Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

[sundog]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

Once again the CFS models paint a clear picture for the stratosphere & continue to be very very interesting for the period November & December with a very subdued vortex & A late November Warming event... 

Not many November/December Warming years to choose from In the archives ( 1962 springs to mind )

A cold Xmas very possible i presume if that where to happen.

[SMU]

It would certainly be a far cry from the norm vortex wise-

[sebastiaan1973]

August -20,4 QBO.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

August -20,4 QBO.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

How fast can it rise? Can we still have negative values by December or is that too much to ask?

[SMU]

Positive through November @10mb as the westerly downwells however an easterly may cling on later at lower levels (50) till later through December...

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Positive through November @10mb as the westerly downwells however an easterly may cling on later at lower levels (50) till later through December...

Signing in for winter as you would say!   Im thinking that the late autumn / early winter could be a crucial timeframe this winter, not because we cant get blocking in Jan but I feel as the wQBO downwells, we might struggle to get an SSW later on as although solar min is usually more conducive overall, statistically full on reversals in mid winter are rare with a solar min wQBO combi so we might be relying on the trop being favourable to resist any forcing from up top, half of me would have been hoping for the earlier wQBO so that next year the eQBO would be in full swing earlier as the brutal combination of solar min / eQBO and possible nino would almost certainly mean a belter next year, I still am quite optimistic this year overall though.

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest EC-seasonal is out. Autumn will be on the warm side. Winter 2019 will be colder than average. Especially januar.

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/

[Paul_1978]

On 05/09/2018 at 18:46, feb1991blizzard said:

Signing in for winter as you would say!   Im thinking that the late autumn / early winter could be a crucial timeframe this winter, not because we cant get blocking in Jan but I feel as the wQBO downwells, we might struggle to get an SSW later on as although solar min is usually more conducive overall, statistically full on reversals in mid winter are rare with a solar min wQBO combi so we might be relying on the trop being favourable to resist any forcing from up top, half of me would have been hoping for the earlier wQBO so that next year the eQBO would be in full swing earlier as the brutal combination of solar min / eQBO and possible nino would almost certainly mean a belter next year, I still am quite optimistic this year overall though.

Are we looking at an easterly QBO this winter, or westerly?

[tcc]

5 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Are we looking at an easterly QBO this winter, or westerly?

As Steve says, looks to be in transistion, so starting off eQBO then during Jan(?) turns wQBO

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Are we looking at an easterly QBO this winter, or westerly?

A Westerly eventually but its still Easterly at the moment, the slower that the Westerly downwells and less strong that it is initially may be better for getting blocking.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, tcc said:

As Steve says, looks to be in transistion, so starting off eQBO then during Jan(?) turns wQBO

It might be a bit sooner than Jan, its already been going for 14 months.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

[Paul_1978]

Cheers guys. I think it was Steve's use of the word "positive" (I read it as 'Positive QBO) that threw me! 

[knocker]

 

Edited September 11, 2018 by knocker

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest Glosea5 is out.

 

[jules216]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest Glosea5 is out.

 

That is a big step from zonal cyclonic August update to a siberian anticyclone,potentially very interesting undercut scenarios and winter wonderland on Alps and Carpathian mountians

[tcc]

That's similar to what the ECM Seasonal is showing for the winter months, lots of northerly blocking!

[Yarmy]

Well, I'd say it's nothing to write home about with a positive height anomaly over mainland Europe and a negative anomaly over the North Atlantic:

NDJ 

 

But it's so different to the previous update that it's hard to draw any conclusions:

NDJ from the Aug Update

 

The ECM Seasonal update should be available on the EU Copernicus site tomorrow from noon to us plebs. However, judging by some of the comments elsewhere from those who have seen it already, it paints a more encouraging picture.

[shaky]

Those are 2 of the best updates ive seen for a number of years for the following winter!!normally we got very strong heights to the south of us and low heights to the north!!very encouraging indeed!!amazing how quickly the ecm update has changed from the last month!just shows how futile it is!!

Edited September 12, 2018 by shaky

[sundog]

Someone put this up on an Irish weather forum. I think it's the ECM seasonal update. Looks very nice.

Edited September 12, 2018 by sundog

[tcc]

Yeah Gav has done a little explanation on the new ECM Seasonal: https://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html

[Yarmy]

47 minutes ago, sundog said:

Someone put this up on an Irish weather forum. I think it's the ECM seasonal update. Looks very nice.

Now that is more like it. 

 

[sebastiaan1973]

For EC-seasonal you can take a look over here:

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/

This page shows temperature and rainfall anomalies that are expected to prevail over European and Mediterranean areas during the next 7 months. This service started in June 2013; the set of 7 months shown will be updated monthly during the fire season. Normally within the first week of each month a forecast for the next 2 months will be made available.

The maps are based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Seasonal Forecasting System named S4 (System 4) and are provided to EFFIS users as experimental products. S4 anomalies of temperature and rainfall are estimated from the mean deviation of the seasonal forecast from the model climate. The maps highlight the areas which are expected to be colder/warmer and dryer/wetter (than normal) over Europe and Mediterranean countries, with an obvious linkage to potentially higher forest fire danger.

[Yarmy]

41 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

For EC-seasonal you can take a look over here:

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/

This page shows temperature and rainfall anomalies that are expected to prevail over European and Mediterranean areas during the next 7 months. This service started in June 2013; the set of 7 months shown will be updated monthly during the fire season. Normally within the first week of each month a forecast for the next 2 months will be made available.

The maps are based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Seasonal Forecasting System named S4 (System 4) and are provided to EFFIS users as experimental products. S4 anomalies of temperature and rainfall are estimated from the mean deviation of the seasonal forecast from the model climate. The maps highlight the areas which are expected to be colder/warmer and dryer/wetter (than normal) over Europe and Mediterranean countries, with an obvious linkage to potentially higher forest fire danger.

Yeah, I have that link, but it doesn't have the NH geopot height anomalies which are the charts I look for. I've only found those on Copernicus and they don't update until the 13th.

Edit: This is the link that will update tomorrow (hopefully):

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/

Edited September 12, 2018 by Yarmy

[BruenSryan]

5 hours ago, sundog said:

Someone put this up on an Irish weather forum. I think it's the ECM seasonal update. Looks very nice.

I wonder who that was. Nice to see you read my posts on other sources Sundog! 

But seriously, a mad update from the ECM (I thought last month's was epic enough for cold and snow!) with a lot of blocking especially during December and January on this September update.

I'd like to point out a comparison between the ECM update of November 2017 (from Gav's Weather vid) for Winter 2017-18 vs what actually happened.

Uncanny resemblance here. Displaced Azores High. Troughing through UK/Ireland into Europe. Blocking to the north and northeast of Europe. You'll never get a complete perfect match but I think this was amazing for a long range forecast. Will see how the ECM fares this Winter. Weak Polar Vortex as suggested by the CFS and its ensembles would suggest the possibility of what the latest ECM long range update shows.

[Allseasons-Si]

It's that time of the year again when the jma pv chart gets into it's winter mode

I would like to see something like this although i think it may happen a tad sooner,just a hunch.

 

 

Edited September 12, 2018 by Allseasons-si