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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
21 minutes ago, knocker said:

The warming at 50mb this morning

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t50_anom-5504000.thumb.png.5ae3f8bcb8c4aa28046ba52dd1d2f2a8.png

 

What did 10hps look like knocks?

yesterdays 12z ec op had a tech ssw just below 70N by day 10 with the spv displaced well to the Asian side 

the gefs this morning have reverted to a much slower zonal flow through week 2 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

What did 10hps look like knocks?

yesterdays 12z ec op had a tech ssw just below 70N by day 10 with the spv displaced well to the Asian side 

the gefs this morning have reverted to a much slower zonal flow through week 2 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.a81f3c94491aa75280d40291a622e06a.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.64bce401fd0200ce862de4322ebcc39b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
17 minutes ago, knocker said:

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.a81f3c94491aa75280d40291a622e06a.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.64bce401fd0200ce862de4322ebcc39b.png

The first chart there I think is a good reason why only looking at the 60N U-component mean can be a little misleading, as discussed above. The steepest gradient is - as far as I can tell - right on the 60 degree line of latitude. Looking at the GFS op for the same time:

gfsnh-17-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

06z GEFS look good, pretty much all of them go for a Major warming event at 10hpa, the Op probaly the worst of the lot and a slight step back from the 00z.

Op/Mean/00z Op

1789223762_gfsnh-10-360op.thumb.png.b98df9de3621f819a27e753bf02db564.png1189443431_gensnh-21-7-360Mean.thumb.png.c717301980bcc7961c26b1a5b918dc20.png1358405794_gfsnh-10-36000z.thumb.png.d9ca42e02c33d4b5db922acb00e2daf4.png

onto the 12z we go, afterall the 06z GFS is only worthy of the Bin 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

Although the GEFS have had some ups and downs I would still stick with them over the GFS which still appears to be more inconsistent (similar to last winter as I have mentioned) 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The ellipses plot from stratobserve is of interest today, based on 0z runs:

image.thumb.jpg.0af17f14cc3ac19d24fa2c15d11b8665.jpg

That is T384, so 6 reversals there, and P17 and P20 are interesting as they hint at a split too.  

Interesting also the comment re FV3 from @Kirkcaldy Weather above, I have been suspicious of it in the strat for a while now.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
21 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Is a pv disruption likely by mid December then?

Increasing likelihood, I would say for a SSW about that time, watch this space!

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
On 17/11/2019 at 16:56, Blessed Weather said:

Anyone not doing anything over the next 4 days? ECMWF will be live-streaming their workshop on “Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere” during 18th to 21st November 2019 and it's open to all with no registration or login required. There's some big names taking part including Amy Butler and Simon Lee.

"The topics will include understanding and diagnosing stratosphere-troposphere interactions, improved parametrizations and numerical schemes, the role of water vapour and ozone, observational evaluation and data assimilation."

@ghoneym has kindly posted the link through to the workshop presentations in the Teleconnections thread. Thanks Gary.

"A lot of presentations to get through but worth a watch, lots of learnings. Amy Butler's presentation is superb in session 1."

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
14 hours ago, knocker said:

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.a81f3c94491aa75280d40291a622e06a.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5504000.thumb.png.64bce401fd0200ce862de4322ebcc39b.png

I'm just going to have to get weatherbell. With the demise of freely available GSDM products the range of tools this season is down on last, and these charts are very good. We may reap the benefit of this strong wave 1 warming in helping maintain that Greenland High anomaly in the longer term. Or the vortex may ping back to the centre and intensify....but somehow I think this winter has a vortex story to tell. Great watching - thanks Knocker.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

@ghoneym has kindly posted the link through to the workshop presentations in the Teleconnections thread. Thanks Gary.

"A lot of presentations to get through but worth a watch, lots of learnings. Amy Butler's presentation is superb in session 1."

Download them using clipgrab for a permanent record...

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Warming starting to appear now at 10hpa,Up she goes.

pole10_nh.thumb.gif.b58234f147a7847412c9d2de97436888.gif

wave 1 forecast.

jikei_uep_nh.thumb.gif.88ec72783cc33c82f980fad2eada4bc9.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Big issues becoming ever more apparent with the gfsv3 and it’s handling of the strat 

remember that this is the first winter we will have seen the model in action high up and it’s continual disagreement with the gefs is a worry - add the ec op to this ...........

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Big issues becoming ever more apparent with the gfsv3 and it’s handling of the strat 

remember that this is the first winter we will have seen the model in action high up and it’s continual disagreement with the gefs is a worry - add the ec op to this ...........

Well we know from previous year the gfs old version wasn't really that good in forecasting the stratosphere, often it would miss the oscillation at the tail end and end up overshooting forecasting almost always way too much decrease. In previous years the gfs basically saw a ssw at the end of each run for the entire winter 

Edited by ArHu3
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