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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Gotta admit the LRF's so far are absolutely rubbish for us in western Europe. But they've been wrong before. No doubt Greece & Turkey will get pummeled with snow. They often do being on the eastern side of a Euro high.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
14 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Gotta admit the LRF's so far are absolutely rubbish for us in western Europe. But they've been wrong before. No doubt Greece & Turkey will get pummeled with snow. They often do being on the eastern side of a Euro high.

Yes, certainly SE europe has been the big winner in the last 30 years..

The thing with high pressure in Winter is an adjustment north of the prediction can mean bitterly cold for the UK.

Anyway, probably drifting O/T now..

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

No doubt Greece & Turkey will get pummeled with snow. They often do being on the eastern side of a Euro high.

Well, you know where to book your winter holiday then!  That GLOSEA5 outlook really couldn’t be any worse for cold and snow lovers.  Sadly the latest ECMWF outlook strongly supports it, too.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, certainly SE europe has been the big winner in the last 30 years..

The thing with high pressure in Winter is an adjustment north of the prediction can mean bitterly cold for the UK.

Anyway, probably drifting O/T now..

I see your point. I've noticed the Azores seems to ridge into Europe more often & scuppering our Winters. Certainly a change in weather patterns. It's even there right now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I see your point. I've noticed the Azores seems to ridge into Europe more often & scuppering our Winters. Certainly a change in weather patterns. It's even there right now. 

I've mentioned before about the Azores HP having seemingly shifted N in mean position. It's also riding N&E with more ease.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, certainly SE europe has been the big winner in the last 30 years..

The thing with high pressure in Winter is an adjustment north of the prediction can mean bitterly cold for the UK.

Anyway, probably drifting O/T now..

I shouldn't worry about that, most posts from last winter onwards have been off topic unless specifically talking about the stratosphere in the 2017/18 winter because we haven't had a new thread for ages.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Ikast
  • Location: Ikast

Det er måske godt, at prognoserne er milde. Sidste år var stort set alle kolde og blokerede. Men jeg må indrømme ærligt, at jeg synes, at forholdene er meget bedre i år. Vi har ramt solminimumet med meget lav geomagnetisk aktivitet, NAO har været stabil negativ, troposfæren helt blokeret gennem året, og QBO ser ud til at vende mod den østlige fase. Endelig har vi en tripole i det nordlige Atlanterhav, der favoriserer en negativ NAO (også modsat de sidste 5-6 vintre) med varme omkring Grønland, især Vestgrønland såvel som koldere vand ved Newfoundland, der igen udvikler sig:

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif

Sidste år pegede SST klart på en positiv NAO med koldt vand i Grønland - og den tendens har vi haft siden de kolde vintre sluttede i 2013. Vi havde en vestlig QBO og El Nino. Så der er flere ting, der taler for en kold europæisk vinter i år, mener jeg. Sidste år blev de sandsynligvis lokket til at tro på de lovende prognoser. Vi har også udsigt til en neutral ENSO, som det straks ser ud. Dette betyder, at der sandsynligvis ikke vil være noget her, der betyder noget for Europa. Derefter åbnes det for muligheden for, at solenergimindet og det østlige QBO i kombination kan have en fælles og stærk virkning på blokering med Atlanterhavets tripole. Jeg er temmelig optimistisk for en kold vinter.

Edited by frederiksen90
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

RE the above post, yes that was my thinking. However look at that +PDO. It will presumably have the effect of HP developing there and sending cold down through Canada and across the States. All this will do is fire up the jet and promote HP downstream across Europe...which is exactly what the EC seasonal and GLOSEA are showing.

We really need that PDO to flip before we can get a good run of winters going IMO.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We really need that PDO to flip before we can get a good run of winters going IMO.

Totally agree.  I think the raging positive PDO is the main issue at the moment and I can’t see it changing anytime soon, given its current strength.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Its probably worth saying that we wont have a -QBO this winter, some folk were too excited. When you look at prior decay rates we are looking at neutral with spring and summer seeing the flip.

Fortunately if we look at the data then neutral standardised values have a good SSW hit rate.

But yeah, i am with those who view the neutral ENSO and +PDO as unfavourable.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Its probably worth saying that we wont have a -QBO this winter, some folk were too excited. When you look at prior decay rates we are looking at neutral with spring and summer seeing the flip.

Fortunately if we look at the data then neutral standardised values have a good SSW hit rate.

But yeah, i am with those who view the neutral ENSO and +PDO as unfavourable.

Hi SB , any thoughts on the Atlantic SSTS? And if they can negate the PDO?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Its probably worth saying that we wont have a -QBO this winter, some folk were too excited. When you look at prior decay rates we are looking at neutral with spring and summer seeing the flip.

Fortunately if we look at the data then neutral standardised values have a good SSW hit rate.

But yeah, i am with those who view the neutral ENSO and +PDO as unfavourable.

Not so worried about ENSO neutral, especially in the second half of winter.  -QBO will be descending though, will be past 30mb before Xmas.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

I've not been able to find any significant correlations with the CET in the UK or 500 hPa height patterns in the eastern N. Atlantic to western Eurasia sector.

However, there aren't many past examples of such extreme anomalous warmth covering such a vast swathe of the North Pacific to work with.

BUT this does mean we can't be sure that it'll drive a +NAO this winter, even if it is one of the only at all plausible explanations for the DJF updates from the GloSea5 and ECMWF long-range modelling.

It'd be just typical though, if it screwed us over when so much else was looking favourable. Using my own past propagation analysis for the QBO, we may even have that in a negative (easterly) state by mid-January, with a bit of luck.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not so worried about ENSO neutral, especially in the second half of winter.  -QBO will be descending though, will be past 30mb before Xmas.

I’m only a fan of neutral if moving towards weak Nino. A neutral event trending south will tend not to support significant tropical forcing which in the face of a positive PDO is not something I think will be of benefit.

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Hi SB , any thoughts on the Atlantic SSTS? And if they can negate the PDO?

I would tend to say the effect of the Atlantic is minimal and probably more relevant over Europe than the UK anyway although it is nominally supportive.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
2 hours ago, Singularity said:

I've not been able to find any significant correlations with the CET in the UK or 500 hPa height patterns in the eastern N. Atlantic to western Eurasia sector.

However, there aren't many past examples of such extreme anomalous warmth covering such a vast swathe of the North Pacific to work with.

BUT this does mean we can't be sure that it'll drive a +NAO this winter, even if it is one of the only at all plausible explanations for the DJF updates from the GloSea5 and ECMWF long-range modelling.

It'd be just typical though, if it screwed us over when so much else was looking favourable. Using my own past propagation analysis for the QBO, we may even have that in a negative (easterly) state by mid-January, with a bit of luck.

I read that there is a very low signal to noise ratio in seasonal models like ECMWF,I ve seen it on Amy Butlers twitter, this may mean it is very premature to take September update seriously

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
9 hours ago, jules216 said:

I read that there is a very low signal to noise ratio in seasonal models like ECMWF,I ve seen it on Amy Butlers twitter, this may mean it is very premature to take September update seriously

@balanced.

And as the jamtec previous update .that allowingly got flagged for it preferred cold early northern hemisphere prognosis..

It also balances pretty well on overscale!.ie 3/6 months shouting..so I do await it's updated format with eagerness..

And I'm not getting into the record breaking layer heating @the bottom pole...until we head a little further in!!!!!

 

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
13 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Signal to noise?

The low signal‐to‐noise ratio is predominantly a feature of the lower and middle troposphere and is not present in the stratosphere. The low signal‐to‐noise ratio is linked to low signal amplitude of the forecast systems in early winter. Future studies attempting to examine the signal‐to‐noise ratio should focus on the extent to which this early winter variability is predictable

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 hour ago, jules216 said:

The low signal‐to‐noise ratio is predominantly a feature of the lower and middle troposphere and is not present in the stratosphere. The low signal‐to‐noise ratio is linked to low signal amplitude of the forecast systems in early winter. Future studies attempting to examine the signal‐to‐noise ratio should focus on the extent to which this early winter variability is predictable

But what IS the noise and what ARE the signals?

sorry you may need to explain a bit more to duffers like me! 

Edited by JeffC
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Things are still pretty slack in the northern hemisphere regarding PV 

Screenshot_20190916-142712.png

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