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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


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Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

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33 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

 

I've just realised that he's the lead author on the wave breaking paper with Jason Furtado. 

Looks like he's also co-authoring a paper with Amy Butler. 

 

cropped-headshot-lee.jpg?w=240
SIMONLEEWX.COM

2019 Lee, S. H., and A. H. Butler: The 2018-19 Arctic stratospheric polar vortex. Weather, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3643, in press. Lee, S. H., P. D. Williams, and T. H. A. Frame, 2019: Increased shear in...

 

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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is this a cryptic message Blue? ?

Not at all nws .... just wondering whether these supa dupa ‘new things’ were infact done by someone on here quite a while ago ??.

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11 hours ago, jules216 said:

times when  Chio,GP and Recretos posted regularly,the 2012/13 start thread was pure gold

They have all moved on to bigger and better things as their talents deserve. But yes, learned a lot during those days and thanks again for their input.

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Signs of the spv stretching and potentially splitting to quite a high level from yesterday’s 12z ec op

The ramping up of the spv to be above 40 m/s at 10hpa currently ongoing is forecast to drop back below 30 and towards 20 m/s on the gefs. The ec would seem to be headed that way too. 

 

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32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Signs of the spv stretching and potentially splitting to quite a high level from yesterday’s 12z ec op

The ramping up of the spv to be above 40 m/s at 10hpa currently ongoing is forecast to drop back below 30 and towards 20 m/s on the gefs. The ec would seem to be headed that way too. 

 

That’s sounding good Nick . Hopefully we get a big split and then we’re definitely be in the game with a few raffle tickets . ?

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6 minutes ago, Recretos said:

Well, I did extensive research back then, and true 3D simulations of the polar vortex were nowhere to be found. There were images of a 3D polar vortex, but in a 2D (cartoonish) style, and specific to research papers individually. That was the very reason I decided to research this field (3D simulation), and essentially (by my knowledge at least) being among the first (if not the first) to create operational 3D simulations of the polar vortex in 3 (4) dimensions (time) from operational model forecast data and reanalysis data (ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA-2). That was already in 2013 I think, so Mr. Ventrice is almost 6 years late. ? 

you should have copyrighted the technique andrej! 
 

seriously, more evidence that this forum is years ahead of the mainstream !

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44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Signs of the spv stretching and potentially splitting to quite a high level from yesterday’s 12z ec op

The ramping up of the spv to be above 40 m/s at 10hpa currently ongoing is forecast to drop back below 30 and towards 20 m/s on the gefs. The ec would seem to be headed that way too. 

 

@Summer Sun posted this in the tweets thread.

 

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49 minutes ago, bluearmy said:


 

seriously, more evidence that this forum is years ahead of the mainstream !

So very true and that includes the Daily Express

Edited by knocker
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Well, any type of copyright would not be very scientific. ? Besides, the data is not mine, and also the software is not mine, so its not really possible to copyright just the method, even if I would want to.

On a side note, I just noticed that after the last upgrade of the GFS to the dynamical core FV3, the model levels in the output grids got an addition of the 0.4mb level. Not a lot of forecasting power in it, but t will be interesting to see where the "lid" of the warming is. The graphic I made shows the 16-day change in temperature, a zonal mean. The warming is obvious and anomalous, but the core itself is cooling seasonally. There you can see addition of the top level.

temperatureisobaricingfs.jpg

Edited by Recretos
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3 hours ago, Recretos said:

Well, I did extensive research back then, and true 3D simulations of the polar vortex were nowhere to be found. There were images of a 3D polar vortex, but in a 2D (cartoonish) style, and specific to research papers individually. That was the very reason I decided to research this field (3D simulation), and essentially (by my knowledge at least) being among the first (if not the first) to create operational 3D simulations of the polar vortex in 3 (4) dimensions (time) from operational model forecast data and reanalysis data (ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA-2). That was already in 2013 I think, so Mr. Ventrice is almost 6 years late. ? 

I'm not trying to take away from the great work you've done, but (admittedly, non-operational) 3D animations of the polar vortex have been made at least as far back as the early 90s. I know this because my PhD advisor, Dr. Gloria Manney made some of them: Figures 13-15 from the first (1994) paper below are associated with 3D animations of isosurfaces of the vortex edge and parcel trajectories that have been archived on ... VHS tape! This was back when 3D animations like these essentially required supercomputing resources (in this case, provided by the JPL supercomputing project!) Figure 5 of the second (2004) paper is also associated with an animation that is supposed to be archived online ... but unfortunately it points to a dead link (see text that says: "An animation of these isosurfaces for the entire simulation is given in the supplemental electronic material (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS3313.s1).")

 

JOURNALS.AMETSOC.ORG
JOURNALS.AMETSOC.ORG

 

Just realized these embedded links don't actually work, so: here's the first paper, and the second paper

 

 

Edited by zdlawrence
embedded links not working
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1 hour ago, Recretos said:

Well, any type of copyright would not be very scientific. ? Besides, the data is not mine, and also the software is not mine, so its not really possible to copyright just the method, even if I would want to.

On a side note, I just noticed that after the last upgrade of the GFS to the dynamical core FV3, the model levels in the output grids got an addition of the 0.4mb level. Not a lot of forecasting power in it, but t will be interesting to see where the "lid" of the warming is. The graphic I made shows the 16-day change in temperature, a zonal mean. The warming is obvious and anomalous, but the core itself is cooling seasonally. There you can see addition of the top level.

temperatureisobaricingfs.jpg

 

Also, it's worth noting that the FV3-GFS has a polar upper stratosphere cold bias that develops over the forecast period, so this type of temperature change at those levels will be there almost every day (barring significant disturbances).

Edited by zdlawrence
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Yes, I was aware of early 3D animations, which served as a great guideline. I was not aware of this specific paper (which has great looking 3D plots), but all I ever found, was in research papers. Which is why, as I said above, I consider to be one of the first (not necessarily THE first), that did it on an operational/forecast basis, rather than research-case study examples. ? 

 

Edited by Recretos
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Today in the strat, according to GFS 0z, has the split between strat and trop vortex again right through he run, here the NAM plot from stratobserve, blues in the trop strong and stubborn:

image.thumb.jpg.1e287ad7415b58c4248c36717bdfa7ba.jpg

And the decline in the reds in the upper part of this plot reflective of the weakening of the strat vortex anyway.  Here's the zonal wind plot:

image.thumb.jpg.f8814d931d6868a7787611386430465b.jpg

So given a few days ahead is the peak, if the disturbed trop situation persists it gets less encouragement from the strat to couple after that...this disconnect could easily run into December now in my opinion...

Edited by Mike Poole
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