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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

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42 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What’s the chances of these charts verifying ?

4, 12, 16, 22, 35, 41

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SSW seen for late Jan

 

image.thumb.png.4b662ecdf77eb4b1d06ed098a4616b8f.pngimage.thumb.png.96fb8d5eb9628e0e91352dedbe7d5d9d.pngimage.thumb.png.34bfe4fb627e9ffc94d5511d50f5bf3c.png

Edited by Dennis

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2 hours ago, Dennis said:

SSW seen for late Jan

 

image.thumb.png.4b662ecdf77eb4b1d06ed098a4616b8f.pngimage.thumb.png.96fb8d5eb9628e0e91352dedbe7d5d9d.pngimage.thumb.png.34bfe4fb627e9ffc94d5511d50f5bf3c.png

I haven’t been religiously studying the latter stages of the gfs high up but the 00z run is reversing down to around 3 hpa by early feb .... trend or outlier?  Given the glosea run from the other day perhaps trend ???  
 

F4579E28-D6BB-403D-8B13-88556F8AC177.thumb.jpeg.93707a9e62d6bac88200927709acc00b.jpeg

Edited by bluearmy

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33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I haven’t been religiously studying the latter stages of the gfs high up but the 00z run is reversing down to around 3 hpa by early feb .... trend or outlier?  Given the glosea run from the other day perhaps trend ???  
 

F4579E28-D6BB-403D-8B13-88556F8AC177.thumb.jpeg.93707a9e62d6bac88200927709acc00b.jpeg

to me it seems a first sign to a trend now ---- it shows more and more a warming into the strato last days image.thumb.png.60a893e9a24b2ed0da8c50db1c7f09b1.png

Edited by Dennis

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Definitely reversed at the top

looked like it wasn’t quite below 2hpa 

1D45A1A9-43BE-428A-98B2-3CCBEF021D76.thumb.jpeg.197ee5b3212d59e534341b9df4f18daa.jpeg

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we waited to see like this : a strato-warming

 

image.thumb.png.3724166e0d812176003953a85cbb7043.pngimage.thumb.png.63d7eb2790aff152e5005291938d32df.pngimage.thumb.png.e36beaf0822ac41b5abf7af6ba14b79d.png

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6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Definitely reversed at the top

looked like it wasn’t quite below 2hpa 

1D45A1A9-43BE-428A-98B2-3CCBEF021D76.thumb.jpeg.197ee5b3212d59e534341b9df4f18daa.jpeg

Good estimates, -10.6 min at 1mb, 0.6 at 2mb.

Compared to 21.9 ms and 27.3 on the 06z mind you.

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So..."...could hold off until the latter half of February..", suggestion would be to change the word could to will, certainly confirming this winter is still flatlined from a cold perspective. Mind you, as has often been said around, whilst folks don't like the MetO for their straight talking, they have this winter completely nailed...

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Looks to be a double warming event.

 

Here at T240 then T384. In between the warming seems to dissipate then build again. Obviously all outside the reliable timeframe, and doesn’t look like it really gets into the pole.

D3C8559F-A806-41B1-9CAE-68BB831CFA51.png

C0E5ACAC-C441-42C0-9BA3-DFE2F8F0DC06.png

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Hi gang ,just out of interest i have recently read an article about the 62 /63 winter ,i was a young lad of 11 when this historic winter started ,as you all know prior to Dec 26th  1962 ,the weather had been very mixed but there had been snow falls and cold temperatures .A trough moved south on the 26th and the rest is history . But i have only recently read that there was a SSW Towards the end of January which kept the winter going with high pressure throughout feb and in to march .my question is ,with your knowledge does any posters know of any written documents or any info as to what kickstarted the onset of this Winter around the Christmas period. Since this winter of 62 /63 science ofuper air ,stratosphere etc as become  very advanced , and we know that a  SSW is no guarantee of cold heaven here in the uk .wonder if the winter of 46 /47 was the result of an SSW IN LATE or mid January,  but there again the foundations were there at short periods before January 20th .I did have all these answers in my 400 and odd magazines etc of the Royal meteorological society, but since my late wife passed on 2 yrs ago i had a good clear out , finished with my fellowship of the R msc and now addicted to net weather ,free of course and some great posters .i can now twitch the curtains at night looking for snow when its about ,without being told off ,how i miss being told off .cheers gang  if you were all here i would cook up some sausages, get the BAPS OUT, plus brown sauce, keep up the good work ,very informative, and may winter bring us what we Crave for.  Cheers .

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@legritter 

On 18/09/2019 at 14:50, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Found these articles "Negative NAO and cold Eurasian winters: How exceptional was the winter of 1962/1963?" https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wea.34

"The 1962/1963 winter as observed at Belstead Hall (Suffolk) and through investigation of the synoptic charts"  https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.2040

"Tropical origin of the severe European winter of 1962/1963"  https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2346

 

Also another article if you type in google The Mid-Winter 1963 Stratospheric Warming and Circulation change

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12 minutes ago, legritter said:

Hi gang ,just out of interest i have recently read an article about the 62 /63 winter ,i was a young lad of 11 when this historic winter started ,as you all know prior to Dec 26th  1962 ,the weather had been very mixed but there had been snow falls and cold temperatures .A trough moved south on the 26th and the rest is history . But i have only recently read that there was a SSW Towards the end of January which kept the winter going with high pressure throughout feb and in to march .my question is ,with your knowledge does any posters know of any written documents or any info as to what kickstarted the onset of this Winter around the Christmas period. Since this winter of 62 /63 science ofuper air ,stratosphere etc as become  very advanced , and we know that a  SSW is no guarantee of cold heaven here in the uk .wonder if the winter of 46 /47 was the result of an SSW IN LATE or mid January,  but there again the foundations were there at short periods before January 20th .I did have all these answers in my 400 and odd magazines etc of the Royal meteorological society, but since my late wife passed on 2 yrs ago i had a good clear out , finished with my fellowship of the R msc and now addicted to net weather ,free of course and some great posters .i can now twitch the curtains at night looking for snow when its about ,without being told off ,how i miss being told off .cheers gang  if you were all here i would cook up some sausages, get the BAPS OUT, plus brown sauce, keep up the good work ,very informative, and may winter bring us what we Crave for.  Cheers .

Tropical origin of the severe European winter of 1962/1963

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2346

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Thanks a million Knocker  ,thats what i was looking for  i will have a good read later , thanks for all your info on the forums ,cheers .

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the vortex got a warming SSW - this is a phase1 of maybe a winter setup

 

image.thumb.png.d683739c4aa1a0ea64a9af462329167e.png

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this morning ideas to the strato - well it is something to watch and it maybe comes to a pattern change late Feb/Mar

to now a canadianwarming shows up - i think some nice ideas can show up soon 

 

image.thumb.png.f3b0f0a5627220cea6921adc0485b385.pngimage.thumb.png.7d0d79b9d8e0f84174b21f8a70394f96.pngimage.thumb.png.9585ed92ee9cd4a8372a423aef99de92.png

image.thumb.png.3d15be98a8a23d8018d96391390e9c4f.png

Edited by Dennis

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if you are unknown to the SSW terms then this is a nice read article: 

DISC.GSFC.NASA.GOV

{{datasetProvider.searchConstraints.keywords.join(' ') | uppercase}}, Unified User Interface at NASA, UUI, data, GES DISC, datasets

 

 

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6 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Perhaps this might imprint on a pattern change towards latter part of February, would not be surprised to see winter finally arrive when people's thoughts are turning to spring. Traditionally the PV weakens second half of Feb any way and northerly, easterly airstreams come to the surface.

 

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52 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Perhaps this might imprint on a pattern change towards latter part of February, would not be surprised to see winter finally arrive when people's thoughts are turning to spring. Traditionally the PV weakens second half of Feb any way and northerly, easterly airstreams come to the surface.

 

I do hope so.  Spring can wait after the winter we've endured so far!

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