Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

[Don]

On 21/06/2020 at 12:52, joggs said:

We can still have a cracking winter with a W QBO. Eg,cold and snow.

Just less likely.

Absolutely.  However, it seems we require more and more to go our way these days to get a decent winter for cold.

[SqueakheartLW]

Wonder if the monster southern polar vortex is playing a part in disrupting the QBO further.

Seen just how big that vortex is this year. It stretches right up almost to the sub tropics in places. Also take a closer look at the most northern extent of this vortex and what it appears to be doing to the QBO

The polar vortex shouldn't be reaching right up to 20 S. It is disrupting the usual easterlies that are found in the 10 to 20 N and S regions. There's no easterlies to speak of in the 10 to 20 S region like there usually is and what makes this even more strange is how the most northern part of this monster vortex appears to be adding westerly momentum to the QBO in the Indonesia region and this is slowly accelerating the westerlies at 10hpa

Whatever happened during the northern hemisphere winter to begin the disruption appears to be continuing with what appears to be happening with the southern winter vortex

However there is some hope for EQBO to reform again when looking at the following chart

1 - It looks like that 40hpa easterly jet is on its way out as it has got weaker and is now descending finally. The peak easterlies have now dropped down to 50hpa and the westerly above it is now moving down to replace the easterly at 40hpa

2 - The good news here for the EQBO is that it appears to have just managed to hang on at around 20hpa and recently the area of weak easterlies looks to have expanded slightly. The westerlies below this area look to be descending away whilst the westerly region above it hasn't really expanded by much at all. Will this easterly get going in time for the winter or will it get going at all?

[Singularity]

WWW.ESSOAR.ORG

I'm planning to read this in more detail as soon as I can, but from the abstract it suggest that the rare S. Hemisphere SSW of Sep 2019 is responsible for the disruption to the easterly QBO descent. Whether the current unusually broad reach of the austral polar vortex is in any way related, I can only imagine.

[Singularity]

Have read in more detail now.

The proposal is that the SH SSW displaced the austral winter polar vortex toward S. America, where it caused unusual planetary and then synoptic-scale wave activity which imparted westerly momentum to the equatorial stratosphere, so disrupting the QBO cycle. Considering the lack of disruption to the boreal (N. Hem) winter polar vortex last winter, I can't see good reason to dispute this assessment.

This differs to the 2015-16 disruption, which was tropically driven, relating to the extreme El Nino event driving unusual wave behaviour.

Interestingly, the paper also discusses a link to climate change. Observations have shown a weakening of the QBO amplitude in the tropical lowermost stratosphere and there's similar weakening in many model projections.

It's uncertain due to the short observation set (28 full cycles since 1957) and large natural variability, but there's a possibility that this loss of amplitude makes the QBO more susceptible to cycle disruption.

If so, this will make QBO forecasting more of a challenge, requiring factoring in of extratropical processes to pick up on events such as the 2019-20 one, which did have some harbingers a few months in advance of the anomalous westerly layer emerging.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Seems the CFS is, even at this far out range, going for a SSW come December.

It's churning out absolutely bonkers charts at the moment.

Here's the December mean chart- tell tale sign of SSW prediction is the oranges all across the Arctic locale

Secondly, here is one of the most bonkers charts I've seen from an individual run of the model

Black hole cold anomaly

Accompanying pressure anomaly-

Obviously it means little at this range but I do personally believe we've got a very 'interesting' winter coming up.

 

Edited June 24, 2020 by CreweCold

[mb018538]

10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Seems the CFS is, even at this far out range, going for a SSW come December.

It's churning out absolutely bonkers charts at the moment.

Here's the December mean chart- tell tale sign of SSW prediction is the oranges all across the Arctic locale

Secondly, here is one of the most bonkers charts I've seen from an individual run of the model

Black hole cold anomaly

Accompanying pressure anomaly-

Obviously it means little at this range but I do personally believe we've got a very 'interesting' winter coming up.

 

Interesting @CreweCold. Not much more to say at this range as it’s just wild speculation, but it’ll do well to be as bad as winter 2019/2020. Just look at that blue line, pretty much miles above average from  mid December until May. Truly awful.

[Don]

On 25/06/2020 at 00:24, CreweCold said:

Seems the CFS is, even at this far out range, going for a SSW come December.

It's churning out absolutely bonkers charts at the moment.

Here's the December mean chart- tell tale sign of SSW prediction is the oranges all across the Arctic locale

Obviously it means little at this range but I do personally believe we've got a very 'interesting' winter coming up.

 

My main concerns for the coming winter at this very early stage are the potential awol QBO and the warm SST's in the north east Pacific.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Don

[SqueakheartLW]

The strange QBO situation still continues as the NASA Singapore site shows once again today as they have yet again altered their QBO status from Westerly back to West Descending Phase once more as shown

However there may be a small sign that the EQBO is trying to reform when I took this snapshot of 10hpa winds today

Within that circled region a small zone of easterly winds has appeared and is the first easterlies at 10hpa for a while now. Will this area expand and end up equator wide, we shall see

This could be backed up by what can be seen on the above image. Although it looks like there has been a standard EQBO when you can clearly see the easterly winds within the two orange lines this image isn't high resolution enough to see what has really happened. Notice the westerlies are weakening again at 3hpa. This upper region looks like it will be going back easterly again soon but will they get below 10hpa

A more detailed version of the above is shown below

This is a daily version of the above and shows how quickly westerlies have taken over in the 30hpa to 3hpa region but although more detailed it is still not showing the full picture. The clear 3hpa weakening is also visible on this chart too

This chart focuses more on the 10 to 300 hpa region and shows up more of what is actually happening. The E shows that we have had an official easterly phase but not a normal one. This lower resolution chart clearly shows the four different regions of QBO we currently have and how confusing all this looks

The more detailed version is below with daily readings

1 - The new WQBO has clearly descended into the 10hpa region but it looks rather ragged and weak and sometimes bits and pieces of easterlies are visible within this region and in the last week or two has failed to descend any further and in fact looks to have pulled back upwards slightly too

2 - A region of weak easterlies has managed to hang on in the 15 to 20 hpa region despite everything that has happened in the last few months and if anything this region looks to be slowly expanding, especially downwards. It would appear this area has got slightly stronger recently too. Maybe as a result of the weakening easterlies further down

3 - The 30hpa westerlies have clung on with determination ever since the last WQBO "finished" as such and a couple of weeks ago looked to be getting their act together and started to strengthen again but in the last week they have persisted but look to have got a bit weaker again. Is this a good sign the EQBO is going to come roaring back once again. Could what has happened result in a failure of the next WQBO instead. This region of westerlies is clearly stealing some of the momentum needed for those higher up to strengthen and descend and if the 10hpa region does switch easterly again then we could end up seeing a reset to east descending phase rather than a failure and return to the west phase again

4 - The 40 to 100 hpa region has been dominated by easterlies for a while now and this region is the main reason for the strange situation we have right now. The good news for the EQBO is that this region appears to be descending and weakening now, allowing the westerlies above to now descend too. The bad news for the EQBO is as long as this region still persists then this increases the chance of an EQBO failure rather than a reset to east descending phase once more.

Finally we have the chart showing where we are at on the QBO phase

It is clear how we have taken a rather strange route across this chart after December 2019 although no where near as bad as 2016 which is the grey line that cuts across the chart on the opposite side between my two arrows. Now which way will things go after the June 2020 plot on this chart.

1 - The WQBO returns after our very weak almost failed EQBO and we generally follow the direction of the red arrow until we are back to full strength or near full strength WQBO again or we could see a weakened version and curve slightly more to the left of the red arrow but still get a WQBO again. This would be the worse outcome overall and would be a near repeat of 2016 again

2 - We see a failure of the next WQBO which although is unlikely cannot be ruled out based on the strange way the QBO is behaving at the moment and we end up cutting through the middle of the chart and see a reset to roughly where we was at in December 2019 with the QBO before it then continues round the chart where most normal EQBO's go. This is an outcome I would rather see and would make up for what happened in 2016 rather than seeing another repeat of the EQBO failure of that year.

[SqueakheartLW]

Another update on the QBO again as things appear to have been taking an interesting turn since my last update

First here is the daily QBO plot from NASA

Just ignore what it says about westerly phase as this has been all over the place really since the start of the year and changes every few days to something different. There are two main heights to focus on here which could be a sign of the EQBO trying to reform

1 - This region between 15 and 20 hpa has started to show more consistent easterlies on the most recent daily plots and stronger ones too at times. This is the region that just managed to hang onto a very weak EQBO throughout the whole strange period and it appears to have survived the disruption event lower down. All it needs to do now is expand and push the 30hpa westerlies down and away

2 - The 10hpa westerlies have continued to weaken recently and this region has bounced about between easterlies, neutral and westerlies. Today appears to be one of the neutral days. It seems the westerlies at 10hpa are running out of steam and looking at nullschool.net and 10hpa winds shows large areas above the equator with virtually no winds at all in many areas. This region is on a knife edge at the moment and could go either way

Here is the daily chart showing QBO for the last few months at least

Like in my last update there are still 4 regions of general QBO phase which in itself is so unusual. The most I've ever seen is 3 when the new QBO phase is appearing at 10hpa as the last of the old QBO phase is dissipating at 100hpa and the current phase is in between these areas

1 - The weak westerlies continue at 10hpa and like in the last update continue to be very ragged with easterlies mixed in with them making this region near neutral on average which has been showing in the alternating daily plots. Which phase is going to win out in the end as it is highly unlikely we will remain at neutral QBO for very long

2 - Weak easterlies have still clung on in the 15 to 20 hpa region and based on recent plots have gained in strength but it isn't very clear yet on this chart that they are any stronger yet. Maybe another week or so will help show up this trend on this particular chart but they don't appear to be descending much yet

3 - The big risk factor that could result in an EQBO failure lies at around 30hpa with the ever persistent westerlies that just refuse to go away. They are more organised now than they were earlier in the year but not especially strong either. This region descending is all really dependant on what happens in the final region below

4 - The easterly anomaly that formed early in the year has ended up turning into a deep layer of general easterlies which although weaker just keep on persisting and have clung on in determination to all areas from 40 to 100 hpa. The core of the easterlies has in general descended from 40 hpa down to between 50 and 70 hpa now but still won't give up.

The deeper stratospheric view is below

There are two main areas of interest on this particular chart

1 - The first area is at 3hpa and you may just be able to make it out in the top corner of the chart. Last time I updated the westerlies had weakened at 3hpa. This time you may be able to notice the very pale green colour that has started to appear at 3hpa. This is the return of easterlies to this height and this region should rapidly descend over the next few weeks and with luck could wipe out the westerlies at 10hpa in a few weeks time too.

2 - Although not visible here the other thing that confirms weakening of westerlies and strengthening of easterlies is the expanding weak area of average westerlies between 15 and 20 hpa. Maybe soon easterlies will show up on this chart in this region too.

The final set of charts I have't included before but after looking at them I thought I would include these too showing all levels of the atmosphere from 1000 hpa to 1 hpa and from 90S to 90N to show the hope that the EQBO could be on the way back again. After a bit of editing to get both the N hemisphere and S hemisphere charts together I came up with the following:

These are the snapshots of the average wind speeds at all levels between 1000 hpa and 1 hpa for all latitudes in the last 6 days. Reds, oranges and yellows are westerlies and blues are easterlies

1a - The first feature that clearly stands out is the polar vortex zonal winds in the S hemisphere as they completely dominate the southern side of the chart with monster winds going over 100 m/s in some places high up

1b - The tropical jet stream is also clearly visible in the southern hemisphere too and is a lot stronger than its northern counterpart

2a - Another region of note is the what I term the anti vortex spinning away north of the equator with some quite strong easterlies touching 50 m/s at times. No doubt this region will slow down as autumn and winter approach then reverse

2b and 2c - The tropical and polar jet streams are clearly visible on this chart and both are a lot weaker currently than the southern versions, no doubt due to the time of year

3a - However the main areas of interest on this chart are the re-emergence of the EQBO at 1hpa which as you go through the 6 days of charts is slowly descending down towards 3 hpa.

3b - The other main area of interest is 10 hpa. Focus on all the green circles and note what is starting to happen at 10 hpa. On 9th July we have near neutral winds at 10 hpa.

3c - By the time we get to 14th July notice what has started to appear at 10 hpa. Notice the pale blue region appearing at this level. This only means an average easterly is beginning to appear at 10 hpa. This could be the sign that the EQBO has managed to just hang on and could be on its way back after all.

[SqueakheartLW]

Update number 4 for my QBO analysis and recent trends once again

I shall start with the QBO phase plot like I usually do which is still showing the strange pattern but less of a strange one than it was at least

This is showing 3 main areas of QBO which it has to be said can happen sometimes but the only real strange part here is just how shallow the westerly region is on the latest plot. 30hpa has a raging westerly today touching 25 m/s which is very fast for a westerly. Maybe this is in compensation for the easterlies at all other levels. As before 10hpa westerlies appear to continue to weaken as easterlies are becoming more common at this height on these plot charts.

This could be backed up by these three snapshots of the equatorial regions of the Earth at 10 hpa from today

Atlantic Region with arrows showing general wind direction or an X where it is virtually still

Pacific Region with same arrows and X's as above

Indian Ocean Region with same arrows and X's

What you probably saw, especially with the Pacific and even more so the Indian Ocean regions was the area of easterly winds. That area of easterlies has been expanding recently and is slowly speeding up too. Is this a sign the EQBO is returning to 10hpa?

Now time for the usual focus on what has taken place within the different levels of the atmosphere, starting with 10 hpa to 100 hpa

As with the previous updates the strange situation with 4 general layers of QBO continues

1 - The 10 hpa region continues to look very ragged and appears to have shifted further towards a change to EQBO. This can be backed up by the developing easterlies above Indonesia and Singapore especially at 10 hpa

2 - Easterlies continue in the region between 15 hpa and 20 hpa but as can be seen with daily variations in strength and occasional westerly days appear at times

3 - 30 hpa continues to see a dominance of the westerly QBO and still it refuses to move from this area. Maybe the changes above will help to get this region descending down to the lower stratosphere

4 - Although 40 hpa seems to have now in general lost the easterly anomaly 50 hpa to 100 hpa continue to see general easterlies persisting although still weakening overall. This should eventually allow the westerlies at 30 hpa to finally descend.

Time for the deeper atmospheric view of the QBO and some interesting developments have taken place on this chart too

1 - The first big area of note is how much the easterly QBO has descended between 3 hpa and 7 hpa in just the last few days since my last update. The last update only showed a tiny pale green mark in the corner. Now there's a whole zone of weak easterlies at all of these levels. This is really getting a move on but then looking at the rest of the chart at these high levels it seems the QBO does change very quickly above 10 hpa.

2 - The second region of note is what is happening between 10 hpa and 20 hpa. Notice how the weakest westerly colour is still expanding and has weakened enough to reveal the couple of weak easterly patches in the middle of this region. Maybe this easterly region that doesn't show up at this resolution as well as the one descending down from above will eventually merge into a new EQBO, resulting in a failure of the WQBO instead of the EQBO

3 - Overall this chart shows that the easterly anomaly has continued to weaken and westerlies are descending down to below 40 hpa on average now. For the sake of a possible return of the EQBO this process needs to continue to allow the westerlies at 30 hpa to descend

4a and 4b - Westerlies look to be becoming ever more dominant at 30 hpa and a clear strengthening is seen on this chart, so much so that the average wind speed is now comparable with normal WQBO winds from the last WQBO. I don't know what effect this will have on the atmosphere since the WQBO layer is so shallow and with easterlies below it too with a much deeper layer.

Next I have a new chart to show you, or should I say a part of the QBO table of data from NOAA

This focuses on 30 hpa and why they consider this level of the atmosphere most important to determine the QBO is unknown to me. The red box clearly shows the first recorded QBO disruption event when the 2016 EQBO failed and returned into another year of westerlies. The orange box shows the most recent QBO figures showing the slowdown from the peak of the last WQBO into the period of weak EQBO before the slow weakening back towards westerlies again. Now what figure will be in the green box for July. Based on charts throughout this update I can imagine the number will be positive again but how positive?

Next I will show both the QBO plot chart again as well as the monthly QBO plots showing all QBO phases based on stage within the cycle

I've decided to make a prediction as to where I think July 2020 is going to feature on the right hand chart. I feel July is a weakened version of the westerlies plot graph in the top right corner near the word westerlies with weak easterlies both at the top and bottom so I feel July will be somewhere within the red circle with 07 in the middle of it as a weak westerly QBO.

As for August 2020 with some interesting recent developments with increasing signs of easterlies returning then I feel this WQBO is going to be a very short one like the last EQBO and also weak too like it and then we will possibly power up into a more normal EQBO after this strange QBO event we have had in recent months.

Another thing that backs up the building of easterlies from 20 hpa upwards is what is showing on the atmospheric charts I showed last time

Focus on all the areas showing within the green circles I have drawn over these charts. Notice the increasing prevalence of the pale blue weak easterly regions taking over close to the equator combined with the weakening of westerlies between 3 hpa and 10 hpa. Looks like the EQBO could be building back up again ready to start a new EQBO cycle off again.

Maybe there is hope that the EQBO wasn't killed off after all and in fact it could be the WQBO that should have started to descend from 10 hpa at around this point of the year that will fail instead.

[Due South]

4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Update number 4 for my QBO analysis and recent trends once again

I shall start with the QBO phase plot like I usually do which is still showing the strange pattern but less of a strange one than it was at least

This is showing 3 main areas of QBO which it has to be said can happen sometimes but the only real strange part here is just how shallow the westerly region is on the latest plot. 30hpa has a raging westerly today touching 25 m/s which is very fast for a westerly. Maybe this is in compensation for the easterlies at all other levels. As before 10hpa westerlies appear to continue to weaken as easterlies are becoming more common at this height on these plot charts.

This could be backed up by these three snapshots of the equatorial regions of the Earth at 10 hpa from today

Atlantic Region with arrows showing general wind direction or an X where it is virtually still

Pacific Region with same arrows and X's as above

Indian Ocean Region with same arrows and X's

What you probably saw, especially with the Pacific and even more so the Indian Ocean regions was the area of easterly winds. That area of easterlies has been expanding recently and is slowly speeding up too. Is this a sign the EQBO is returning to 10hpa?

Now time for the usual focus on what has taken place within the different levels of the atmosphere, starting with 10 hpa to 100 hpa

As with the previous updates the strange situation with 4 general layers of QBO continues

1 - The 10 hpa region continues to look very ragged and appears to have shifted further towards a change to EQBO. This can be backed up by the developing easterlies above Indonesia and Singapore especially at 10 hpa

2 - Easterlies continue in the region between 15 hpa and 20 hpa but as can be seen with daily variations in strength and occasional westerly days appear at times

3 - 30 hpa continues to see a dominance of the westerly QBO and still it refuses to move from this area. Maybe the changes above will help to get this region descending down to the lower stratosphere

4 - Although 40 hpa seems to have now in general lost the easterly anomaly 50 hpa to 100 hpa continue to see general easterlies persisting although still weakening overall. This should eventually allow the westerlies at 30 hpa to finally descend.

Time for the deeper atmospheric view of the QBO and some interesting developments have taken place on this chart too

1 - The first big area of note is how much the easterly QBO has descended between 3 hpa and 7 hpa in just the last few days since my last update. The last update only showed a tiny pale green mark in the corner. Now there's a whole zone of weak easterlies at all of these levels. This is really getting a move on but then looking at the rest of the chart at these high levels it seems the QBO does change very quickly above 10 hpa.

2 - The second region of note is what is happening between 10 hpa and 20 hpa. Notice how the weakest westerly colour is still expanding and has weakened enough to reveal the couple of weak easterly patches in the middle of this region. Maybe this easterly region that doesn't show up at this resolution as well as the one descending down from above will eventually merge into a new EQBO, resulting in a failure of the WQBO instead of the EQBO

3 - Overall this chart shows that the easterly anomaly has continued to weaken and westerlies are descending down to below 40 hpa on average now. For the sake of a possible return of the EQBO this process needs to continue to allow the westerlies at 30 hpa to descend

4a and 4b - Westerlies look to be becoming ever more dominant at 30 hpa and a clear strengthening is seen on this chart, so much so that the average wind speed is now comparable with normal WQBO winds from the last WQBO. I don't know what effect this will have on the atmosphere since the WQBO layer is so shallow and with easterlies below it too with a much deeper layer.

Next I have a new chart to show you, or should I say a part of the QBO table of data from NOAA

This focuses on 30 hpa and why they consider this level of the atmosphere most important to determine the QBO is unknown to me. The red box clearly shows the first recorded QBO disruption event when the 2016 EQBO failed and returned into another year of westerlies. The orange box shows the most recent QBO figures showing the slowdown from the peak of the last WQBO into the period of weak EQBO before the slow weakening back towards westerlies again. Now what figure will be in the green box for July. Based on charts throughout this update I can imagine the number will be positive again but how positive?

Next I will show both the QBO plot chart again as well as the monthly QBO plots showing all QBO phases based on stage within the cycle

I've decided to make a prediction as to where I think July 2020 is going to feature on the right hand chart. I feel July is a weakened version of the westerlies plot graph in the top right corner near the word westerlies with weak easterlies both at the top and bottom so I feel July will be somewhere within the red circle with 07 in the middle of it as a weak westerly QBO.

As for August 2020 with some interesting recent developments with increasing signs of easterlies returning then I feel this WQBO is going to be a very short one like the last EQBO and also weak too like it and then we will possibly power up into a more normal EQBO after this strange QBO event we have had in recent months.

Another thing that backs up the building of easterlies from 20 hpa upwards is what is showing on the atmospheric charts I showed last time

Focus on all the areas showing within the green circles I have drawn over these charts. Notice the increasing prevalence of the pale blue weak easterly regions taking over close to the equator combined with the weakening of westerlies between 3 hpa and 10 hpa. Looks like the EQBO could be building back up again ready to start a new EQBO cycle off again.

Maybe there is hope that the EQBO wasn't killed off after all and in fact it could be the WQBO that should have started to descend from 10 hpa at around this point of the year that will fail instead.

Hi. What's your thoughts on the upcoming winter regarding the QBO?

[SqueakheartLW]

3 hours ago, Due South said:

Hi. What's your thoughts on the upcoming winter regarding the QBO?

I imagine it depends on whether the EQBO fails or reforms. We have the possible weak La Nina, low solar activity and surely a chance of a weaker polar vortex than that beast vortex of doom from winter 2019/20. Also it looks like the Indian Ocean Dipole is heading negative this winter instead of positive like it was last winter. With the possibility of an Atlantic tripole too then we have many factors in our favour already. What we don't need is something to go against us with a failed EQBO and a fully formed WQBO for this winter as no doubt knowing our luck in the UK the WQBO would override all of the other good signals. The main thing that is currently against us is the warm NE Pacific that refuses to do one. At least if we see the EQBO reform then this could help get us a colder winter. If you like mild winters then pray for an EQBO failure and a return of the WQBO.

[sebastiaan1973]

2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34

July QBO 0.34.
Thanks SqueakheartLW for your updates. 

[sebastiaan1973]

at 30 hPa the QBO is + 10 m/s (!) (equator). Surrounded by a blow (negative) sea. 

Edited August 3, 2020 by sebastiaan1973

[SMU]

Evening - 

A very poor update on the QBO if your looking for an EQBO phase driven winter. 

As it stands the cyclical EQBO phase for 2020 has failed with us officially recording a month now as WQBO at 30 HPA. 

The failure isnt as spectacular as 2015-16 where the Easterly downwelling stopped at about 12HPA > 2020 has seen weak easterlies down past 30HPA, however similar to 15/16 the Westerlies have quickly returned across all levels.

The westerlies have expanded & now cover 10HPA all the way down to 60HPA :(.

Based on current projections August will come in around +3 > +5.

The only thing to cling on to is the downwelling neutrals from 3HPA

Will review that at the start of Sept...

[Don]

12 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening - 

A very poor update on the QBO if your looking for an EQBO phase driven winter. 

As it stands the cyclical EQBO phase for 2020 has failed with us officially recording a month now as WQBO at 30 HPA. 

The failure isnt as spectacular as 2015-16 where the Easterly downwelling stopped at about 12HPA > 2020 has seen weak easterlies down past 30HPA, however similar to 15/16 the Westerlies have quickly returned across all levels.

The westerlies have expanded & now cover 10HPA all the way down to 60HPA :(.

Based on current projections August will come in around +3 > +5.

The only thing to cling on to is the downwelling neutrals from 3HPA

Will review that at the start of Sept...

Oh dear, more bad news.....

[SqueakheartLW]

15 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

at 30 hPa the QBO is + 10 m/s (!) (equator). Surrounded by a blow (negative) sea. 

The thing we can hold hope in for the EQBO is the fact that the weak westerlies in the 2 to 10 hpa region have in general weakened in the last few weeks. The main problem is how much that easterly anomaly wants to stick around between 60 and 100 hpa

My prediction as to where we would be on the QBO chart for July 2020 wasn't that far out either but rather annoyingly we ended up close to the right of my circle rather than near the left of it

Prediction

Actual recording

Not so good news if you want the EQBO to win out. Looks more like the line will continue upwards towards a full blown WQBO before the end of the year and will fit my bad news theory from earlier on in my updates

I was hoping more for route 2 on this chart but it looks like the dreaded route 1 is winning out.

The only real hope that the EQBO is trying to fight back is that another renewed easterly wind burst has formed above the Pacific at 10 hpa again like the one that was taking place at my last update

A nice zone of easterlies is now forming above the Pacific once again

This also is matched by another zone above the Indian Ocean where a weaker zone of neutral to weak easterlies is also present

Is this a sign that the down welling of the neutral to easterlies above 10 hpa will soon be showing itself at this height. Hope to see some resolution before the autumn starts but I hold little hope of this

[SqueakheartLW]

19 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34

July QBO 0.34.
Thanks SqueakheartLW for your updates. 

Weakest and shortest EQBO on record. Only 6 months and peaking at a rather pathetic -5.03. At least we managed to get an EQBO this time unlike in 2016 when the numbers never went negative. Also I think that 2.51 should be -2.51

2020                Lowest figure = -5.03 in April 2020

Jan     Feb      Mar     Apr      May     Jun     Jul

-2.51   -3.20   -4.36   -5.03   -4.86   -2.78   +0.34

2016                Lowest figure = +0.64 in April 2016

Jan     Feb      Mar     Apr      May     Jun     Jul

+9.34 +6.77   +3.16  +0.64   +2.37   +3.86  +6.25

Edited August 4, 2020 by SqueakheartLW

[Don]

Another kick in the teeth for those of us hoping for a colder winter!  Good news for the mild weather lovers.

[Polar Bears in Doncaster]

More chaos to the science of weather forecasting!

[Don]

1 hour ago, Polar Bears in Doncaster said:

More chaos to the science of weather forecasting!

It ain’t gonna get any easier!

[jules216]

I wouldn't write of this winter just because of this QBO anomaly again. I am in the @CreweCold camp and think we are in for a good winter. We have tracking quite close to my analog years this summer of which the best are 1970,1995 and 2005. Current ACE in Atlantic and number of TS is akin to a blend of 1995 and 2005 so far and perhaps atmosphere might remember this in few months time and we will achieve at least some blocking to the north.

[Don]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

I wouldn't write of this winter just because of this QBO anomaly again. I am in the @CreweCold camp and think we are in for a good winter. We have tracking quite close to my analog years this summer of which the best are 1970,1995 and 2005. Current ACE in Atlantic and number of TS is akin to a blend of 1995 and 2005 so far and perhaps atmosphere might remember this in few months time and we will achieve at least some blocking to the north.

I understand what you’re saying but my concern is that the QBO failure will throw a spanner in the works.

[snowking]

To be honest, I would treat the QBO as one of those teleconnections we cannot rely upon for longer range weather forecasting for this year. Given the bizarre nature of it so far in 2020 we don't really have any analogous years to compare it to, with the overall makeup of the tropical stratosphere seemingly different even from our last failed eQBO. So whilst it will have some sort of impact, it's pretty near impossible to predict what this impact might be for the seasons ahead.

[Don]

34 minutes ago, snowking said:

To be honest, I would treat the QBO as one of those teleconnections we cannot rely upon for longer range weather forecasting for this year. Given the bizarre nature of it so far in 2020 we don't really have any analogous years to compare it to, with the overall makeup of the tropical stratosphere seemingly different even from our last failed eQBO. So whilst it will have some sort of impact, it's pretty near impossible to predict what this impact might be for the seasons ahead.

Who would want to be a long range forecaster now?!