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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
8 hours ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Nope that's definetly not how it works 

I've looked through all the known major warmings, many were preceded by a marked cold period (in my location, ie. The Netherlands) if the event was a displacement it was never followed by a marked cold period and in case of a split it was some of the times but not all of the time. Like we saw last year when a 3rd fragment ended up right over Greenland .

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On 20/12/2019 at 17:01, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Was going well, then he invoked the CFS.....here various members are simultaneously forecasting for February a SSW and record u1060 for the time of year.....well it's going to be somewhere between these, all bases covered!

u10serie19122200.thumb.png.65391273239ad53190a13e521efe5ae6.png

source: weatheriscool.com

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Was going well, then he invoked the CFS.....here various members are simultaneously forecasting for February a SSW and record u1060 for the time of year.....well it's going to be somewhere between these, all bases covered!

u10serie19122200.thumb.png.65391273239ad53190a13e521efe5ae6.png

source: weatheriscool.com

The CFS (Chocolate tea pot Forecasting System) 

only ever used when it backs up a point of view 

and then, as you say, more likely to reduce that POV status ........

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)

Finally the QBO is negative at around 30 hPa mark. Maybe all is not yet lost. It looks bad now, but it could well be the case, that the models arent taking the other factors into focus in prediction. Usually a strong Azores high means a "stronger" vertical wave activity. We will see if that will be the case, if not hope it will enough to move the vortex towards Sibiria in january.

Singapore_u.png

At the top of the stratosfere we can see the strong warming from all the sides, but that warming isnt yet strong enough in the lower parts, for examble down at 10 hPa. But slowly we can see that propagation down.

ecmwf2f240.thumb.gif.226e061fadae02f5d84ac03209911f59.gif

ecmwf10f240.thumb.gif.9c5ed7f540c277906a3851f4efd80d63.gif

Edited by Redbull165
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
19 minutes ago, Redbull165 said:

Finally the QBO is negative at around 30 hPa mark. Maybe all is not yet lost. It looks bad now, but it could well be the case, that the models arent taking the other factors into focus in prediction. Usually a strong Azores high means a "stronger" vertical wave activity. We will see if that will be the case, if not hope it will enough to move the vortex towards Sibiria in january.

Singapore_u.png

At the top of the stratosfere we can see the strong warming from all the sides, but that warming isnt yet strong enough in the lower parts, for examble down at 10 hPa. But slowly we can see that propagation down.

ecmwf2f240.thumb.gif.226e061fadae02f5d84ac03209911f59.gif

ecmwf10f240.thumb.gif.9c5ed7f540c277906a3851f4efd80d63.gif

Regarding the first chart, the easterly winds seem to be taking a very long time to propagate down. In December 2017, they were more advanced than they are now and that year we got the cold Feb/March. Based on this chart i wouldn't be optimistic for January and even February unless it picks up speed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, karyo said:

Regarding the first chart, the easterly winds seem to be taking a very long time to propagate down. In December 2017, they were more advanced than they are now and that year we got the cold Feb/March. Based on this chart i wouldn't be optimistic for January and even February unless it picks up speed. 

In December 2017 we were much further into the E-QBO phase, though.  I think it turned easterly in June or July that year?  Agree, it might be too late for this winter, unless like you say it ramps up speed.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
3 hours ago, karyo said:

Regarding the first chart, the easterly winds seem to be taking a very long time to propagate down. In December 2017, they were more advanced than they are now and that year we got the cold Feb/March. Based on this chart i wouldn't be optimistic for January and even February unless it picks up speed. 

Maybe the good think with QBO will be its easterly phase next winter,if its few months behind 2017/18,then it wont reverse to positive like last winter at 1hPa and we will also be coming of solar minimum

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
3 hours ago, jules216 said:

Maybe the good think with QBO will be its easterly phase next winter,if its few months behind 2017/18,then it wont reverse to positive like last winter at 1hPa and we will also be coming of solar minimum

Was thinking the same. Maybe a case of sacrificing this winter for next winter .Better qbo and in a better position regarding the solar minimum nex6 winter as this winter is a bit too soon.

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, sundog said:

Was thinking the same. Maybe a case of sacrificing this winter for next winter .Better qbo and in a better position regarding the solar minimum nex6 winter as this winter is a bit too soon.

Blimey that really would be something special - cannot see that happening - the next 6 winters all delivering, probably have to go back to the last proper ice age for that to happen!

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Blimey that really would be something special - cannot see that happening - the next 6 winters all delivering, probably have to go back to the last proper ice age for that to happen!

Well I'd definitely sacrifice this winter if the next 6 were cold lol

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
6 hours ago, jules216 said:

Maybe the good think with QBO will be its easterly phase next winter,if its few months behind 2017/18,then it wont reverse to positive like last winter at 1hPa and we will also be coming of solar minimum

If the usual approx 14 month cycle is maintained then peak eQBO would in in the sweet spot next year. Just past solar minimum too. Statistically it is easy to prove that not every eQBO winter is cold and not every solar minimum winter is cold but it is also the case that the memorable cold spells in the UK over the last 35 years or so have tended to feature eQBO context with a vague link to solar too. Since 1985 we have had 12 January/February/March months with a CET of 3 or below (Jan 85, Feb 85, Feb 86, Jan 87, Feb 91, Feb 96, Jan 97, Jan 09, Jan 10, Feb 10, Mar 13, Feb 18) and all were preceded by a December where an eQBO was in place apart from Feb 86 and Feb 91 when the winter was wQBO throughout. That’s 10 winters in the last 35 with a cold sub 3 winter month in the period beyond vortex peak and 8 match to eQBO in December. My eyes also see a vague solar connection here though I know others will disagree.

If we raise the bar a bit to mid/late winter months with a CET of between 3 and 3.5 then we add in Jan 86, Jan 91, Feb 94, Jan 01, Jan/Feb 13. From the info above we know already that Dec 85 and Dec 90 were wQBO but the other 3 winters had eQBO in December. That makes a grand total of 14 out of 18 cool to cold Jan/Feb/March CET months (defined as CET 3.5 or less) linked to an eQBO in December. Converting this into years we have had 13 winters in the last 35 with at least one cool/cold winter month and 11 had an eQBO December.

We can also analyse in reverse. How many mild Jan/Feb months have been preceded by a wQBO in December? I’ll take anything above 5.5 as mild....and we see Jan/Feb 89, Jan/Feb 90, Jan 93, Feb 95, Feb 98, Jan 99, Feb 00, Jan/Feb 02, Jan 05, Jan/Feb 07, Jan 08, Feb 11, Jan/Feb 14, Feb 19 - and of these 14 winters with a mild mid/late winter profile 10 featured a wQBO in the preceding December.

My take on this has always been that eQBO on its own is not a guarantee of anything (eg the deepest eQBO December on record was Dec 14 but the super Nino overrode everything...) but without an eQBO cold spells are few and far between. Equally not every mild winter month is preceded by a vortex pumped up in December by a wQBO - but the majority are.

This is a simple tool and I think it has value. Dec 2019....where are we? Right on the cusp. Another reason perhaps why things are so hard to call this year. Winter 2020/21 does indeed look better.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
2 hours ago, Catacol said:

If the usual approx 14 month cycle is maintained then peak eQBO would in in the sweet spot next year. Just past solar minimum too. Statistically it is easy to prove that not every eQBO winter is cold and not every solar minimum winter is cold but it is also the case that the memorable cold spells in the UK over the last 35 years or so have tended to feature eQBO context with a vague link to solar too. Since 1985 we have had 12 January/February/March months with a CET of 3 or below (Jan 85, Feb 85, Feb 86, Jan 87, Feb 91, Feb 96, Jan 97, Jan 09, Jan 10, Feb 10, Mar 13, Feb 18) and all were preceded by a December where an eQBO was in place apart from Feb 86 and Feb 91 when the winter was wQBO throughout. That’s 10 winters in the last 35 with a cold sub 3 winter month in the period beyond vortex peak and 8 match to eQBO in December. My eyes also see a vague solar connection here though I know others will disagree.

If we raise the bar a bit to mid/late winter months with a CET of between 3 and 3.5 then we add in Jan 86, Jan 91, Feb 94, Jan 01, Jan/Feb 13. From the info above we know already that Dec 85 and Dec 90 were wQBO but the other 3 winters had eQBO in December. That makes a grand total of 14 out of 18 cool to cold Jan/Feb/March CET months (defined as CET 3.5 or less) linked to an eQBO in December. Converting this into years we have had 13 winters in the last 35 with at least one cool/cold winter month and 11 had an eQBO December.

We can also analyse in reverse. How many mild Jan/Feb months have been preceded by a wQBO in December? I’ll take anything above 5.5 as mild....and we see Jan/Feb 89, Jan/Feb 90, Jan 93, Feb 95, Feb 98, Jan 99, Feb 00, Jan/Feb 02, Jan 05, Jan/Feb 07, Jan 08, Feb 11, Jan/Feb 14, Feb 19 - and of these 14 winters with a mild mid/late winter profile 10 featured a wQBO in the preceding December.

My take on this has always been that eQBO on its own is not a guarantee of anything (eg the deepest eQBO December on record was Dec 14 but the super Nino overrode everything...) but without an eQBO cold spells are few and far between. Equally not every mild winter month is preceded by a vortex pumped up in December by a wQBO - but the majority are.

This is a simple tool and I think it has value. Dec 2019....where are we? Right on the cusp. Another reason perhaps why things are so hard to call this year. Winter 2020/21 does indeed look better.

If you look at averages alone you miss possible cold spells followed by warm spells, it's better to look at the Hellmann cold number 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
11 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

If you look at averages alone you miss possible cold spells followed by warm spells, it's better to look at the Hellmann cold number 

Have you got a link? Never heard of this before....

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
35 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Have you got a link? Never heard of this before....

You shouldn't pay attention to Hellmann. It's a defintion by Gustav Hellmann, especially for Continental Europe. It is the sum of all negative daily temperaturs over 24 hours. So the first of January has an average temperature of -2c, the next day -3c. That combines to 5. And so on.

For England it doesn't make sense, because such days are even more rare than in the Netherhands.

There is a reason UKMO doesn't use Hellmann

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustav_Hellmann

Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
3 hours ago, Catacol said:

Have you got a link? Never heard of this before....

So strange, only a wiki article in dutch and german... Hellmann number for a certain period is the modulus of the sum of the below 0 degrees centigrade days. eg a week with average temperatures of  -10,-10,10,10,10,10,10 will have quite a remarkable hellmann number of 20 but a very unremarkable 7.1 degrees for an average 

 

NL.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

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