Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

[bluearmy]

Guess what ........

 

[Sir Saats a lot]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Guess what ........

 

Again today?

[bluearmy]

4 hours ago, Sir Saats a lot said:

Again today?

Yep

[mb018538]

10 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Yep

I'm looking for signs of PV weakening - can't find anything yet....the GFS 00z today has it running at record strength almost entirely throughout the next 2 weeks. Insane.

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I'm looking for signs of PV weakening - can't find anything yet....the GFS 00z today has it running at record strength almost entirely throughout the next 2 weeks. Insane.

I think today will be the last date record of the current series 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

I'm looking for signs of PV weakening - can't find anything yet....the GFS 00z today has it running at record strength almost entirely throughout the next 2 weeks. Insane.

How long has it been recorded for though?.. Im under the impression that records do not go back for long, therefore breaking records will be pretty easy..

[stodge]

11 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I'm looking for signs of PV weakening - can't find anything yet....the GFS 00z today has it running at record strength almost entirely throughout the next 2 weeks. Insane.

Indeed, not a hint of Wave 1 warming in the next two weeks..

The PV cannot continue at such levels ad infinitum - the question is whether the decline will be gradual well into April or even May or whether we will see a sudden and intense Final Warming which might not only open the door for some late cold but set up strong northern blocking for late spring and early summer.

Edited February 21, 2020 by stodge

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, stodge said:

Indeed, not a hint of Wave 1 warming in the next two weeks..

The PV cannot continue at such levels ad infinitum - the question is whether the decline will be gradual well into April or even May or whether we will see a sudden and intense Final Warming which might not only open the door for some late cold but set up strong northern blocking for late spring and early summer.

Yes, that is exactly the question now.  Forget winter, that's done from a strat point of view, the impact on the following summer is the issue.  Summer lovers would much prefer the former of the two scenarios you mention!  

[bluearmy]

We’ve eeked out another record date .....

[Gray-Wolf]

Isn't the returning Sun the death knell for the PNJ?

Could we not just see it fade in an orderly manner over the coming 4 weeks as the sun again lights the whole of the atmosphere at that level?

[bluearmy]

23 hours ago, bluearmy said:

We’ve eeked out another record date .....

Guess what ?

 

 

its over ...........

[Don]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Guess what ?

 

 

its over ...........

What, the PV has blown itself out overnight?! 

[Gray-Wolf]

I just have to wonder if it's speeds mean that we will have no 'wonkey' end to the PNJ's time with us and the 'final Warming' will prove benign..... and Summer will be wonderful for the sunlit uplands and all the Unicorns.......

Edited February 24, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Cloud 10]

30mb temps have a loooong...way to go this year.

 

[bluearmy]

Surprised to see today’s reading of 44 m/s being another date record!

[bluearmy]

I’m making a wild stab in the dark that tomorrow could see a date record ....

[feb1991blizzard]

On 24/02/2020 at 12:08, Cloud 10 said:

30mb temps have a loooong...way to go this year.

 

 

I wish they would do it soon and in a very short space of time.

[Weather-history]

 

I wonder what the latest date for final warming is on record? 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Weather-history

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

I wonder what the latest date for final warming is on record? 

The only data i can find is this tweet from Amy Butler  - latest warming is 1981 (May 12th). She does state that research shows that Winter seasons without any PV disruptions (such as this one) you are more likely to see an earlier final warming. We will see...

[joggs]

With it been a incredible winter of such a cold and strong vortex I wonder if it could stay locked up up there later until the final warming and hopefully get a very northerly tracking jet and top summer or flip side southerly tracking jet(solar min) and total opposite.......

What's people's thoughts?

[Gray-Wolf]

Jen Francis has documented the 'average position' of the Polar Jet edging Northwards since the turn of the century (though often 'masked by the extra loopiness we've also been seeing?) so if we are seeing a return to what used to be 'the norm' (augmented by the AGW changes thus far?), as this winters PNJ appears to show?, then the Jet could, potentially, find itself well to our north as it powers on from the Icelandic Lows?

Here's hoping!

Edited February 28, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Weather-history]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The only data i can find is this tweet from Amy Butler  - latest warming is 1981 (May 12th). She does state that research shows that Winter seasons without any PV disruptions (such as this one) you are more likely to see an earlier final warming. We will see...

Cheers, May the 12th. That is late.

[Dorsetbred]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The only data i can find is this tweet from Amy Butler  - latest warming is 1981 (May 12th). She does state that research shows that Winter seasons without any PV disruptions (such as this one) you are more likely to see an earlier final warming. We will see...

I have  no where near the level of weather knowledge that AMY has, but a comment like "...we are more likely to see a dynamic early final warming.... " surely is somewhat 'off the cuff'? This year has proven to be extraordinary by historical knowledge, but as the table shows with FW dates it can still roll on yet for another couple of months, but a "we are more likely to see a dynamic early final warming." , seems to be an unknown given how this how played out so far.. Just a comment not a troll, as I'm wondering why the feeling is "dynamic" versus "peters out" for example..

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

I have  no where near the level of weather knowledge that AMY has, but a comment like "...we are more likely to see a dynamic early final warming.... " surely is somewhat 'off the cuff'? This year has proven to be extraordinary by historical knowledge, but as the table shows with FW dates it can still roll on yet for another couple of months, but a "we are more likely to see a dynamic early final warming." , seems to be an unknown given how this how played out so far.. Just a comment not a troll, as I'm wondering why the feeling is "dynamic" versus "peters out" for example..

I don't understand your point here? Dr Butler is just stating that from available data, if there is no SSW/PV disruptions in a winter season, we are more likely to see a dynamic early final warming. She's not saying 2020 will have an early warming at all, it's just more likely from past data. As she is a world renowned expert in the strat area, I'd take note of her thoughts!

My understanding is that seasons without any PV disruptions tend to have much colder temperatures over the pole and a tighter/stronger polar jet locking everything in place....so when the balance tips and the warming starts to happen, the collapse is just that much stronger that it can't recover. The bigger they are, the harder they fall and all that.

[damianslaw]

The PV has behaved in a similiar fashion to winter 13/14, except one month out, in winter 13/14 in remained robust and locked in sit right from the get go, and never really lessened its grip until late Feb, so won't be surprised to see March dominated by a similiar positioned PV, perhaps the jet tracking more southerly though, so a colder more unsettled pattern than Jan and Feb.