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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The uncertainty about this at the moment is massive, here zonal winds from 0z set:

 

GFS op just doesn't want to know - been the story for days, is it because the FV3 is better at modelling the strat, or is it worse, time will tell.  The ellipses look fun at T384:

 

Very mixed bag but I quite like number 8!

Yes its a split, some decent displacements - 7,15 and 1 the best.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
13 minutes ago, knocker said:

Interesting temp anomaly at 10mb

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5374400.thumb.png.0551913f0cd9f936fa71d0727d19f3da.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t50_anom-5374400.thumb.png.4fbf10fd6e894b10e4af148825af4b3d.png

More great charts. Might have to investigate weatherbell costs...

Suggests to me that predictions of vortex strength and shape as we move through December will not be simple to extrapolate. Not that it is ever easy to predict how the vortex will develop through all levels, but a definite sense of intrigue is developing at the moment. I think quite a few are now in watch and wait mode...knowing that history suggests a significant December disruption is unlikely, but that some runs are showing signs of heat stress. 

A very interesting watch.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

I try to learn without bothering the experts but this one is puzzling me - the "warming" being shown at the 10 HPA level on the GFS/FV3 charts I understand but it seems within the belt of warmer stratospheric temperatures is an increase in wind speed. First, the wind speed chart:

image.thumb.png.14901d232e4522f308bc9fe0cb5b3715.png

The contrasting temperature chart:

image.thumb.png.805d126190f56335cbe05cdb9e5ceb94.png

It looks to me as though the warming strat relates in some way to a corresponding wind speed increase so as the block displaces it strengthens. Therefore a warming from the Eurasian side leads to the block re-forming on the Canadian side but with a stronger if smaller core.

This temperature chart is from the Control at the same time and is, I think, much more interesting:

image.thumb.png.7740bbaa1c307344cb7118def23bcadd.png 

Not suggesting any of this will verify but the Control almost splits the warming and leaves the PV much weaker than the OP run.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
8 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Looks like the vortex will even come to visit us too next week around the 3nd of December  before going to southern and Eastern Europe 

 

https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs continue to lose their consistency for a drop below 15 m/s

 

Yes, no SSW anytime before xmas i would suggest now, vortex back over the pole and probably a zonal December will ensue after the early cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, no SSW anytime before xmas i would suggest now, vortex back over the pole and probably a zonal December will ensue after the early cold spell.

You do know we can still get cold Winters without a SSW. Don't you?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You do know we can still get cold Winters without a SSW. Don't you?

Yes of course, but not once the inevitable coupling of strong Westerlies all the way down the atmosphere happens in December and then you get to Jan.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes of course, but not once the inevitable coupling of strong Westerlies all the way down the atmosphere happens in December and then you get to Jan.

Why is it inevitable this Winter? 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

You do know we can still get cold Winters without a SSW. Don't you?

To be honest I think, while this probably used to be true, for the UK, it is becoming more difficult to get a cold winter without a SSW, even then the delivery rate is 70% at best. 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
5 hours ago, Interitus said:

Vrooom

umedel6019112406.thumb.png.d606ad1684c51514a9277eca18d3891b.png

Hi,

Would you mind explaining what the graphs are showing?

 

Edited by D.V.R
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think, and someone might correct me here, that shows strat/trop coupling.

Thank you, but what does it mean or, what happens when the coupling takes place?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think, and someone might correct me here, that shows strat/trop coupling.

That’s at 10hpa all the way down to the trop and shows positive zonal anoms all the way down ...

whether that verifies is another matter but the trend is certainly in that general direction 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s at 10hpa all the way down to the trop and shows positive zonal anoms all the way down ...

whether that verifies is another matter but the trend is certainly in that general direction 

Is that what we want to see @bluearmy ? As in for us cold nuts . Cheers . 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s at 10hpa all the way down to the trop and shows positive zonal anoms all the way down ...

whether that verifies is another matter but the trend is certainly in that general direction 

Difficult to see how we are going to avoid a zonal onslaught by 2nd wee of Dec at the latest,as it stands.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

It does seem to vary though-latest run12z

umedel60.thumb.png.cb19b88634dab3eda993c957846c0ef1.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Difficult to see how we are going to avoid a zonal onslaught by 2nd wee of Dec at the latest,as it stands.

Just going to have to ride it out and hope it doesn't lock in for the long term, but we've been here many times!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Don said:

Just going to have to ride it out and hope it doesn't lock in for the long term, but we've been here many times!

Indeed.

Without wanting to take the thread o/t lets look forward to the upcoming 4 or 5 day early Dec cold spell before worrying about FI...

 

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