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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

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16 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

As feb has already said above, yes. What struck me was that for a forecast that was 8 days out (15th Jan), it was fairly bullish about the rate of descent of the easterly zonal winds (blue). A descending eQBO is known for being prone to stalling and erratic progress, so caution often needed with these forecasts. A look at yesterday's ECM chart shows the easterlies are at or around the 30mb level, but the daily reading from the Singapore balloon for yesterday, 7th Jan, shows the zonal winds still just about westerly at 30mb. The Singapore readings themselves do fluctuate, which is why the official measure of the QBO by NASA uses the mean for the month, which was 1.66 (m/s -1) for December.

ECM 7th: 329524847_ECMZMZW07Jan.thumb.gif.ab2340dc74d7e8a20a678cf58e4d36e5.gif Singapore 7th Jan: 1900039946_QBOSingapore07Jan2020.thumb.jpg.ae2d4ffe62b8c9945d48763ed187d645.jpg

NASA figure for Dec 2019: 1956923114_QBONOAADec2019index.thumb.jpg.566367613bc58dcc06bc590705be37b6.jpg

Just to illustrate the point, here's the ECM chart from the 7th Dec with a forecast for 17th Dec. Clearly that forecast didn't verify.

1994776456_ECMZMZW07Decfor17Dec.thumb.gif.4ba2583b3ff537a62409c3f726e7fd2a.gif

 

Is this updated daily? Have you got a link for this please...

5163165B-F803-40DB-97DE-4B5DF532238F.thumb.png.cbec3fe7dbba1bfdaaae5738705be390.png

 

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6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Is this updated daily? Have you got a link for this please...

5163165B-F803-40DB-97DE-4B5DF532238F.thumb.png.cbec3fe7dbba1bfdaaae5738705be390.png

 

Sorry, I forgot to put the links in. Yes, it's updated "at least once a day" according to the NASA website.

Daily Singapore reading: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#intro
NASA Monthly Index: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data
Berlin ECMWF Strat Charts: https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

 

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2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

so thats a bad sign for us regarding cold?

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2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

so thats a bad sign for us regarding cold?

No IF we could manage to get a split and a section of the PV did indeed move into Siberia should we get the chance of an easterly it could be very potent, long way off this though and probably would be best if the other section of PV was more toward Alaska, think @Glacier Point mentioned a possibility of this a while back.

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2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

No IF we could manage to get a split and a section of the PV did indeed move into Siberia should we get the chance of an easterly it could be very potent, long way off this though and probably would be best if the other section of PV was more toward Alaska, think @Glacier Point mentioned a possibility of this a while back.

It would also depend on whether a) the Siberian lobe was stronger than the Canadian and whether b) the Canadian lobe set up far enough west to encourage ridging into Scandinavia.

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OK, a quick look at something interesting from the analogues. The 30 day 10mb wave 1 heights from the GEOS analysis and forecast to 17/1/20 shows two very similar years, 2006 and 2013 -

w1.thumb.png.a3d8773f2a9c26aeb6c1c4f3943c310b.png

Day 31 corresponds to 17/1/20, 11/1/13 and 25/1/06. all dates are preceded by a similar peak in wave 1. This year it is currently easing off with an increase in zonal wind in the near term, but in 2013 and 2006 this reduced wave 1 was for a very different reason as can be seen in the wind chart -

wind.thumb.png.cbd49577499f05ed42754e5f6ba1d10b.png

Both years had SSW on exactly the same dates from the corresponding wave 1 data, which would be 12/1 this year.

What could cause the difference, MJO perhaps?

The RMM plots show that 2006 and 2013 were almost identical -

RMM1.thumb.png.8dd311155833f5f2047eaea701233490.png

RMM2.thumb.png.41b96c0b754f5b89a23981a363dfc603.png

But get this, the amplitudes were generally low, only reaching 2 in both cases just 1 day before SSW (day 26)

amplitude.thumb.png.5bac580069a93358c5379e321f8e1ea8.png

And the phases 7-8-1 don't feature at all in the previous fortnight -

phase.thumb.png.1324784fe52814938b0fafd16fb44abd.png

Clearly the similarities would suggest that there is some relation between the MJO and SSW in these instances but it would appear that the SSW or cause of it was affecting the MJO rather than the other way round.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Can see where he's going with the MJO plot but the 500s?? They look nothing alike and in any case similarity should be of interest after a similar MJO i.e. at the end of the MJO forecast period, surely?

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4 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Can see where he's going with the MJO plot but the 500s?? They look nothing alike and in any case similarity should be of interest after a similar MJO i.e. at the end of the MJO forecast period, surely?

Yes I thought the same, just stumbled across it on Twitter and thought I would chuck it into the conversation and as you were saying earlier possibly some connection between MJO and SSW.

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Too much data for animation but ECM 12z was seemingly imminently heading for a split polar vortex soon after d10 very elongated. Mmm.spacer.png

653FB709-5356-41D0-8330-3026CD2FF73B.thumb.png.a3f9102dca12f23a338b9bf9bf64a235.pngspacer.png

Edited by Daniel*

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Not sure if anyone has any stats on strength of PV in say last 20 years winters, how it is measured not sure.. and corresponding ENSO state, QBO state. Just be interesting to see correlation between various factors and reasons why some winters see a rampant PV, and others note so. The other main player is state of Strat and when SSW have occurred.

A good indicator I guess is the AO measurement.

The cold winters of 08/09, 09/10, 10/11 and 12/13 all saw a generally weak PV, SSW's featured in three of these winters, not 09/10 I think - the state of El Nino was the overriding factor I feel.

ENSO and strat profile appear to be the main influencing factors.

Another omi-present feature of the past 5 winters, scuppering any sustained cold appears to the PDO, and propensity for an aluetian ridge thanks to warm SST's.. 

 

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8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Not sure if anyone has any stats on strength of PV in say last 20 years winters, how it is measured not sure.. and corresponding ENSO state, QBO state. Just be interesting to see correlation between various factors and reasons why some winters see a rampant PV, and others note so. The other main player is state of Strat and when SSW have occurred.

(SNIPPED)

Amy Butler et al published A sudden stratospheric warming compendium in 2017 and all the data is now held on a database by NOAA/ESRL. The table from this work will give you the date of every SSW from 1958 to 2013 including the ENSO and QBO phases existing at the time.

Table of SSW Events: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

You can also interrogate the data and pull off custom plots. Data available includes:

  • Zonal Wind and Temperature Anomaly
  • NAM Index
  • Momentum Flux
  • Heat Flux
  • MSLP anomaly
  • Surface Temp anomaly
  • Snow Anomaly
  • Ozone Anomaly

Custom Plots: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/

Amy's paper in which she presents the Compendium: https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf

 

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19 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Not sure if anyone has any stats on strength of PV in say last 20 years winters, how it is measured not sure.. and corresponding ENSO state, QBO state. Just be interesting to see correlation between various factors and reasons why some winters see a rampant PV, and others note so. The other main player is state of Strat and when SSW have occurred.

A good indicator I guess is the AO measurement.

The cold winters of 08/09, 09/10, 10/11 and 12/13 all saw a generally weak PV, SSW's featured in three of these winters, not 09/10 I think - the state of El Nino was the overriding factor I feel.

ENSO and strat profile appear to be the main influencing factors.

Another omi-present feature of the past 5 winters, scuppering any sustained cold appears to the PDO, and propensity for an aluetian ridge thanks to warm SST's.. 

 

in the infamous winter of 09/10 i noticed the north pacific had very cold sst.

since then the large body of warmer waters has been a constant for a number of years.

every winter sees this big blown up heights northeastern pacific.

which i believe helps the vortex 1 to hold its strength without to much interference unless a stratospheric warming event.

to it seems to keep the vortex in the north pole location.

so in these winter types although the ao is still able to go negative this alone is not enough.

during the winter of 09/10 largest player was there coupled deeply neg nao as well as the ao.

but since 09/10 we have not had a neg ao or nao that negative since.

i believe records where broken for the nao negativity.

so there for the vortex had a bad start to that winter and was heavily disrupted allowing a greenland high pressure cell that just kept going and going.

the vortex was on the ropes at the start and by december there was no chance for a come back.

the modoki el nino has also been a rare feature since then.

and just a question the amy butler charts posted above im sure 09/10 winter was el nino year with modoki but it says on there la nina.

please correct me if i'm wrong.

still very interesting.

However, additional signals may support the pattern flip, according to experts.

"There are also some other signs of potential change late in the month, such as a weakening of the area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/whats-happening-with-the-polar-vortex-this-year/655523

at the moment i don't think the removal of the atlantic high pressure is going to do us any favours.

its just not looking like our year but maybe feb or march even april.

at the moment things don't look great on the stratospheric front.

 

 

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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@MR EXTREMES 2009/10 definitely an El Nino Modoki year. Here's the NOAA index confirming El Nino:

514012163_ElNinoIndexNOAA.thumb.jpg.d1a7c1b8d57081ab8b02af3174f7f25d.jpg

Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-oceanic-niño-index

And this 2011 research paper confirms it was a Modoki event:

The impact of the 2009–10 El Niño Modoki on U.S. West Coast beaches

 

Edited by Blessed Weather

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First we've seen of this for a while, GFS 12z at T384 seems to be sniffing something:

image.thumb.jpg.5112b0144d2ea36ffcb53970af288e95.jpg

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show the way to our winter strato zonal winds 🙂 and a possible attack

image.thumb.png.886f7cb21179bdde3eb62da65a1b2652.png

 image.thumb.png.8c1c1d8f742ec3b4a4c22913670b0d2a.png

image.thumb.png.d3ff2301c0b30b448354e52aa6e8c3fa.png

 

Edited by Dennis

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We can’t be far from a record strong spv status around day 3 ......

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image.thumb.png.5afa8f6d935fc077f8c031d678d45cf1.png

Warming still there on the 00z, perhaps one to watch towards the end of the month. Zonal winds forecast to drop from record/near record strength above 60m/s down to near 20 m/s by the end of January.

image.thumb.png.ff7b5a4dcdc2be1aee4062fe181d1505.png

Some AO/NAO forecasts also dropping negative towards then too. Perhaps some interest.

Edited by mb018538

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14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.5afa8f6d935fc077f8c031d678d45cf1.png

Warming still there on the 00z, perhaps one to watch towards the end of the month. Zonal winds forecast to drop from record/near record strength above 60m/s down to near 20 m/s by the end of January.

image.thumb.png.ff7b5a4dcdc2be1aee4062fe181d1505.png

Some AO/NAO forecasts also dropping negative towards then too. Perhaps some interest.

that's some dramatic  decline  in the 60N zonals. .and with pressure annoms-open to offer..with projected MJO  7+8 probability. ..

we're in the best place we've  been....by far! ! @2date

 

 

to boot 👇

umedel60.png

wave230300_05.png

Edited by tight isobar

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7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

that's some dramatic  decline  in the 60N zonals. .and with pressure annoms-open to offer..with projected MJO  7+8 probability. ..

we're in the best place we've  been....by far! ! @2date

 

 

to boot 👇

umedel60.png

wave230300_05.png

What goes up....must come down as you say. We're certainly in the best position for some wintry weather that we've been all winter.

Doesn't mean we're going to see anything, but the elephant in the room (IOD) has been removed, and the PV is past its traditional natural peak strength through December and early January. Good things come to those who wait?

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Now there is something real up (i hope)

Maybe an ssw shows up and leads us to the winter

 

image.thumb.png.32123ec4a8913edc728abebf2d983242.pngimage.thumb.png.260c61cd55d3edb12e83c0ba81f16d52.png

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

We can’t be far from a record strong spv status around day 3 ......

Tomorrow about 67 ms, about the same as 1981 but less than 1989 for that day of the year.

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