, we are more likely to see a dynamic early final warming. She's not saying 2020 will have an early warming at all, it's just more likely from past data. As she is a world renowned expert in the strat area, I'd take note of her thoughts!

My understanding is that seasons without any PV disruptions tend to have much colder temperatures over the pole and a tighter/stronger polar jet locking everything in place....so when the balance tips and the warming starts to happen, the collapse is just that much stronger that it can't recover. The bigger they are, the harder they fall and all that.

It is because planetary waves are better able to propagate upwards in a 'properly' formed vortex with a typical structure and vertical wind profile than one that has previously weakened and recovers which may have layers of negative wind shear acting as a barrier to propagation.

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13 minutes ago, Interitus said:

It is because planetary waves are better able to propagate upwards in a 'properly' formed vortex with a typical structure and vertical wind profile than one that has previously weakened and recovers which may have layers of negative wind shear acting as a barrier to propagation.

Thanks @Interitus, that makes sense. I can understand the science behind that. Good explanation!

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Yesterday was a date record (unsurprising) but today also is which is more notable 

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And again .... 2020 is certainly going to be remembered in the SPV series ....

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And again .... 2020 is certainly going to be remembered in the SPV series ....

It is interesting that these date records are being recorded within the 2 standard deviation range on the Attard plots, just, here for today, for the 60 N plot

image.thumb.jpg.4d07d523935d59b05b54df45d888ac7c.jpg

I suspect smallish sample sizes might be to do with this.  The uncertainty bounds  may should be widened  a bit after this year, but not too much, it is only one year after all.

Edited by Mike Poole
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4 hours ago, knocker said:

 

I presume this also impacts on the trop, so no sign of anything quieter and more settled, just more below average temps and unsettled with a strong jet?

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10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

I presume this also impacts on the trop, so no sign of anything quieter and more settled, just more below average temps and unsettled with a strong jet?

Although there is not complete agreement the ext anomalies have backed away from the recent suggestion of the re-alignment of the tpv and the subsequent retraction of the North Atlantic trough. The latest weeklies update is still pushing this just outside of this range, So yes essentially it looks very much like more of the same, unsettled with temps varying around the average as you get the day to day variation with the phasing of the different airmasses with the frontal systems tending to track north east

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4489600.thumb.png.1649fcec348a25b18223cdb4f1564112.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4489600.thumb.png.cfaa59a92b3ef33f397b51f4c41c4e91.png814day_03.thumb.gif.4daff2ba9524493cf33c7d09539e1285.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4489600.thumb.png.e72dca9421fa2d219df95f9eacc94c41.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-4489600.thumb.png.36d5858375c762ac57ff87457f89734a.png

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Although there is not complete agreement the ext anomalies have backed away from the recent suggestion of the re-alignment of the tpv and the subsequent retraction of the North Atlantic trough. The latest weeklies update is still pushing this just outside of this range, So yes essentially it looks very much like more of the same, unsettled with temps varying around the average as you get the day to day variation with the phasing of the different airmasses with the frontal systems tending to track north east

Yes that is my 'reading' of the 500 mb anomaly charts k, they did give some hope of a change but now appear to be backing what we have had for what seems forever. Not a good outlook in terms of more rain I suspect. Where this falls is to be decided by the daily synoptic outputs.

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40 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Although there is not complete agreement the ext anomalies have backed away from the recent suggestion of the re-alignment of the tpv and the subsequent retraction of the North Atlantic trough. The latest weeklies update is still pushing this just outside of this range, So yes essentially it looks very much like more of the same, unsettled with temps varying around the average as you get the day to day variation with the phasing of the different airmasses with the frontal systems tending to track north east

Yes that is my 'reading' of the 500 mb anomaly charts k, they did give some hope of a change but now appear to be backing what we have had for what seems forever. Not a good outlook in terms of more rain I suspect. Where this falls is to be decided by the daily synoptic outputs.

It was only really the GFS that started to amplify things and settle us down, the ECM never really came on board....and looks like being right again. Another 2 weeks minimum of crud weather. Suppose we should be used to it now, we've had it on repeat for the last 3 months.

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28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It was only really the GFS that started to amplify things and settle us down, the ECM never really came on board....and looks like being right again. Another 2 weeks minimum of crud weather. Suppose we should be used to it now, we've had it on repeat for the last 3 months.

Not to the same extent as the GEFS agreed, but both The EPS and the weeklies were indicating more subtropical high iinfluence with a retraction of the Atlantic trough by next week.

anomaly.thumb.JPG.7377a0051349ae8a2b2f0f323ae938c2.JPG

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Cheers Knocker and John, think im getting the hang of this as when you post about the anomalies, they confirm what i have posted on our site... appreciate your help ?

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This morning's ecm 10 and 50mb height anomalies

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-4230400.thumb.png.eb7243133c53636ba0c56c5d0acf2fb7.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z50_anom-4230400.thumb.png.0e74fdaabd795496a0433e267d1a970b.png

And ideally the tpv needs to re-orientate to a similar configuration and there are signs of this which, hopefully this time will be maintained

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4662400.thumb.png.b06ae237c492ee8faf47d9821399760a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-4662400.thumb.png.6c6730222eec1b9a2f732814b74bfdc0.png

But also must be said that this time the GEFS is having none of it and nor was last night's NOAA

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several  more days ........

And several more to come .......

at least .......

 

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Morning all ?

Forgive me for being a little confused but as I look at the 10 HPA profile on the GFS into FI, I have the sense the Sun is starting to have an effect and the strat is warming.

gfsnh-10-300.png?6

That doesn't look like a PV in its prime and for the second OP run in a row GFS is starting to break the pattern with the PV splitting away into Siberia and allowing warmer upper level temperatures into Greenland and encouraging strong northern blocking on the back of a slowing Atlantic.

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Strong stratospheric polar vortex this late in the season means near-record breaking cold Arctic stratosphere. These conditions favor the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) and the chemical reactions that lead to rapid ozone loss

As illustrated by temperatures at 50hPa over the Arctic ( station Ostrov Kotelnyi for example)  a frigid -82.5°C,

ostrov.thumb.JPG.32913cacab81b716019cf28a041ba7ba.JPG

H/t Ryan Stauffer for the following

And nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) formation, a key PSC ingredient for ozone destruction, is forecast to remain at record-high values. We will continue to see this ozone destruction into late March

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, bluearmy said:

several  more days ........

And several more to come .......

at least .......

 

Must be good news for Arctic sea ice retention, although I suspect it won't stop it from being another big melt season?

Edited by Don
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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, knocker said:

Strong stratospheric polar vortex this late in the season means near-record breaking cold Arctic stratosphere. These conditions favor the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) and the chemical reactions that lead to rapid ozone loss

As illustrated by temperatures at 50hPa over the Arctic ( station Ostrov Kotelnyi for example)  a frigid -82.5°C,

ostrov.thumb.JPG.32913cacab81b716019cf28a041ba7ba.JPG

H/t Ryan Stauffer for the following

And nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) formation, a key PSC ingredient for ozone destruction, is forecast to remain at record-high values. We will continue to see this ozone destruction into late March

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t50_anom-3496000.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-3496000.thumb.png.95e949d8ad9c467edd6179343e4359a8.png

 

Edited by knocker
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When was the last time the PV was as near to a similiar state as now? 2014 possibly, don't recall any stratospheric warming that winter - just a slow decline of the PV..

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

When was the last time the PV was as near to a similiar state as now? 2014 possibly, don't recall any stratospheric warming that winter - just a slow decline of the PV..

 

I don't think 2014 is a very good analogy at all.  Here 2014 strat charts for same day and GFS at T216:

image.thumb.jpg.22a51ff0484a3d7f529d4b972a394d6f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0bda3b105bda809323a8cfadea9aab82.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c495b48489e4e9d3c1b495dda3c7cf26.jpg

2020 and the same two charts look like this, now and GF/ T216:

image.thumb.jpg.802414fb44a569f063a74b6fb094a161.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1f0d5f683cfdddce8961406d29474e0d.jpg

This looks to me quite different, although this year the way the vortex ends is still up for grabs, but at the moment looking benign, which I would regard as a positive for summer.

Edited by Mike Poole
Note, times don't quite match and I wanted to delete second chart but am on a bus and some things didn't work

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^^ from weatheriscool 

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 52.9 m/s

Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 50.7 m/s 1997

archivesnh-1997-3-7-0-0.png

gfsnh-2020030700-0-6.png

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Evening all ?

I'm sure I'm missing something but this looks like a split or splitting vortex to this observer:

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

Obviously only one run but it's the GFS 12Z OP so some credibility. 

Is there anything at all in the strat forecasts to suggest a split two weeks down the line?

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1 hour ago, stodge said:

Evening all ?

I'm sure I'm missing something but this looks like a split or splitting vortex to this observer:

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

Obviously only one run but it's the GFS 12Z OP so some credibility. 

Is there anything at all in the strat forecasts to suggest a split two weeks down the line?

 

Looking at the pressure chart for that time,not quite a split,but very stretched all the same.

 

NH_HGT_10mb_384.thumb.gif.70e996345edb13b5a0ecf17914878b8a.gif

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The GFS 00z gets to this at 360hrs. Let’s see if the theme continues on subsequent runs.

 

6592117C-68CF-4C3D-BA7C-48E51C43855C.png

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