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SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

    It’s blowing a gale y’all 

    Thank heavens I stuffed my face earlier - has weighed me down!

     

     

    Roll on the summer y’all 

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    Merry Xmas, To all on the South East thread. Didn't think I'd still be here, being able to celebrate Christmas, after suffering a brain haemorrhage/stroke, in September 2015. But fortunately, due

    Snowline has moved back across the water now so north kent / Surrey etc back in the fray - great wrap around as well heavy snow here in Eltham -1cm , wifey just text 0.2c in NAG with heavy snow a

    It is not showing 20cm for Reading whatsoever! I see he's a Reading student, I think he's trying to convince himself...

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    56 mph top gust, however I think a stronger one may have just gone through by sound. Will not be surprised to see winds in the 70s during the squall. Must be a big temp gradient between the air mass.

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    Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe East
  • Location: High Wycombe East
    Just now, alexisj9 said:

    56 mph top gust, however I think a stronger one may have just gone through by sound. Will not be surprised to see winds in the 70s during the squall. Must be a big temp gradient between the air mass.

    We certainly saw temps fall away as the squall came though.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    1 minute ago, Team Squirrel said:

    We certainly saw temps fall away as the squall came though.

    Temp is droppng in front of it here down to 6.2. Mind you the high was only 8.8.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    5 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

    blowing a gale outside here now, decided to watch eastenders for the first time in years for want of anything else to do, how depressing was that?

    Very, and the ending was unexpected.

    Highest gust now 62mph.

    Edited by alexisj9
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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey
  • Location: Purley, Surrey
    7 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

    blowing a gale outside here now, decided to watch eastenders for the first time in years for want of anything else to do, how depressing was that?

    me too. First time I've seen it since Janine was in it. Must be about 10 years. Sad to see the two girls go like that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    17 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

    blowing a gale outside here now, decided to watch eastenders for the first time in years for want of anything else to do, how depressing was that?

    Aye anything to generate discussion for the ratings, what a happy Christmas I’ve not watched it in years. I watched tonight’s took me back to when Bradley jumped off Max’s long dead son, seems the kids have something with high up places, I don’t think they’re dead maybe the older one is. Doubt you watched it but the sisters getting in a tangle drowning in the bottom of the pool was hard to watch. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
    6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Aye anything to generate discussion for the ratings, what a happy Christmas I’ve not watched it in years. I watched tonight’s took me back to when Bradley jumped off Max’s long dead son, seems the kids have something with high up places, I don’t think they’re dead maybe the older one is. Doubt you watched it but the sisters getting in a tangle drowning in the bottom of the pool was hard to watch. 

    no, didn't see that, i think the last time i saw it, den and angie were still in it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Most of the region by the looks of things will see some falling snow now, question is where will it settle and who will hit the jackpot. My guess now would be somewhere like Oxford perhaps a touch further south. Surrey hills also if things stay the same. 

    Anywhere with elevation should at least see some kind of accumulated snow. Lower levels maybe temporary in heavier bursts 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    It just sucked it down, I assume that was the squall line passing through very gusty.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    Just looked at the radar we inform a wild and wet night it looks  like

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    Just now, tinybill said:

    Just looked at the radar we inform a wild and wet night it looks  like

    Think the wind will die down after the squall bit. It swings round to a westerly then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

    Merry Christmas Everyone!! 

    Hope we see some snow ... Certainly add some atmosphere to the festivities - nice to see us in with a fighting chance for once ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Sweet pot seems to be just west of London for now on the Met Office site, lots of heavy snow symbols showing up around Oxfordshire & Bucks, Chilterns should do well. London is forecast sleet though, but wet snow could still settle if its heavy enough, guess a lot of slush like the other week could be on the cards.

    Yh really windy, thought a big tree was going to fall on me earlier on this evening.:unsure2:

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    49 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    what an abomination of a christmas weather wise:sorry:

    Vile!:(

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    morning  all have a mery xmas and  new year ralking of weather all i can say its looking interesting  to say theleast!!!!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Morning Gang a Merry Christmas to all.

     

    Still massive differences this morning on all the high res models I have rated them out of 10 for our region based upon the most likely showing snow. 10 heavy snow fall, 1 nothing but rain.

    Lets get the bad out the way first 

    HIRLAM 2/10 

    overview_032.jpg?2017122600overview_033.jpg?2017122600overview_034.jpg?2017122600

    ARPEGE - 3/10 - Shows snow but very hit and miss and patchy 

    overview_027.jpg?2017122600overview_030.jpg?2017122600overview_033.jpg?2017122600

    ICON 4/10 -While it shows widespread snow its very brief on the back edge so any accumulations likely to be temp or small 

    overview_026.jpg?2017122600overview_028.jpg?2017122600overview_030.jpg?2017122600overview_032.jpg?2017122600

     

    EURO4 5/10 - EURO4 tends to have a pretty poor signal I have been told when it comes to snow and usually under does it so this is nice..

    Rain/Snowfall EURO4 We 27.12.2017 00 GMTRain/Snowfall EURO4 We 27.12.2017 06 GMTRain/Snowfall EURO4 We 27.12.2017 12 GMT

     

    GFS 8/10 Heavy persistent snow would be quite a nice covering I would have thought but the reverse to the EURO4 it likes to over do it a tad

    overview_030.jpg?2017122600overview_036.jpg?2017122600overview_042.jpg?2017122600

    The ECM snow depth ones that are posted in the Model thread a lot I have not included simply because I think they are pretty poor. It calculates the amount of snow falling from the sky not what will settle. Just like the above it may transpire that we are all the wrong side of marginal see falling snow and nothing settles.

    The ECM is also way way further north than all the above which have a good agreement on the lows position. Now all we have to do is cross our fingers and toes wish upon a star (not the one on the tree) and hope the cold air undercuts quicker and quicker on todays runs.

     

    EDIT: Just wacthed the BBC forcast that came out last night they seem to be following the ECM idea. Of course they have there own models, so I am wondering if we are seeing a southward correction (like last time) on this system. I am trying to find my live surface pressure website that gives real time info.

    EDIT 2: Best thing really to do is scrap all the models today and stay away from the PC/Mobile till around 00z tonight and watch how things unfold. As it looks like 00z tonight will be the tipping point.

    Edited by Surrey
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Morning Gang a Merry Christmas to all.

     

    Still massive differences this morning on all the high res models I have rated them out of 10 for our region based upon the most likely showing snow. 10 heavy snow fall, 1 nothing but rain.

    Lets get the bad out the way first 

    HIRLAM 2/10 

    overview_032.jpg?2017122600overview_033.jpg?2017122600overview_034.jpg?2017122600

    ARPEGE - 3/10 - Shows snow but very hit and miss and patchy 

    overview_027.jpg?2017122600overview_030.jpg?2017122600overview_033.jpg?2017122600

    ICON 4/10 -While it shows widespread snow its very brief on the back edge so any accumulations likely to be temp or small 

    overview_026.jpg?2017122600overview_028.jpg?2017122600overview_030.jpg?2017122600overview_032.jpg?2017122600

     

    EURO4 5/10 - EURO4 tends to have a pretty poor signal I have been told when it comes to snow and usually under does it so this is nice..

    Rain/Snowfall EURO4 We 27.12.2017 00 GMTRain/Snowfall EURO4 We 27.12.2017 06 GMTRain/Snowfall EURO4 We 27.12.2017 12 GMT

     

    GFS 8/10 Heavy persistent snow would be quite a nice covering I would have thought but the reverse to the EURO4 it likes to over do it a tad

    overview_030.jpg?2017122600overview_036.jpg?2017122600overview_042.jpg?2017122600

    The ECM snow depth ones that are posted in the Model thread a lot I have not included simply because I think they are pretty poor. It calculates the amount of snow falling from the sky not what will settle. Just like the above it may transpire that we are all the wrong side of marginal see falling snow and nothing settles.

    The ECM is also way way further north than all the above which have a good agreement on the lows position. Now all we have to do is cross our fingers and toes wish upon a star (not the one on the tree) and hope the cold air undercuts quicker and quicker on todays runs.

     

     

    Nice post Surrey thanks ? and a merry Christmas to you too, just to add Arome to the mix and it looks pretty good .

    AF8F221B-6129-4435-A211-10F6C149BD51.png

    33337AFA-BB97-4AE3-A227-47A91F69D8F2.png

    CAE035AF-BF6F-41FA-B664-621B778ED384.png

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Nice post Surrey thanks ? and a merry Christmas to you too, just to add Arome to the mix and it looks pretty good .

    AF8F221B-6129-4435-A211-10F6C149BD51.png

    33337AFA-BB97-4AE3-A227-47A91F69D8F2.png

    CAE035AF-BF6F-41FA-B664-621B778ED384.png

    Quite a few hours of snow on that something I have also noticed is some models delay the PPN leaving the east coast and east portion of our region .

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    Posted
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton

    Is it actually going to snow across our region chances of it settling must be slim as its been so mild

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    Here's this morning's BBC/Met Office forecast for Weds. The biggest 'take' from the sequence is that the area of snowfall dwindles as the system moves east, so by the time it reaches eastern coastal counties it looks as if we end up with a few wet flakes. But looking very interesting for the western half of the Region!

    Just seen your post @Mark wheeler and AROME is certainly far more bullish about a decent area of falling snow making it to the far east of our Region. Just goes to highlight the uncertainty!

    Here's the beeb sequence for 01.00 hours, 05.00, 07.00 and 11.00 hours Weds:

    5a420a8e74854_BBCWed01hours.thumb.jpg.6b207cc776f5edee6f8a7d3985fcd474.jpg5a420aa5eb0ee_BBCWed05hours.thumb.jpg.8c2a188336eebc0351c1697997f72289.jpg5a420ab2b1984_BBCWed07hours.thumb.jpg.b0ae90403ea66f49b302371b968eb2d0.jpg5a420ad724d2e_BBCWed11hours.thumb.jpg.fc852774a6cdcea38591a36a6a82df25.jpg

     

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