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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

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Just now, Don said:

Just going to have to ride it out and hope it doesn't lock in for the long term, but we've been here many times!

Indeed.

Without wanting to take the thread o/t lets look forward to the upcoming 4 or 5 day early Dec cold spell before worrying about FI...

 

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21 minutes ago, knocker said:

The warming at 50mb this morning

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t50_anom-5504000.thumb.png.5ae3f8bcb8c4aa28046ba52dd1d2f2a8.png

 

What did 10hps look like knocks?

yesterdays 12z ec op had a tech ssw just below 70N by day 10 with the spv displaced well to the Asian side 

the gefs this morning have reverted to a much slower zonal flow through week 2 

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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

What did 10hps look like knocks?

yesterdays 12z ec op had a tech ssw just below 70N by day 10 with the spv displaced well to the Asian side 

the gefs this morning have reverted to a much slower zonal flow through week 2 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.a81f3c94491aa75280d40291a622e06a.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.64bce401fd0200ce862de4322ebcc39b.png

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17 minutes ago, knocker said:

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.a81f3c94491aa75280d40291a622e06a.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.64bce401fd0200ce862de4322ebcc39b.png

The first chart there I think is a good reason why only looking at the 60N U-component mean can be a little misleading, as discussed above. The steepest gradient is - as far as I can tell - right on the 60 degree line of latitude. Looking at the GFS op for the same time:

gfsnh-17-240.png

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06z GEFS look good, pretty much all of them go for a Major warming event at 10hpa, the Op probaly the worst of the lot and a slight step back from the 00z.

Op/Mean/00z Op

1789223762_gfsnh-10-360op.thumb.png.b98df9de3621f819a27e753bf02db564.png1189443431_gensnh-21-7-360Mean.thumb.png.c717301980bcc7961c26b1a5b918dc20.png1358405794_gfsnh-10-36000z.thumb.png.d9ca42e02c33d4b5db922acb00e2daf4.png

onto the 12z we go, afterall the 06z GFS is only worthy of the Bin 😜🤭

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At 10 hPa, I see the lowest m/s this season. 

At 150 hPa, I see some support for an Atlantic Ridge. Do we get after the toppler another period of colder air from the North? 

ecmwf150f240.gif

ecmwf10f240.gif

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Although the GEFS have had some ups and downs I would still stick with them over the GFS which still appears to be more inconsistent (similar to last winter as I have mentioned) 

 

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The ellipses plot from stratobserve is of interest today, based on 0z runs:

image.thumb.jpg.0af17f14cc3ac19d24fa2c15d11b8665.jpg

That is T384, so 6 reversals there, and P17 and P20 are interesting as they hint at a split too.  

Interesting also the comment re FV3 from @Kirkcaldy Weather above, I have been suspicious of it in the strat for a while now.

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21 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Is a pv disruption likely by mid December then?

Increasing likelihood, I would say for a SSW about that time, watch this space!

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On 17/11/2019 at 16:56, Blessed Weather said:

Anyone not doing anything over the next 4 days? ECMWF will be live-streaming their workshop on “Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere” during 18th to 21st November 2019 and it's open to all with no registration or login required. There's some big names taking part including Amy Butler and Simon Lee.

"The topics will include understanding and diagnosing stratosphere-troposphere interactions, improved parametrizations and numerical schemes, the role of water vapour and ozone, observational evaluation and data assimilation."

@ghoneym has kindly posted the link through to the workshop presentations in the Teleconnections thread. Thanks Gary.

"A lot of presentations to get through but worth a watch, lots of learnings. Amy Butler's presentation is superb in session 1."

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14 hours ago, knocker said:

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.a81f3c94491aa75280d40291a622e06a.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.64bce401fd0200ce862de4322ebcc39b.png

I'm just going to have to get weatherbell. With the demise of freely available GSDM products the range of tools this season is down on last, and these charts are very good. We may reap the benefit of this strong wave 1 warming in helping maintain that Greenland High anomaly in the longer term. Or the vortex may ping back to the centre and intensify....but somehow I think this winter has a vortex story to tell. Great watching - thanks Knocker.

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2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

@ghoneym has kindly posted the link through to the workshop presentations in the Teleconnections thread. Thanks Gary.

"A lot of presentations to get through but worth a watch, lots of learnings. Amy Butler's presentation is superb in session 1."

Download them using clipgrab for a permanent record...

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Warming starting to appear now at 10hpa,Up she goes.

pole10_nh.thumb.gif.b58234f147a7847412c9d2de97436888.gif

wave 1 forecast.

jikei_uep_nh.thumb.gif.88ec72783cc33c82f980fad2eada4bc9.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Big issues becoming ever more apparent with the gfsv3 and it’s handling of the strat 

remember that this is the first winter we will have seen the model in action high up and it’s continual disagreement with the gefs is a worry - add the ec op to this ...........

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