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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
19 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

What would this mean?

 

It would mean that blocked patterns would be likely to affect the weather down here, if the high pressure blocks position themselves favourably, it could mean cold weather for the UK - recently they haven't been favourably placed, but that could change easily.  In particular it means that a rampant trop vortex, which would cause mild wet and windy weather for the UK, is unlikely in the foreseeable.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

That's a great chart knocker - Matt sent it earlier... it's a squeeze but we also have an Atlantic wall of warming for it to squeeze against.

For that view the 50hPa run is incredible, complete carnage.

Post it up then - i will use it as my avatar!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

one element of carnage

image.thumb.png.456b4e18916a0a81633838b333817209.png

Thanks - yes great chart, hope to see this sort of pattern even higher than 50mb on subsequent runs!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

^^

Knowing our luck it will pan out exactly as Matt alludes to in his last sentence.

I much prefer a warming canadian side ...

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Stratobserve charts from today's GFS 0z maintain the signal for a strat trop disconnect in the NAM plot:

image.thumb.jpg.3ad0621941e1c2153fd242edfc79e619.jpg

Zonal winds:

image.thumb.jpg.d36bd63e8a07e2e853d1f494b412fef5.jpg

The odd ensemble member getting pretty close to a reversal there.  Interesting!

And the strat vortex T384;

image.thumb.jpg.ad71356ef0fddcc44d71090dc928574d.jpg

And the vortex at the bottom displaced away from Canada.  

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
1 hour ago, knocker said:

 

What’s he mean by weak or strong? Swift turn around within 48 hours 13th to 15th. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

^^

Knowing our luck it will pan out exactly as Matt alludes to in his last sentence.

I much prefer a warming canadian side ...

Hasn’t this been the issue for the last few years?

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
6 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

^^

Knowing our luck it will pan out exactly as Matt alludes to in his last sentence.

I much prefer a warming canadian side ...

Quite possibly this could happen, the conditions on the surface will then be dictated by the position of the jetstream and its strength.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
17 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

^^

Knowing our luck it will pan out exactly as Matt alludes to in his last sentence.

I much prefer a warming canadian side ...

With displacements more often than not we end up on the warm side. We need a split for cold and then a single split not the weird triple daughter vortices we ended up having, with a smaller daughter stuck in Greenland and no place to go. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Looks like a Wave1 assault to follow wave2.

ecmwfzm_ha1_f240.thumb.gif.dfefcdb9d6f4746a73ab4f98df646038.gif

Nice to see the 0 appear in the scale. I wonder if or how long before we get the odd member dip below?

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.5d91b9b4378a3f1900141ac036267273.png

And interesting to see that has already been acheived at 65N...

u_65N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.1eb3c985f56576480b3c8133344d1aa6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Looks like a Wave1 assault to follow wave2.

ecmwfzm_ha1_f240.thumb.gif.dfefcdb9d6f4746a73ab4f98df646038.gif

Nice to see the 0 appear in the scale. I wonder if or how long before we get the odd member dip below?

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.5d91b9b4378a3f1900141ac036267273.png

And interesting to see that has already been acheived at 65N...

u_65N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.1eb3c985f56576480b3c8133344d1aa6.png

Maybe the new GFS is better but last year and the years before GFS always overestimated the decrease in zonal winds more than a week out. It regularly saw the ssw 6-8 weeks too early 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
33 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Maybe the new GFS is better but last year and the years before GFS always overestimated the decrease in zonal winds more than a week out. It regularly saw the ssw 6-8 weeks too early 

It did at least correctly pick up early on on the U-wind decrease through December and projection of the SSW itself.

But you are correct, it did get the timing of the subsequent SSW quite wrong from its very earliest projections.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Sad because strat forecasts are generally more reliable but in light of this, it might be a year to stick to the ECM op 240, pity we haven't got the EPS strat charts.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Sad because strat forecasts are generally more reliable but in light of this, it might be a year to stick to the ECM op 240, pity we haven't got the EPS strat charts.

Ecm operational also overestimates the decrease in zonal winds but less so than GFS. In previous it was still about 2 weeks too early 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Ecm operational also overestimates the decrease in zonal winds but less so than GFS. In previous it was still about 2 weeks too early 

I actually think the GFS op around 2012 and 2013 was very reliable with the strat, you would get a timing issue with SSW's - generally at 384 it was about 5 days too aggressive but thats not bad at that range, also it used to have the odd rogue run with either an SSW with the daughter vortices in totally the wrong place or actually put the SSW back too far.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
15 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Of interest 

 

 

Presumably this is data from the current GloSea runs (or run singular), and not those that have generated the DJF forecast (which would have been from the October runs)? It looks like an SSW for early Dec, but hard to tell if it's a major one without seeing the actual numbers.

As for the westerlies at 500hPa...well yes, but if it ran forward a few more days/weeks...?

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
Just now, Yarmy said:

 

Presumably this is data from the current GloSea runs (or run singular), and not those that have generated the DJF forecast (which would have been from the October runs)? It looks like an SSW for early Dec, but hard to tell if it's a major one without seeing the actual numbers.

As for the westerlies at the surface...well yes, but if it ran forward a few more days/weeks...?

Yep, be interesting to see if they continue to show that, higher chance of unsetlled early Dec, but then  possible downwelling in time for Christmas. Interesting stuff, so many things going on this winter!

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