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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Beginning to see forecasts  of the strat vortex showing a split of sorts up to 20 hpa through week 2

ecm not unsupportive ....

interssting .........

Wonder what Exeter are seeing Blue..

The extended has flipped somewhat to a colder outlook ...

Hoping for Chino and others to offer some insight ...

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Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

Posted Images

One or two members seeing a split/severely disrupted SPV in the extended

SPLIT.thumb.png.7459bca59f3832baa4b20ee4b625d000.png

Given how early in the season we are this is incredibly interesting! Models continuing to forecast a lack of downwelling from the SVP so it's possible this blocky pattern could continue for a good while, any Wave 2 led attacks in the form of the Scandi High/Aleutian low combination to weaken and disrupt the SVP before it (I suspect) eventually downwells will be good!

It would be really, really nice to know where GLOSEA sits..

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27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Wonder what Exeter are seeing Blue..

The extended has flipped somewhat to a colder outlook ...

Hoping for Chino and others to offer some insight ...

Seems contradictory in that it states a switch to W/SW winds yet also states temps will remain below average.

I would of thought those things were mutually exclusive?

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14 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Seems contradictory in that it states a switch to W/SW winds yet also states temps will remain below average.

I would of thought those things were mutually exclusive?

Indeed mucka,tbh after last year I think there's more chance of me getting headbutted by the pope than there vague forecasts coming to fruition.just imo mind

Edited by swfc
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Certainly the next 3/4 weeks will be an interesting watch wrt the development of the Strat vortex.

Normally by the end of November we see a big step up in the zonal wind speeds down through the levels but the latest gfs graph makes an interesting read,

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.4c573fca59919795f1bdda7a822eefc2.png

the rise to mid-month at 10 hPa level is forecast to trend down again later on.

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6 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

GFS op now ramping things up too anim_kbn8.thumb.gif.13c12a906c7942eb1385f4603141e538.gif lets see what the ensembles on this run show.

run to run differences which are to be expected but does appear that the GFS op has now picked up on the idea of the warming anim_zny8.thumb.gif.874ba2ab56b6c5675bdacf4bec7e546d.gif so now the key things will be how strong the warming becomes, date of warming and getting the majority of the ensembles showing it and getting within the nearer timeframes. All very interesting and I believe quite a rare occurrence for November. 

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It's probably just coincidence but the NH 500mb forecast has a striking similarity with the charts from Nov 2002 when the SH also had a very strong SSW. Would there be a means to have the SH event influence the NH. The JMA image is upside down in view

gfsnh-12-186.png?18     psnh_pen_hist_z500_200266.gif

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Some wave 2 looks likely to be followed by wave 1 ........   not big returns but probably enough to keep the intensifying spv under some control .......  signs of some warming at the top as week 2 progresses but too far away to know if that is the start of anything of any note 

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17 hours ago, lorenzo said:

Some stratospheric pornography now, courtesy of a rogue Ensemble member...

 

Holy cows - +24c getting right in to the heart of the vortex causing the start of a split SSW, that is insane, wish it was the op, or better still the ensemble mean at about D7!

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No sign of any increase in zonal winds at lower levels yet as would be expected moving through November.

umedel60.thumb.png.ae68169f394ea167a12c5173aafceb0b.png

(click on to enlarge).

If anything trending down of speeds from the top down as wave breaking continues.

 wave_serie10.thumb.png.ba0eafec1af8d6a32081745e372cde5a.pngu10serie.thumb.png.37fdd5952488aa5381ecba5d1b2307c3.png

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Edited by phil nw.
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