Dennis Posted January 18, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 18, 2020 (edited) SSW seen for late Jan Edited January 18, 2020 by Dennis 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Posted January 18, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 18, 2020 zonal winds 10Hpa 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluearmy Posted January 18, 2020 Location: st albans Location: st albans Share Posted January 18, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Dennis said: SSW seen for late Jan I haven’t been religiously studying the latter stages of the gfs high up but the 00z run is reversing down to around 3 hpa by early feb .... trend or outlier? Given the glosea run from the other day perhaps trend ??? Edited January 18, 2020 by bluearmy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Posted January 18, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 18, 2020 (edited) 33 minutes ago, bluearmy said: I haven’t been religiously studying the latter stages of the gfs high up but the 00z run is reversing down to around 3 hpa by early feb .... trend or outlier? Given the glosea run from the other day perhaps trend ??? to me it seems a first sign to a trend now ---- it shows more and more a warming into the strato last days Edited January 18, 2020 by Dennis 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluearmy Posted January 18, 2020 Location: st albans Location: st albans Share Posted January 18, 2020 Definitely reversed at the top looked like it wasn’t quite below 2hpa 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Posted January 18, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 18, 2020 we waited to see like this : a strato-warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interitus Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 6 hours ago, bluearmy said: Definitely reversed at the top looked like it wasn’t quite below 2hpa Good estimates, -10.6 min at 1mb, 0.6 at 2mb. Compared to 21.9 ms and 27.3 on the 06z mind you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirkcaldy Weather Posted January 18, 2020 Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰 Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorsetbred Posted January 18, 2020 Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL Share Posted January 18, 2020 So..."...could hold off until the latter half of February..", suggestion would be to change the word could to will, certainly confirming this winter is still flatlined from a cold perspective. Mind you, as has often been said around, whilst folks don't like the MetO for their straight talking, they have this winter completely nailed... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Posted January 18, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 18, 2020 SSW still near end Jan starting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Posted January 19, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 19, 2020 SSW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Posted January 20, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 20, 2020 some should strart at Febr begin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidS Posted January 20, 2020 Location: Abergavenny Location: Abergavenny Share Posted January 20, 2020 Looks to be a double warming event. Here at T240 then T384. In between the warming seems to dissipate then build again. Obviously all outside the reliable timeframe, and doesn’t look like it really gets into the pole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legritter Posted January 20, 2020 Location: winscombe north somerset Weather Preferences: action weather Location: winscombe north somerset Share Posted January 20, 2020 Hi gang ,just out of interest i have recently read an article about the 62 /63 winter ,i was a young lad of 11 when this historic winter started ,as you all know prior to Dec 26th 1962 ,the weather had been very mixed but there had been snow falls and cold temperatures .A trough moved south on the 26th and the rest is history . But i have only recently read that there was a SSW Towards the end of January which kept the winter going with high pressure throughout feb and in to march .my question is ,with your knowledge does any posters know of any written documents or any info as to what kickstarted the onset of this Winter around the Christmas period. Since this winter of 62 /63 science ofuper air ,stratosphere etc as become very advanced , and we know that a SSW is no guarantee of cold heaven here in the uk .wonder if the winter of 46 /47 was the result of an SSW IN LATE or mid January, but there again the foundations were there at short periods before January 20th .I did have all these answers in my 400 and odd magazines etc of the Royal meteorological society, but since my late wife passed on 2 yrs ago i had a good clear out , finished with my fellowship of the R msc and now addicted to net weather ,free of course and some great posters .i can now twitch the curtains at night looking for snow when its about ,without being told off ,how i miss being told off .cheers gang if you were all here i would cook up some sausages, get the BAPS OUT, plus brown sauce, keep up the good work ,very informative, and may winter bring us what we Crave for. Cheers . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirkcaldy Weather Posted January 20, 2020 Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰 Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL Share Posted January 20, 2020 @legritter On 18/09/2019 at 14:50, Kirkcaldy Weather said: Found these articles "Negative NAO and cold Eurasian winters: How exceptional was the winter of 1962/1963?" https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wea.34 "The 1962/1963 winter as observed at Belstead Hall (Suffolk) and through investigation of the synoptic charts" https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.2040 "Tropical origin of the severe European winter of 1962/1963" https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2346 Also another article if you type in google The Mid-Winter 1963 Stratospheric Warming and Circulation change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knocker Posted January 20, 2020 Location: Camborne Location: Camborne Share Posted January 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, legritter said: Hi gang ,just out of interest i have recently read an article about the 62 /63 winter ,i was a young lad of 11 when this historic winter started ,as you all know prior to Dec 26th 1962 ,the weather had been very mixed but there had been snow falls and cold temperatures .A trough moved south on the 26th and the rest is history . But i have only recently read that there was a SSW Towards the end of January which kept the winter going with high pressure throughout feb and in to march .my question is ,with your knowledge does any posters know of any written documents or any info as to what kickstarted the onset of this Winter around the Christmas period. Since this winter of 62 /63 science ofuper air ,stratosphere etc as become very advanced , and we know that a SSW is no guarantee of cold heaven here in the uk .wonder if the winter of 46 /47 was the result of an SSW IN LATE or mid January, but there again the foundations were there at short periods before January 20th .I did have all these answers in my 400 and odd magazines etc of the Royal meteorological society, but since my late wife passed on 2 yrs ago i had a good clear out , finished with my fellowship of the R msc and now addicted to net weather ,free of course and some great posters .i can now twitch the curtains at night looking for snow when its about ,without being told off ,how i miss being told off .cheers gang if you were all here i would cook up some sausages, get the BAPS OUT, plus brown sauce, keep up the good work ,very informative, and may winter bring us what we Crave for. Cheers . Tropical origin of the severe European winter of 1962/1963 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2346 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legritter Posted January 20, 2020 Location: winscombe north somerset Weather Preferences: action weather Location: winscombe north somerset Share Posted January 20, 2020 Thanks a million Knocker ,thats what i was looking for i will have a good read later , thanks for all your info on the forums ,cheers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Posted January 20, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 20, 2020 the vortex got a warming SSW - this is a phase1 of maybe a winter setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Posted January 21, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 21, 2020 (edited) this morning ideas to the strato - well it is something to watch and it maybe comes to a pattern change late Feb/Mar to now a canadianwarming shows up - i think some nice ideas can show up soon Edited January 21, 2020 by Dennis 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALL ABOARD Posted January 21, 2020 Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl Share Posted January 21, 2020 Game on? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Posted January 21, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 21, 2020 if you are unknown to the SSW terms then this is a nice read article: GES DISC DISC.GSFC.NASA.GOV {{datasetProvider.searchConstraints.keywords.join(' ') | uppercase}}, Unified User Interface at NASA, UUI, data, GES DISC, datasets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirkcaldy Weather Posted January 21, 2020 Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰 Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL Share Posted January 21, 2020 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
damianslaw Posted January 21, 2020 Location: Windermere 120m asl Location: Windermere 120m asl Share Posted January 21, 2020 6 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said: Perhaps this might imprint on a pattern change towards latter part of February, would not be surprised to see winter finally arrive when people's thoughts are turning to spring. Traditionally the PV weakens second half of Feb any way and northerly, easterly airstreams come to the surface. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Posted January 21, 2020 Location: Longden, Shropshire Location: Longden, Shropshire Share Posted January 21, 2020 52 minutes ago, damianslaw said: Perhaps this might imprint on a pattern change towards latter part of February, would not be surprised to see winter finally arrive when people's thoughts are turning to spring. Traditionally the PV weakens second half of Feb any way and northerly, easterly airstreams come to the surface. I do hope so. Spring can wait after the winter we've endured so far! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis Posted January 22, 2020 Location: Norway Location: Norway Share Posted January 22, 2020 Febr hope grows to an SSW -so this must be seen as a start of kicking the PV first 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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