SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[staplehurst]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Hi Dan, been a while since we last saw you on the local news.  

Yeah, shifts are very infrequent - tend to average 1 per month at the moment. Last one was early November, next one 27th December

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, DonnaThw said:

Is Monday a wash out or a white out

Looking a washout for you.  

[mark_otbc]

What do you think the likelihood is of a shift eastwards? I'm in Norwich which looks to be right on the edge of snow based on all charts at the moment - haven't had decent snowfall here in years!

[SMU]

19 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Euro4 doing the same as all the other models, that's a big jump south with the sub-zero DPs. I'm starting to think the Met Office warning needs extending into Bucks/Herts/Beds.

Remember still 18 hours to go... 3 runs of the models !

[danm]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Euro4 doing the same as all the other models, that's a big jump south with the sub-zero DPs. I'm starting to think the Met Office warning needs extending into Bucks/Herts/Beds.

What do we think about Essex? I’m just near the Greater London/Essex border so hoping we might be on the right side of marginal!

[Donna3397]

3 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Thanks Nick.

 

I am on the end of the arrow...still expecting just rain!

I'm just around the bend from there

Edited December 9, 2017 by DonnaThw

[Spikey M]

Let’s just say I’m not bothering to get the shovel out of the shed.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember still 18 hours to go... 3 runs of the models !

18 hours? It's already moving into South-West England?

[Methuselah]

I thought I was all in favour of wishing the slider southwards. Now though, I'm not so sure: what good will it be should it hit the Algarve!

Edited December 9, 2017 by Ed Stone

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 minutes ago, mark_otbc said:

What do you think the likelihood is of a shift eastwards? I'm in Norwich which looks to be right on the edge of snow based on all charts at the moment - haven't had decent snowfall here in years!

I was now going to ask the same question as I'm a few miles SW of you!

[Justin Miller]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember still 18 hours to go... 3 runs of the models !

To be honest there’s 12 if that until the band of precipitation reaches all counties

[Mark wheeler]

Many may remember when we were forecast heavy snow from a slider and then about 24 hours before the event we ended up being dry and the Channel Islands got it instead , well maybe and I know it’s a massive long shot we might get some luck this time . I think it was this occasion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-jersey-21758938/snow-causes-travel-chaos-for-channel-islands

Edited December 9, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[Neilsouth]

Hey all I moved house last year and now living towards Hythe...

Currently at 232ft! - 5 mins drive up the road and it's about 620ft, this is in south east kent   

Wonder if i'll get snowfall

[Met4Cast]

Euro4 is annoyingly close

 

That's all High-Res models shifting South by quite a few miles.. If the 18z continues that trend then London and North Kent could be in.. 

Edited December 9, 2017 by Danny*

[James Oliver]

The showers that are expected to move north out of the channel before the main system arrives, could they be wintry initially? Considering its 0.9'c here currently.

[Staffordshire]

Slipping from our fingers here in Midlands (north of Brum), which is extremely painful to see. Think you guys could very well be in with a shot come tomorrow morning. Good luck all.

[Nick L]

EC brings decent snow accumulations into Beds/Bucks/Herts. A good southward shift.

[mark_otbc]

2 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Euro4 is annoyingly close

 

That's all High-Res models shifting South by quite a few miles.. If the 18z continues that trend then London and North Kent could be in.. 

This one is looking much better for Norfolk! We tend to only get decent snowfall with Easterlies and that seems to be something we've not had in years, so I'm really hoping it sticks it out and we can see some decent snow tomorrow.

0deg and hasn't been above 1.5deg all day here, Norwich city centre!

[bluearmy]

Just now, Nick L said:

EC brings decent snow accumulations into Beds/Bucks/Herts. A good southward shift.

To be fair it's been showing accumulations down to south Herts for the past couple runs 

[Daniel*]

Just now, Nick L said:

EC brings decent snow accumulations into Beds/Bucks/Herts. A good southward shift.

Another little shift please! This is looking too close to call for us a tiny bit south of the M4 corridor. 

[Nick L]

Just now, bluearmy said:

To be fair it's been showing accumulations down to south Herts for the past couple runs 

It depends on what algorithm is used really. Either way, the line for snow accumulations on ours was barely into N Bucks this morning, now I'm into 10cm (not that it will be that much).

[saint]

Just now, bluearmy said:

To be fair it's been showing accumulations down to south Herts for the past couple runs 

Sounds like we could be getting some snow here, eh Bluearmy?

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

EC brings decent snow accumulations into Beds/Bucks/Herts. A good southward shift.

Hi Nick, what are the totals for these areas generally speaking? 

[Nick L]

Just now, PerfectStorm said:

Hi Nick, what are the totals for these areas generally speaking? 

They're showing 10-15cm BUT they tend to overegg it. Either way, it was showing zilch earlier

[snowking]

Well then, what do we have here:

ECMWF with a similar southward shift

Edited December 9, 2017 by snowking