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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

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Posted (edited)

I seem to be on a posting roll. 2 images. Hope springs eternal.  ‘nuff said. 🙂

image.thumb.png.ddb9bb5b2eb01fa3976da519e78cbd5c.png

image.thumb.png.cdabc99dfc3904d14232b30f273992e8.png

 

 

Edited by Catacol

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Posted (edited)

I like what I see to my untrained eye on ECM 12z the trend has been upping magnitude of that Canada/Greenland warming and pushing vortex towards Siberia better place for it! Something perhaps is stirring could we see a major disruption in second half of jan? 

B4C176A2-E5A9-431F-A934-80ACBC01A4C2.thumb.gif.e6e934af7c137fcaa647b5a2259a311b.gif

Edited by Daniel*

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Recent Radio Sonde reading from Iceland. Coldest reading for 40 years recorded at 17.2 mb level  of -96c.

C

2020010311.04018.bstuve10-1.png-nggid0512654-ngg0dyn-700x700x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.png

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19 hours ago, carinthian said:

Recent Radio Sonde reading from Iceland. Coldest reading for 40 years recorded at 17.2 mb level  of -96c.

C

2020010311.04018.bstuve10-1.png-nggid0512654-ngg0dyn-700x700x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.png

Hi Carinthian. This has interested me. Sorry for the limited knowledge, but what does this mean in real terms?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sir Saats a lot said:

Hi Carinthian. This has interested me. Sorry for the limited knowledge, but what does this mean in real terms?

It means that high up in the stratosphere (at 17 hpa), the temp over Iceland is at a forty year record. A v. cold strat is generally a bad thing for coldies 

Edited by bluearmy

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3 hours ago, Sir Saats a lot said:

Hi Carinthian. This has interested me. Sorry for the limited knowledge, but what does this mean in real terms?

Hello Sir Saats, basically the colder it gets at that altitude the stronger the Polar Vortex. Presently, the Vortex over Greenland and Iceland is very strong.Winds at the top can reach 600km/h and spiral down into the lower atmosphere. Weather is usually dynamic with a very strong PV in that location. Mild and stormy for Northern Britain and can be the reverse in North America where Arctic Air mass will move south.  Hope that explains a little.

C

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6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

It means that high up in the stratosphere (at 17 hpa), the temp over Iceland is at a forty year record. A v. cold strat is generally a bad thing for coldies 

Perhaps nuking the PV would break us out of this pattern?!  Obviously a bad idea in reality!

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Good morning and things may become spicy(10hPa)

GFS00 is teasing, but maybe not?

Wave-2 Heights in action, with maybe a new warming giving some push?

It's early and only one run......but maybe....maybe...the embryonic phase of an MSSW?

8s.png

8ss.png

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Yep, sPV gets increasingly stretched through the 00z op

From this ...

3C17764D-006E-467C-8688-79425AB6C80F.thumb.png.7645519ca129ff0cf893ba1b939dca79.png

... to this

C3801849-491D-4772-A26E-0DC95AF5F0C3.thumb.png.50dac9da2a31e61e1654d9918d0391e5.png

signs that the sPV reaching its peak of strength wrt to zonal winds around mid Jan before winds decline in strength according to GEFS, though I guess this is within climo norm of it weakening second half of winter

4BE92053-85C9-4755-AE7C-222DE52B7176.thumb.png.8cfc1b687fe9da153345486e2cb4bdb2.png

Remains to be seen if this will be just a minor warming or start of a major warming.

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14 hours ago, carinthian said:

Hello Sir Saats, basically the colder it gets at that altitude the stronger the Polar Vortex. Presently, the Vortex over Greenland and Iceland is very strong.Winds at the top can reach 600km/h and spiral down into the lower atmosphere. Weather is usually dynamic with a very strong PV in that location. Mild and stormy for Northern Britain and can be the reverse in North America where Arctic Air mass will move south.  Hope that explains a little.

C

That absolutely does thank you. Thank you Bluearmy also.

So basically, the greater the strength in the vortex the more cold is pulled up and locked up in the vortex. The weaker the vortex the cold air mass flows down more over the Northern Hemisphere depending on various different scenarios. I assume also that temperature variations in the vortex can then affect the speed of the vortex. Hence the reason an SSW is keenly looked for.

I live in Shetland and we are currently experiencing what you describe. 

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2 hours ago, Sir Saats a lot said:

That absolutely does thank you. Thank you Bluearmy also.

So basically, the greater the strength in the vortex the more cold is pulled up and locked up in the vortex. The weaker the vortex the cold air mass flows down more over the Northern Hemisphere depending on various different scenarios. I assume also that temperature variations in the vortex can then affect the speed of the vortex. Hence the reason an SSW is keenly looked for.

I live in Shetland and we are currently experiencing what you describe. 

Essentially that's right. When the colder air gets tightly locked over the polar regions with a strong vortex, it tends to condense and become colder.

SSW is so sought after after it tends to stretch/split/collapse the PV, which allows for blocked weather patterns to become prevalent & polar air to be sent down into the mid-latitudes. It should be said that you don't need an SSW for cold weather!

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Sir Saats a lot said:

That absolutely does thank you. Thank you Bluearmy also.

So basically, the greater the strength in the vortex the more cold is pulled up and locked up in the vortex. The weaker the vortex the cold air mass flows down more over the Northern Hemisphere depending on various different scenarios. I assume also that temperature variations in the vortex can then affect the speed of the vortex. Hence the reason an SSW is keenly looked for.

I live in Shetland and we are currently experiencing what you describe. 

I wouldn't think what you are experiencing in Shetland at the moment has much directly to do do with the middle or upper Stratosphere, You have the Troposphere vortex and associated intense upper trough very close to the west with surface fronts bringing some very windy and wet weather I would imagine

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-8398400.thumb.png.341ffb553c2000675c80392be05f4eda.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.186a235a872d642738c0868f17446510.gif

Edit

But is quite cold at 18hPa -85C with 130kt westerly

lerwick.thumb.JPG.7a2761d84837ac15bf25f47ad9a17d94.JPG

 

Edited by knocker

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3 hours ago, Sir Saats a lot said:

That absolutely does thank you. Thank you Bluearmy also.

So basically, the greater the strength in the vortex the more cold is pulled up and locked up in the vortex. The weaker the vortex the cold air mass flows down more over the Northern Hemisphere depending on various different scenarios. I assume also that temperature variations in the vortex can then affect the speed of the vortex. Hence the reason an SSW is keenly looked for.

I live in Shetland and we are currently experiencing what you describe. 

This essay may be of interest

https://jh.app.box.com/s/wckl93b8mti7ctm0dr9mfvnrmqedu36k

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You don’t see charts of this +U wind intensity very often. Thankfully.

22FDA938-B68C-409F-8FBF-D2A18BBC6BA6.thumb.gif.0e039c5c9dd96b4352980b312c6fdc7c.gif

Lets just hope it’s a case of “The stronger they are...”

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1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

You don’t see charts of this +U wind intensity very often. Thankfully.

22FDA938-B68C-409F-8FBF-D2A18BBC6BA6.thumb.gif.0e039c5c9dd96b4352980b312c6fdc7c.gif

Lets just hope it’s a case of “The stronger they are...”

Just out of curiosity.  Does this show the Easterly QBO at the equator?

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3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Just out of curiosity.  Does this show the Easterly QBO at the equator?

Yes, its just working its way down now, not sure of lag times on this though in terms of its effect.

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5 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Just out of curiosity.  Does this show the Easterly QBO at the equator?

As feb has already said above, yes. What struck me was that for a forecast that was 8 days out (15th Jan), it was fairly bullish about the rate of descent of the easterly zonal winds (blue). A descending eQBO is known for being prone to stalling and erratic progress, so caution often needed with these forecasts. A look at yesterday's ECM chart shows the easterlies are at or around the 30mb level, but the daily reading from the Singapore balloon for yesterday, 7th Jan, shows the zonal winds still just about westerly at 30mb. The Singapore readings themselves do fluctuate, which is why the official measure of the QBO by NASA uses the mean for the month, which was 1.66 (m/s -1) for December.

ECM 7th: 329524847_ECMZMZW07Jan.thumb.gif.ab2340dc74d7e8a20a678cf58e4d36e5.gif Singapore 7th Jan: 1900039946_QBOSingapore07Jan2020.thumb.jpg.ae2d4ffe62b8c9945d48763ed187d645.jpg

NASA figure for Dec 2019: 1956923114_QBONOAADec2019index.thumb.jpg.566367613bc58dcc06bc590705be37b6.jpg

Just to illustrate the point, here's the ECM chart from the 7th Dec with a forecast for 17th Dec. Clearly that forecast didn't verify.

1994776456_ECMZMZW07Decfor17Dec.thumb.gif.4ba2583b3ff537a62409c3f726e7fd2a.gif

 

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