Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    2 minutes ago, Danny* said:

    Bare in mind the Met Office warnings are disruption based, you could see snow falling outside of the warning zones, it's just unlikely to settle and thus, wont be disruptive hence no warning

    Fair point but it doesn't look too great for any kind of snow, falling or otherwise, S of the warning area. There have been quite a few shifts in the snow zone though, so tomorrow could show something different? As for Monday....looks like some severe weather for many of us.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 6.1k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Merry Xmas, To all on the South East thread. Didn't think I'd still be here, being able to celebrate Christmas, after suffering a brain haemorrhage/stroke, in September 2015. But fortunately, due

    Snowline has moved back across the water now so north kent / Surrey etc back in the fray - great wrap around as well heavy snow here in Eltham -1cm , wifey just text 0.2c in NAG with heavy snow a

    It is not showing 20cm for Reading whatsoever! I see he's a Reading student, I think he's trying to convince himself...

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

    Fair point but it doesn't look too great for any kind of snow, falling or otherwise, S of the warning area. There have been quite a few shifts in the snow zone though, so tomorrow could show something different? As for Monday....looks like some severe weather for many of us.

    I think London/N Kent will see some snow falling on the leading edge but it'll likely turn to rain fairly quickly. 

    This cold spell doesn't look very exciting for those South of the M4. Hopefully the signals the heights to our NE materialise later in the month/January and we get some classic Easterly streamers across the region.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    The southern extent of the snowfall is tauntingly close to London, all it takes is a minor S adjustment, very heavy precipitation high risk but high reward. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    1 minute ago, Danny* said:

    I think London/N Kent will see some snow falling on the leading edge but it'll likely turn to rain fairly quickly. 

    This cold spell doesn't look very exciting for those South of the M4. Hopefully the signals the heights to our NE materialise later in the month/January and we get some classic Easterly streamers across the region.

    That M4 really is a horrible motorway! I'll be surprised to see any snow in my area on Sunday but I live on a hill so there's a small chance lol. Monday may well be an interesting day for many of us, though. 

    Agree with you about heights to the NE, a proper Scandi high with ice days, showery troughs and a Channel low....classic synoptics for the SE. This winter could be a memorable one.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

    Haven't posted in a while - and I'm too busy to give it a real go. But I would say that, speaking from an IMBY POV, Cambs is unlikely to see any significant accumulations. Meto warning almost hand in glove with ARPEGE - which is far closer to GFS than ECM. Won't take very many last minute changes (with a 50 mile correction southwards and eastwards for example) for parts of our county to get a serious snowfall, but on the basis of the current forecast I suggest expect little or nothing to avoid disappointment. The issue is the wrapping of the low as it spins NNW while travelling Eastwards across the UK; it spurts warmer uppers into our region at just the worst moment, meaning that the system may have frontal and back-edge snow while the bulk is rain for most in central East Anglia. Central midlands, perhaps even East Midlands if the system moves northwards enough, could get 4-6inches widely I suspect. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    Flooding and potential wind damage could well be a story for those South of London.

    Gusts predicted between 60mph and 70mph on Sunday and Monday

    Rainfall predictions in a two hour window in the early hours of Monday have 2 inches of rain or more falling in 2 hours! (In excess of 50mm)

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    Would love someone to produce a document on why the M4 area almost always seems to be the rough line between snow & rain.

    It really has it in for us lot doesn't it.

    Do the weather systems constantly take the same track?

    Is it the modification in terms of temps and dews from the channel on a Southerly draw?

    Genuinely interested on the reasons behind the M4 areas ability to act as a heat shield and turn the snow to rain.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    :bomb: 

    nmmuk-1-72-0.png?08-12nmmuk-18-72-0.png?08-12 

    In all seriousness, highlights how marginal it is. Will be a fine line between getting pasted and seeing sleet / cold rain, further north and west you are the better (thats if you see any precipitation!) 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton
    4 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

    :bomb: 

    nmmuk-1-72-0.png?08-12nmmuk-18-72-0.png?08-12 

    In all seriousness, highlights how marginal it is. Will be a fine line between getting pasted and seeing sleet / cold rain, further north and west you are the better (thats if you see any precipitation!) 

    That's the closest i've seen it to Brighton 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
    5 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

    :bomb: 

    nmmuk-1-72-0.png?08-12nmmuk-18-72-0.png?08-12 

    In all seriousness, highlights how marginal it is. Will be a fine line between getting pasted and seeing sleet / cold rain, further north and west you are the better (thats if you see any precipitation!) 

    Would love to know how that NMM PPN chart comes to the conclusion the likes of the IOW will be under 10mm p/h PPN rates of SNOW with DP's around 3-4c.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
  • Weather Preferences: snow, storms or both at same time..
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
    1 minute ago, Alpine glow said:

    That's the closest i've seen it to Brighton 

    Yeah, if that's correct then should be amazing on the downs around the Beacon or devils dyke :)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    The southern extent of the snowfall is tauntingly close to London, all it takes is a minor S adjustment, very heavy precipitation high risk but high reward. 

    Some output is putting much of our region in a snow zone. I'm sceptical/realistic/negative but happy to be wrong.

    IMG_4950.GIF

    IMG_4951.PNG

    IMG_4952.PNG

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
    2 minutes ago, ITSY said:

    Haven't posted in a while - and I'm too busy to give it a real go. But I would say that, speaking from an IMBY POV, Cambs is unlikely to see any significant accumulations. Meto warning almost hand in glove with ARPEGE - which is far closer to GFS than ECM. Won't take very many last minute changes (with a 50 mile correction southwards and eastwards for example) for parts of our county to get a serious snowfall, but on the basis of the current forecast I suggest expect little or nothing to avoid disappointment. The issue is the wrapping of the low as it spins NNW while travelling Eastwards across the UK; it spurts warmer uppers into our region at just the worst moment, meaning that the system may have frontal and back-edge snow while the bulk is rain for most in central East Anglia. Central midlands, perhaps even East Midlands if the system moves northwards enough, could get 4-6inches widely I suspect. 

    Currently met Office showing Heavy snow for Peterborough and St ives on Sunday from 6am through to 6pm so I would expect accumulations.

    The Met Office have a highly accurate short range model https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2012/ukv So I would expect that at this range they have a good handle on likeleyhood and impact of any snow hence the move to an amber warning and this is reflected in the Chief Forecasters text "There is increasing certainty in the track and location of the heaviest snow."

    The attached although related to Birmingham will be similar to other councils and highlights the impact of a weather warning given out by the Met Office

    http://www.birminghamprepared.gov.uk/advice/specific-risks/met-office-severe-weather-warnings/

    Currently East OF England is at a level 3 cold weather alert

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

    Given all of the above and its implications and consequences I have faith at this range that the Met Office have the best handle on the disruption that is likely to occur in Cambs

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
    3 minutes ago, Southender said:

    Would love to know how that NMM PPN chart comes to the conclusion the likes of the IOW will be under 10mm p/h PPN rates of SNOW with DP's around 3-4c.

    Dewpoints are generally between 0 and 1c, and heavier precipitation will bring that down a little. 

    Edited by Mark Bayley
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
    2 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

    Currently met Office showing Heavy snow for Peterborough and St ives on Sunday from 6am through to 6pm so I would expect accumulations.

    The Met Office have a highly accurate short range model https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2012/ukv So I would expect that at this range they have a good handle on likeleyhood and impact of any snow hence the move to an amber warning and this is reflected in the Chief Forecasters text "There is increasing certainty in the track and location of the heaviest snow."

    The attached although related to Birmingham will be similar to other councils and highlights the impact of a weather warning given out by the Met Office

    http://www.birminghamprepared.gov.uk/advice/specific-risks/met-office-severe-weather-warnings/

    Currently East OF England is at a level 3 cold weather alert

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

    Given all of the above and its implications and consequences I have faith at this range that the Met Office have the best handle on the disruption that is likely to occur in Cambs

    Don't doubt they have a better handle than I do. Just making my own observations on an internet forum. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I don't want to generate too much unfettered maniacal excitement - but, there are anvils on the horizon over the North Sea!:yahoo::D

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    9 minutes ago, Alpine glow said:

    That's the closest i've seen it to Brighton 

    the current warnings are all for sunday. nothing mentioned yet for monday but the winds look more intense- 

    ukgust-1.thumb.png.20c8056fd84449567780b74770ce95c5.png

    ukgust.thumb.png.48123a44a621c5fda40117a6a45fef68.png

    and then there's this-

    prectypeuktopo-14.thumb.png.7c8e5da9089fb44ac876bfcf97eb3644.png

    could well be that us lot in soggy sussex join in the fun and games as well! :D

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    I'm just out of the amber doesn't mean it's a dead cert ofc, but it's only Friday. If I still see snow symbols and my warning hasn't gone saturday night then I shall be on the bailey's.

    :cold-emoji:

    Still a case of pick nicer looking model run:closedeyes::ball-santa-emoji:

    Edited by Dami
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    Let's hope this is way wide of the mark.

    2-3" of rain quite widely for our region over the course of Sunday and Monday.

    http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017120806/78-777.GIF?08-6

    If only that was snow....

    Shropshire and parts of the Midlands will have a foot by close of play Monday.

    Edited by Southender
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I don't want to generate too much unfettered maniacal excitement - but, there are anvils on the horizon over the North Sea!:yahoo::D

    be careful out there....

    coyote-2-2.thumb.jpg.3fe4cbbb8b18c61cd9e4f468698a22f5.jpg

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    3 minutes ago, Dami said:

    I'm just out of the amber doesn't mean it's a dead cert ofc, but it's only Friday. If I still see snow symbols and my warning hasn't gone saturday night then I shall be on the bailey's.

    :cold-emoji:

    Still a case of pick nicer looking model run:closedeyes::ball-santa-emoji:

    At the moment, your area is the most likely in the whole of the SE region to get heavy, disruptive snowfall. Post some pics, please, if that happens :)

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire

    Looking at this mornings charts - anyone that says we are in for a milder spell next week should think again, its going to be a cold week - snow or no snow, with 0 Degree Isotherm levels primarily negative. Some charts do point to a slightly milder spell towards Christmas however - either wet mild or a HP (the preferred scenario). 

    Regarding the snow line on Sunday - everyone should know the charts (particularly GFS) generally always struggle to model the displacement of the cold air - as it is hard to shift. My gut feel, is anywhere from a Line from West Suffolk/South Cambs to Herts/Northampton etc will be right on the border line for significant snowfall. This could well be further north, or less likely - could be further south. If you get lucky it will be pay day - 10cm+ of snow which isn't likely to go anywhere fast, coupled with the potential for a further 10cm+ on Monday along with gale force winds. It has the makings of a really iconic snow fall event. 

    Where you are in regards to that boundary though is make or break - a lot of people (including myself!!) should be braced for major disappointment come the end of the day Sunday... when all you see is wet puddles outside. Although there is an extremely low chance of this changing, I can fairly confidently say that it looks as though London/The South East are rain bound for both Sunday & Monday as it stands (but that could come back to bite me!).

    Best word of advise for our part of the World - expect rain, anything more than that will be a bonus ! 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
    2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    be careful out there....

    coyote-2-2.thumb.jpg.3fe4cbbb8b18c61cd9e4f468698a22f5.jpg

    That is what came to my mind :D. TBH, I prefer snow ...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wokingham
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny summers and snowy winters
  • Location: Wokingham
    1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

    it'll be rain in London, i can feel it in my trousers:cc_confused:

    30mm?? ;-)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Settled, dry spell continues as daytime temperatures edge up a degree or so

      The risk of frost continues and it is chilly out of the sunshine but the fine, dry spell continues this week as the temperatures creep up, closer to average rather than below as they have been. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      2021 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season Outlook

      Samual Hayes explores the trends and the main influencing factors as the Arctic Sea Ice Melt season for 2021 gets underway. Read the full article

      BornFromTheVoid
      BornFromTheVoid
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...