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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest EC-stratosphere 

10ta_f168_bg.png.c7bfd3c12322ceb99d6ff6c277b00e75.png

Such a huge difference with the other models... 

Where did you get that from btw? 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Phew. The notion of the 1000mb AO state mattering would have conflicted with exiting understanding that if anything a positive AO is more typical at that level at the time of peak reversal above. Obliteration of that by the downwelling negative NAM is then what distributes deep cold to the mid-latitudes. When there’s already a neg AO the downwelling cold air distribution tends to be more a case of shifting about whatever deep cold pools are already in place across the polar continental regions.

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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

You think ?  It’s wider by day 10 

Come on post it, in 7 hours we can all see the Berlin charts anyway 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You think ?  It’s wider by day 10 

Wow thats good news Blue..

Guess if its right we gotta be prep'd for some interesting charts down the line..(whenever that will be)?.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Huge split!!

 

One certainty at the moment is that one of the models will have a lot of egg on their face!!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
7 minutes ago, Don said:

One certainty at the moment is that one of the models will have a lot of egg on their face!!

My bet it is the GFS  I can't believe there isn't an egg emoji but there isn't so we will make do with this, out of season too!

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

My bet it is the GFS  I can't believe there isn't an egg emoji but there isn't so we will make do with this, out of season too!

Well, I hope it is the GFS!

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

 

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

My bet it is the GFS  I can't believe there isn't an egg emoji but there isn't so we will make do with this, out of season too!

Yes I agree, but ain’t all the Models struggling with this SSW, I’m no expert and please advise if I’m wrong in anyway, but wouldn’t it be right by saying that it takes a few weeks before the changes due to the SSW start showing/happening, so how can anything past 144h be taken at all seriously.....if I’m wrong it’s eggs all round

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Wow!!

What a chart for coldies!!

The daily ecm strat charts taken from the berlin site show this developing nicely on yesterday's data.

211618732_ecmwf10f240(1).thumb.gif.012f12bcd67a578aaaa17103c3655d05.gif

That was the day 10 forecast so it's good to see some consistency on this with the latest charts posted above.

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

 

Yes I agree, but ain’t all the Models struggling with this SSW, I’m no expert and please advise if I’m wrong in anyway, but wouldn’t it be right by saying that it takes a few weeks before the changes due to the SSW start showing/happening, so how can anything past 144h be taken at all seriously.....if I’m wrong it’s eggs all round

Yes they are struggling, as never before in my opinion, so don't believe the op runs after T144, until the SSW has actually happened, now progged 28-30 Dec, then watch for the downwelling influencing the charts of the op runs as a signal in some of the runs, GFS and FV3 first, as they go out to 16 days, then ECM at 10 days out.  Then snow ❄️ hopefully!

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

npsh500.216.png

The more I look at this chart, the more I wonder if ECM is in fact modelling the 'flushing down' of positive zonal anomalies from the stratosphere for the 7-9 day range, before day 10 sees the first signs of the negative NAM making it down to turn the AO that way (very slight at that stage; lobes moving apart a little).

You see, we now have quite a number of EPS members taking the MJO into phase 6 by then, which coupled with rising AAM should correspond to a bit more amplification across the mid-Atlantic than what the model keeps on producing. So it could be that it's those increased zonal winds coming up against the tropically driven developments.

Now imagine how things ought to unfold as we see both a transition to a negative AO and the MJO moving further through P6 and on into P7, favouring an increasingly higher latitude position to ridging in the N. Atlantic sector... .

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted

Anyone know anywhere else to view up to date EC strat charts other than Berlin?

My iPad doesn’t display the charts properly, in that I can’t scroll down. It would be good at least to see the latest charts, as I look out of the window at the snow slowly being eaten away by the rain here in the Alps. 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
10 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Anyone know anywhere else to view up to date EC strat charts other than Berlin?

My iPad doesn’t display the charts properly, in that I can’t scroll down. It would be good at least to see the latest charts, as I look out of the window at the snow slowly being eaten away by the rain here in the Alps. 

It’s annoying that you can’t scroll through any more unless you’re on a pc 

ec is split down to 50hpa now by day 10 .....

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC maintains the split vortex looking at the image MH has posted..

GFS slowly coming round ?

GFS operational is better than yesterday for sure. The parallel is still not interested though.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, karyo said:

GFS operational is better than yesterday for sure. The parallel is still not interested though.

Yep, hoping EC is the daddy here, looks mighty amazing..

(As Blue has posted above)..

Edited by northwestsnow
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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted

Area over NE Russia gone above freezing at 10hpa...

 

Screenshot_20181223-092826.png

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