Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

OK, this is going to get interesting. General concensus on a rapidly growing SPV. Wave and flux activity looking very promising.

Intrigued how this is going to play out.

A huge Wave 1, sprawling wave 2, coinciding with the vortex winding up...

EC has 1 hPa dropping very sharply back to mid November strength with 10 and 30 hPa following, to me that does not seem that we will get a strong vortex, strong vortices always seem to gain strength in the upper levels first 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[ArHu3]

After a forecasted rebound the 1 hPa winds are forecast to decrease again,  let's hope this trend now continues (although in previous years it usually oscillated downwards)

[Dennis]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

After a forecasted rebound the 1 hPa winds are forecast to decrease again,  let's hope this trend now continues (although in previous years it usually oscillated downwards)

I hope so with the wave1 ahead.....

[mb018538]

This mornings 00z charts showing nothing appearing for the remainder of 2019, with the zonal winds holding steady at 35m/s, and no interest yet for any decrease:

[Redbull165]

Also for the first time this winter season we are seeing a moderate wave 2 activity from the Azores high. Also the help with QBO- at the top of the stratosfere might be slowly, but surely kicking in.

We know.

Wave 1 = Aleutian  pressure system (Aleutian Islands in north Pacific).
Wave 2 = Azores pressure system
Wave 3 = Russian-Asian pressure system   (in the cold part of the year in the central part of Russia)

I think we have interesting times ahead of us. Januar might suprise us in a good way, I have that feeling.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Redbull165

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Dennis said:

 there is building one ....

Not sure that it will materialise this early, i have looked back at a few analogues - not many i must admit so small sample size but looks to me like Indian Ocean Sector and then continuation around into phase 7 and 8 is the best MJO analogue for SSW's , ECM not looking very high amplitude MJO at all at the moment.

[Dennis]

5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure that it will materialise this early, i have looked back at a few analogues - not many i must admit so small sample size but looks to me like Indian Ocean Sector and then continuation around into phase 7 and 8 is the best MJO analogue for SSW's , ECM not looking very high amplitude MJO at all at the moment.

GFS sees MJO 7 higher 

[ArHu3]

 

6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure that it will materialise this early, i have looked back at a few analogues - not many i must admit so small sample size but looks to me like Indian Ocean Sector and then continuation around into phase 7 and 8 is the best MJO analogue for SSW's , ECM not looking very high amplitude MJO at all at the moment.

 

6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure that it will materialise this early, i have looked back at a few analogues - not many i must admit so small sample size but looks to me like Indian Ocean Sector and then continuation around into phase 7 and 8 is the best MJO analogue for SSW's , ECM not looking very high amplitude MJO at all at the moment.

this is yesterday's plot but the same problem is still current, because the different members of the ensemble go to such different sectors the average amplitude is low 

Edited December 16, 2019 by ArHu3

[Dennis]

It comes to an intersting phase in the strato .....

 

 

      

Edited December 16, 2019 by Dennis

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Catacol]

EC clusters strongly suggesting a potentially nasty scenario for the vortex at this point at the tail end of the year. Ties into those wave 2 charts above. Berlin charts tonight show gradual elongation of the vortex too.

If we are about to see a period of -NAO type anomalies as per JMA and CPC 3-4 week modelling then chances of an SSW tail end of January are solidifying as an option. Nothing ever is certain, but these are promising developments.

[Dennis]

zonal winds forecast

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, Dennis said:

zonal winds forecast

So much for solar minimum winter!

[Don]

17 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

So much for solar minimum winter!

But doesn’t that show them dropping back, albeit only to average?

Edited December 17, 2019 by Don

[Dennis]

44 minutes ago, Don said:

But doesn’t that show them dropping back, albeit only to average?

they do : here the range within the last 5 days

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Dennis]

The vortex gets a hard-knock at his door  an ssw is maybe soon seen

 

[Blessed Weather]

The big two models showing a strong Siberian block building over Christmas with a cross-Polar flow (marked) across the troposphere. The reason behind another period of Wave 1 attack on the Strat Vortex and slowing of the ZMZW at 10hPa 60N?

GFS 27th Dec  ECM 27th

Wave amplitude at 10hPa:

Source: http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratospheric-forecast-wave-series/

ZMZW at 10hPa 60N:

Source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_60N_10hpa_gefs.png

[Redbull165]

Its only for comparing reasons. But here is a zonal-wind chart from the top of the stratosfere to the troposfere from SSW winters 2017-18 and 2012/13. You see in both cases QBO- was the dominant thing.

15.2.2018.

8.1.2013, right after a technical SSW event, you see the propagation of very-weak zonal winds into the troposfere.

And right now we are about here, QBO-east winter, now we need more of the wave activity, which will put the pressure on the polar vortex.

We can currently see some similarity to winter of 2011-12. But we know what happened next and how we got an extremely cold end of january and february in the most of Europe in the end.

Edited December 18, 2019 by Redbull165

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Redbull165 said:

Its only for comparing reasons. But here is a zonal-wind chart from the top of the stratosfere to the troposfere from SSW winters 2017-18 and 2012/13. You see in both cases QBO- was the dominant thing.

15.2.2018.

8.1.2013, right after a technical SSW event, you see the propagation of very-weak zonal winds into the troposfere.

And right now we are about here, QBO-east winter, now we need more of the wave activity, which will put the pressure on the polar vortex.

We can currently see some similarity to winter of 2011-12. But we know what happened next and how we got an extremely cold end of january and february in the most of Europe in the end.

Winter 11/12 brought a colder interlude from late Jan until mid Feb, preety decent with some snow and lots of frost, but I remember the cold centred more over Europe. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Glacier Point]

Blocking signatures starting to show up in high latitudes consistent with precursor pattern as per above.

Next Wave 1 attack expected early in the New Year and EPS beginning to pick this up with warming over Siberia projected and our now familiar displaced vortex centre. Would expect this continue to build and a SSW very possible during second half of January.

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

Blocking signatures starting to show up in high latitudes consistent with precursor pattern as per above.

Next Wave 1 attack expected early in the New Year and EPS beginning to pick this up with warming over Siberia projected and our now familiar displaced vortex centre. Would expect this continue to build and a SSW very possible during second half of January.

But will be the vortex be displaced where we want it or where we don't want it!

[tcc]

27 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

But will be the vortex be displaced where we want it or where we don't want it!

Exactly, could end up over Greenland and Boom, more rain. let's hope our luck changes and we get an actual split!