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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Yes, feet firmly on the floor for a while yet.

Edited by Don

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26 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, feet firmly on the floor for a while yet.

GFS 12z 10mb

Z_temp_10hpa_38419112112.thumb.png.42e7d3bc18e8df249beecce01970e03e.png

30mb

Z_temp_30hpa_38419112112.thumb.png.2ea99611f42443703c716be387a6be45.png

Full steam ahead!

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22 minutes ago, Interitus said:

GFS 12z 10mb

Z_temp_10hpa_38419112112.thumb.png.42e7d3bc18e8df249beecce01970e03e.png

30mb

Z_temp_30hpa_38419112112.thumb.png.2ea99611f42443703c716be387a6be45.png

Full steam ahead!

the trend today in the strat from gfs is a bloody long way from an ssw .....

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If your post has disappeared this evening it has been moved to the Autumn Chat thread here. Please keep this thread for discussions about what is happening in the stratosphere. Thank you.

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11 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They might have been in America though.

EDIT : who knows anyway, he might be referring to cold ENSO episodes or something else.

His audience is mostly American living in the Eastern part of the US. 

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25 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

< 15 m/s at day 10. Lowest value I've seen from EC.  

 

To be honest, i do not think that the initial displacement towards Siberia of the vortex was ever going to result in a technical SSW, Its the warming just coming into view now which was at one stage looking like it might do on the GFS runs, however do we even want another displacement right now given that we have a Northerly in the troposphere being shown on some model runs, could that stronger warming actually knock us out of a blocking pattern by displacing the vortex back over towards Canada, obviously anyone's guess whether it will actually imprint on the troposphere but i am just throwing it out there.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be honest, i do not think that the initial displacement towards Siberia of the vortex was ever going to result in a technical SSW, Its the warming just coming into view now which was at one stage looking like it might do on the GFS runs, however do we even want another displacement right now given that we have a Northerly in the troposphere being shown on some model runs, could that stronger warming actually knock us out of a blocking pattern by displacing the vortex back over towards Canada, obviously anyone's guess whether it will actually imprint on the troposphere but i am just throwing it out there.

The wave 1 forcing is over Canada so it wouldn’t knock it back over. If we lose the wave 1 forcing on that side of the globe then the vortex is surely free to head back? 

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2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The wave 1 forcing is over Canada so it wouldn’t knock it back over. If we lose the wave 1 forcing on that side of the globe then the vortex is surely free to head back? 

If this was to imprint??

image.thumb.png.c36dc6424ce2fb1ff711603c6c5752ae.png

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Interesting difference still in zonal winds between GFS and GEOS from today's 00z runs -

GFSvGEOS19112200.thumb.png.df916692bb988f4a98c3b883eb6033cd.png

However, at day 10 they look by eye to be pretty much on the same page -

GFS

1805787464_z10GFS_0p25deg_20191122_0000_240.thumb.png.2bb6858710dacdc959b2b9a337f77976.png

GEOS

1308684644_z10GEOS_0p25deg_20191122_0000_240.thumb.png.950af85c0b7859d908d8bb1ace4fdb47.png

The GEOS vortex is marginally more displaced with the GFS propped up with a touch of wave 2. The result is the polar night jet is shifted southwards slightly on the GEOS -

GFS

u10_GFS_0p25deg_20191122_0000_240.thumb.png.2cd8c2a0ebf80656ec29e1885af9aa13.png

GEOS

u10_GEOS_0p25deg_20191122_0000_240.thumb.png.7d7256b1510f003458bc63cbb3e92f59.png

And though the GFS is only marginally stronger - maximum windspeed of 88.6 ms vs 85.8 ms, the difference in windspeeds occurs almost smack bang on 60°N -

u10graph_GFS-GEOS_0p25deg_20191122_0000_240.thumb.png.3ddd356b37391b306cbd8a7c577c2be8.png

u10_GFS-GEOS_0p25deg_20191122_0000_240.thumb.png.9e9e8a96b904fa03ad186d3c1852feda.png

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18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If this was to imprint??

image.thumb.png.c36dc6424ce2fb1ff711603c6c5752ae.png

Though i think i might have been talking total nonsense before and i hope i was to be honest.

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Today's members, still backed off where we were a few dayys ago but a couple of runs toying with a very early SSW

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.6c4dcd16f6183481fde9baa854b7b227.png

 

Fast forward 3 weeks time from last winter (and I think this turned out fairly accurate from this point onwards, a couple of days earlier than it was from memory)...

ha-u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.7643da0953756307d29773d43a238c33.png

 

Wave 2 forcing coming into view?...

ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.thumb.gif.769aa467d857e2b79074caf89ed85d79.gif

Edited by s4lancia

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6 hours ago, Snowman. said:

The wave 1 forcing is over Canada so it wouldn’t knock it back over. If we lose the wave 1 forcing on that side of the globe then the vortex is surely free to head back? 

Yes. But it might recover to a central location tilted on its axis or still stretched. Displacement isnt that exciting...but a stretched or tilted vortex heading towards mid month would be a good start. 🙂

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1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

Today's members, still backed off where we were a few dayys ago but a couple of runs toying with a very early SSW

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.6c4dcd16f6183481fde9baa854b7b227.png

 

Fast forward 3 weeks time from last winter (and I think this turned out fairly accurate from this point onwards, a couple of days earlier than it was from memory)...

ha-u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.7643da0953756307d29773d43a238c33.png

 

Wave 2 forcing coming into view?...

ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.thumb.gif.769aa467d857e2b79074caf89ed85d79.gif

12 gefs revert back to aggressive slowdown to mean below 5m/s .......

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19 minutes ago, knocker said:

ecm 10 and 50mb

 

Thanks for posting those up, appreciated.

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4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

12 gefs revert back to aggressive slowdown to mean below 5m/s .......

Wouldn't surprise me to see an even lower mean on the 18z, perhaps even an SSW.

image.thumb.png.ad5ad602c9f1c5dd34fe4c598692e788.png

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Yes @feb1991blizzard most consistent run so far from the GEFS with the warming starting to push into Canada / Arctic by around 4th / 5th December onward. Mean - anim_uho4.thumb.gif.f80cd0232b37cc71c50e4c9146422c44.gif Will be fascinating to see how it all unfolds.

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12 hours ago, bluearmy said:

12 gefs revert back to aggressive slowdown to mean below 5m/s .......

And the 00z run down to 5 m/s ....... the pendulum hasn’t swung back convincingly but the ops are still playing with a pretty strong upper vortex (temporarily perhaps) whilst the ens are at the opposite end of the scale

i notice a little lump of increased zonal flow  in the ec lower strat around 60/75N entering week 2 which may reflect why the ec polar field is recentl stronger flow ...... question being what happens if this little lump doesn’t verify ......

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image.thumb.png.4e1138e5d2f7cd7302db3fa94da0ea60.png

A few GFS members fall off the cliff this morning and go full reversal. Interesting times.

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6 GEFS members going for a full reversal, some extremely so with the mean moving towards a technical SSW at the end of the run. Meanwhile the GFS goes in completely the opposite direction & produces an above average vortex

Wow.thumb.png.7e512d5f97d0f4d2b98e7d15fe439430.png

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11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

6 GEFS members going for a full reversal, some extremely so with the mean moving towards a technical SSW at the end of the run. Meanwhile the GFS goes in completely the opposite direction & produces an above average vortex

Wow.thumb.png.7e512d5f97d0f4d2b98e7d15fe439430.png

My bet is the gfs is right, EC shows a big jump in the 1 hPa winds and from what I have seen in previous years the lower levels of the vortex will soon follow 

 

fluxes.gif

Edited by ArHu3

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GFS really has backed away now.

image.thumb.png.a7def7107b6c514b14b8f5e15824b891.png

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS really has backed away now.

image.thumb.png.a7def7107b6c514b14b8f5e15824b891.png

Typical.  These models are not kind to us are they?!

Edited by Don

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Just now, Don said:

Typical.  These models are not kind to us are they?!

GEFS still offering some hope, ECM 12z didn't look too bad yesterday at 240 in terms of the 1mb and 10mb, comparable in terms of the temperature but the warming was only just starting so difficult if it would go on to produce the effect of a couple of GFS ops yesterday and some GEFS members.

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