Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

[Redbull165]

The Italian IL meteo weather site is seeing something similar to winter of 1984-1985 with stratosfere warming. Dont know if they are right, but at least they are very positive about this current event.

https://www.ilmeteo.it/notizie/meteo-atmosfera-impazzita-ci-si-prepara-ad-un-nuovo-1985-conseguenze-dirette-sullitalia-a-gennaio

If we look at the current heat flux on the top of the stratosfere its very amazing to see that its record breaking. If we compare years from 1978-2018. Warming in february 2018 was also very strong. But didnt see that coming. The weather models are having a major problem to see that propagation into the parts of troposfere, but each event is of course very unique.

 

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Cheers.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Redbull165

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, .jay said:

This sounds more like a criticism of the UK's deficient infrastructure and culture.  For example Inuit like the cold and snow, they don't merely tolerate it.

(But regarding that tweet: I thought it was quite funny actually.)

Well that could have something to do with where they live. Anyway I've no objection to the cold fraternity swanning off to Greenland or Canada every winter.

[Weather-history]

On 26/12/2018 at 10:11, sebastiaan1973 said:

This is a list of SSWs (with QBO-phawse) and nSSWs dSSWs . The latter is a downwelling. On this list since 1979 there are 13 dSSWs. Of them (and then you use the other list) 11 of them are with an eQBO. Seems to me that a wQBO is a big disadvantage. Just 1979 and 2009 are an exception.

Here's a mystery.

What exactly caused the January 1987 easterly blast?  And I don't mean high pressure over Scandi, I mean what caused this event to happen  because you look at that list and note the date of the SSW, 23rd January 1987. The cold blast had ended by then, the cold blast happened before the SSW. 

[lorenzo]

Granted, not for everyone @knocker, the main point I wanted to make was around the derogatory tone. Don't get why there is the need to attack 'weather forums' or folks interested or enthused about weather? Anyway.. GEOS view of the forthcoming split at Day 10 - 240 hrs, across the levels.

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Weather-history]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

 It severely impacted millions of peoples lives and it went on for weeks.

 

So did summer 1976 by the way, this is not a dig at you knocker,  but at the double standards of some people who preach the above because it suits them in one set of circumstances they don't like it but convenienly forget it when it does suit them eg saying winter 1962-63 was awful had enormous consequences because they hate cold etc but praising how wonderful and perfect summer 1976 was because they love heat. well summer 1976 had big consequences as well.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Weather-history

[Interitus]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Here's a mystery.

What exactly caused the January 1987 easterly blast?  And I don't mean high pressure over Scandi, I mean what caused this event to happen  because you look at that list and note the date of the SSW, 23rd January 1987. The cold blast had ended by then, the cold blast happened before the SSW. 

Yes, it was high level blocking from a large anticyclonic wave break to the north of the UK which caused the cold blast and was implicated in the ensuing SSW -

as posted upthread

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88772-stratosphere-temperature-watch-201718/?page=45&tab=comments#comment-3918352

 

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well that could have something to do with where they live. Anyway I've no objection to the cold fraternity swanning off to Greenland or Canada every winter.

 

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

So did summer 1976 by the way, this is not a dig at you knocker,  but at the double standards of some people who preach the above because it suits them in one set of circumstances they don't like it but convenienly forget it when it does suit them eg saying winter 1962-63 was awful had enormous consequences because they hate cold etc but praising how wonderful and perfect summer 1976 was because they love heat. well summer 1976 had big consequences as well.

Agreed.. 

And whose asking for a 1963 again anyway?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

23 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well that could have something to do with where they live. Anyway I've no objection to the cold fraternity swanning off to Greenland or Canada every winter.

I've no objection to you swanning off to hot places either.

[Badgers01]

28 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

He seems to be always having sly digs...

seems a fair comment really - with the odd exception most on here are armchair experts at best. 

[Paul]

Can we steer this back to the stratosphere please, plenty of other places to chat more generally about tweets and the like. 

[Interitus]

This morning's GFS Op has a deeper reversal starting a full 24 hours before the parallel FV3, a noticeable difference at 4-5 days but both ending at day 10 -

 

[Badgers01]

13 minutes ago, Interitus said:

This morning's GFS Op has a deeper reversal starting a full 24 hours before the parallel FV3, a noticeable difference at 4-5 days but both ending at day 10 -

 

so GFS op goes from hero to zero to hero !!

[Summer Sun]

 

[sebastiaan1973]

Simon Lee picked up the article I spoke over 

https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Selliso]

16 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Simon Lee picked up the article I spoke over 

https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Great article! Thanks for posting.

[WINTRY WALES]

9 minutes ago, Selliso said:

Great article! Thanks for posting.

So this SSW more likely not to affect our troposphere ....hope this article is wrong!!

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, .jay said:

Dunno, it seems that the paper is maybe a timely warning.  But are we only latching onto this because current NWP output is so boring?  Is it a case of 'find the paper to match the mood,' rather than vice versa?

It would be interesting to know the statistical significance of their conclusions drawn from observations. It's been published so can't be terrible. (Remember OPI?)   It would also be interesting to know some details of their numerical simulations, because the MetO (GLOSEA?) seem to expect an effect.  Whether GLOSEA matches Karpechko's simulation results, I don't know.  Maybe someone else can help.

One would expect Fawkes knows what glosea is seeing....... however, the Exeter long ranger won’t remove the two week downwelling from its output. (Unless it’s MJO led) 

[Singularity]

As far as I can see, GFS is pretty isolated in having the reversal completely fail to propagate downward, with the NAM actually going more positive in the lower stratosphere.

GOES-5 for example has a steady downward propagation and no +NAM development at all.

I've seen little evidence to justify taking GFS over other modelling strat-wise. Less sure about FV3 though; it would be a strange move if it didn't have the stratosphere resolution brought up to par with the likes of ECM.

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, WINTRY WALES said:

So this SSW more likely not to affect our troposphere ....hope this article is wrong!!

It doesn't say that.

[Mucka]

The PV is the T1000 of nature - no matter how much you batter it and scatter its parts it will always reform.

[Redbull165]

Singularity very impressive post. I agree with you. What I find also amazing is that the GLOSEA based ECMWF seasonal model has hinted a dominant high-pressure system over Atlantic, starting in January. It doesnt mean that this will come true, but what I am saying that the ECMWF seasonal model has done a very good job for now. Much better than seasonal CFS which has a warm-bias. I usually prefer ECMWF model over GFS if we look at the stratosfere. But in some cases GFS does win over ECMWF when we analyse the situation in the troposfere.

Below is a pioneer model (taken from Weatherbell). It was updated on the 1.12.2018, and it shows us the predicted 500 hPa anomalies for J,F,M 2019.

 

 

[Weather-history]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One would expect Fawkes knows what glosea is seeing....... however, the Exeter long ranger won’t remove the two week downwelling from its output. (Unless it’s MJO led) 

Does Chris Fawkes work for the Met Office or Meteogroup now? 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Does Chris Fawkes work for the Met Office or Meteogroup now? 

Meteogroup but I’m sure they receive glosea data ....fergie has referenced it and he also works for the beeb .....

[Gael_Force]

31 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I've seen little evidence to justify taking GFS over other modelling strat-wise. Less sure about FV3 though; it would be a strange move if it didn't have the stratosphere resolution brought up to par with the likes of ECM.

I wondered about the resolution as there is so much more definition in the FV3 compared to current GFS. CF the +240 hour charts from current run.