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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


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Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropic

so after many days the GFS & FNMOC & canadian finally now follow the Euro with 44 out 64 Members with a split at day 9- The ECM is day 8. We will call it - SSW & Split for 1st Ja

For all that watch the zonal winds. Let me urge you to look at the geopotential heights more. At least as far as weakening/strengthening trends go. Because as the polar vortex cries for help, you migh

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Crap - i have just realised its the Strat thread, so unless SSW's were involved in the cold spells, i had better stop talking about them - i heard off one of the moderating team not so long ago that you can quote a post but put it in another thread, is this still available and how please?

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Much of what we are talking about is probably biased a tad to the last decade which has seen minimal early season cold. Since 2010 November has been a dud bar 2016 (frost) and even December has only really produced in 2014 and 2017. 

The previous decade had much more early season cold/snow. Notably Dec 00, Dec 03, Nov and Dec 04 (granted the peak was Feb 05), Nov and Dec 05 were the start of a generally cool to cold long winter with occasional snow and a tonne of frost, Dec 08 and Dec 09. 

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Well having seen the GFS 0z run, and that massive -AO, I was quite looking forward to the NAM strat plot from stratobserve, it doesn't disappoint!

image.thumb.jpg.5e145a38eec47aae80e94e7cebdfd30d.jpg

I can't imagine what the 6z would have been like!   Interest increasing by the day...

Edited by Mike Poole
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22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well having seen the GFS 0z run, and that massive -AO, I was quite looking forward to the NAM strat plot from stratobserve, it doesn't disappoint!

image.thumb.jpg.5e145a38eec47aae80e94e7cebdfd30d.jpg

I can't imagine what the 6z would have been like!   Interest increasing by the day...

Obviously we have followed this along for the last 4 weeks ago - however even with the SSW in 18/19 winter the highest we got was around -3 on the downwelling...

What an amazing chart - lets hope its still there T96 which is the safe zone.

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On 31/10/2019 at 17:34, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

First few of the ensembles to show the yellow colours appearing, also others still showing possible elongating and stretching of the PV. As I said in my post in the mod thread a few days ago every little helps, lets see if it develops into anything substantial..

 gensnh-3-7-384.thumb.png.fb692ebbe2c0c5df8509596d8637abd8.png gensnh-16-7-384.thumb.png.4b63273402edee4fe3c3f523ae9e0de9.png

Most substantial GEFS member so far anim_uph9.thumb.gif.0dfae4841a6ebbf93f0a7ff512a3c339.gif others still stretching and elongating the PV, more members to start showing the warming over the next week or so? lets wait and see but it certainly has a feeling that something is brewing..

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17 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Well having seen the GFS 0z run, and that massive -AO, I was quite looking forward to the NAM strat plot from stratobserve, it doesn't disappoint!

image.thumb.jpg.5e145a38eec47aae80e94e7cebdfd30d.jpg

I can't imagine what the 6z would have been like!   Interest increasing by the day...

so would that mean cold (surface) conditions? (complete novice here)

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21 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

so would that mean cold (surface) conditions? (complete novice here)

Just illustrates the disconnect between the ramped up strat vortex and the reversed trop pattern ...... coldies need that disconnect to be maintained .....

of course the fi trop forecast is likely as unreliable as ever! 

Edited by bluearmy
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29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just illustrates the disconnect between the ramped up strat vortex and the reversed trop pattern ...... coldies need that disconnect to be maintained .....

of course the fi trop forecast is likely as unreliable as ever! 

Any news on Berlin (wave 2 action) this morning Blue ?

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21 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

1995 the all time uk temperature low nearly went.

Yep, Freezing fog for days in Yorkshire, I remember the rime being inches deep on branches, I think it was hitting around -15C overnight where I was in West Yorkshire, and a couple of days not above about -4C.

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On 03/11/2019 at 14:00, MattStoke said:

In my lifetime I can only remember December 2010 being cold. December is normally more like an extension of Autumn.

December 2009 was exceptionally cold during the second half, 2008 and 2007 were also very cold here for a period but were mainly dry, lots of hoar frost and freezing fog though. 1995 is another big one. A fair few of the years between 1995-2006 produced a white Christmas here and there was definitely one around 2001 where the temperature was -15'C here one night. All in all, while far from guaranteed, December can produce! 

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1 hour ago, NorthernRab said:

December 2009 was exceptionally cold during the second half, 2008 and 2007 were also very cold here for a period but were mainly dry, lots of hoar frost and freezing fog though. 1995 is another big one. A fair few of the years between 1995-2006 produced a white Christmas here and there was definitely one around 2001 where the temperature was -15'C here one night. All in all, while far from guaranteed, December can produce! 

Also both 2004 and 2005 had cold endings in Scotland at least with -15C in 2004 and -13C in 2005. Both also had snow  towards the end with 2004 being a white Christmas, at least on the ground.

Anyway back to the Strat please.

Edited by Norrance
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1 hour ago, NorthernRab said:

December 2009 was exceptionally cold during the second half, 2008 and 2007 were also very cold here for a period but were mainly dry, lots of hoar frost and freezing fog though. 1995 is another big one. A fair few of the years between 1995-2006 produced a white Christmas here and there was definitely one around 2001 where the temperature was -15'C here one night. All in all, while far from guaranteed, December can produce! 

I grew up in London and the only properly cold December I remember is 2010. South East winters generally suck.

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17 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Most substantial GEFS member so far anim_uph9.thumb.gif.0dfae4841a6ebbf93f0a7ff512a3c339.gif others still stretching and elongating the PV, more members to start showing the warming over the next week or so? lets wait and see but it certainly has a feeling that something is brewing..

GFS op now ramping things up too anim_kbn8.thumb.gif.13c12a906c7942eb1385f4603141e538.gif lets see what the ensembles on this run show.

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2 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

December 2009 was exceptionally cold during the second half, 2008 and 2007 were also very cold here for a period but were mainly dry, lots of hoar frost and freezing fog though. 1995 is another big one. A fair few of the years between 1995-2006 produced a white Christmas here and there was definitely one around 2001 where the temperature was -15'C here one night. All in all, while far from guaranteed, December can produce! 

Aye, at the risk of going down at tangent December 2009 delivered more snow to Cambridge than anything in January, November or December 2010. Peculiarities of local British weather...

Back to the strat, the latest GFS Op run gets to -20 above the pole - first significant warming. Let's see if it continues...

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Beginning to see forecasts  of the strat vortex showing a split of sorts up to 20 hpa through week 2

ecm not unsupportive ....

interssting .........

Wonder what Exeter are seeing Blue..

The extended has flipped somewhat to a colder outlook ...

Hoping for Chino and others to offer some insight ...

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