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SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: SW
  • Location: SW

    Quite a good YouTube video from Liam Dutton, forecasting cold to mid December with the odd mild day.  Also explains why we will be getting a northerly.  It was a good tutorial for me anyway.  Sorry not sure how to post the link yet.

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    Merry Xmas, To all on the South East thread. Didn't think I'd still be here, being able to celebrate Christmas, after suffering a brain haemorrhage/stroke, in September 2015. But fortunately, due

    Snowline has moved back across the water now so north kent / Surrey etc back in the fray - great wrap around as well heavy snow here in Eltham -1cm , wifey just text 0.2c in NAG with heavy snow a

    It is not showing 20cm for Reading whatsoever! I see he's a Reading student, I think he's trying to convince himself...

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Lovely sunshine all morning, just a few clouds turning up now.

    Yup Thursday will be the day that some might get lucky, remember that it can snow at well below the freezing level (0c Isotherm) if conditions are right. Ideally we would want to see a trough move down the north sea and into our region with some heavy showers, late in the afternoon would be perfect, it would almost certainly settle and then quickly freeze as everything moved away south after dark and skies cleared. Would produce some lovely driving conditions for the evening rush hour.:D

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    3 Key Factors we need to go our way:-

    1. Wind - We need this switching to a NE'ly from the NW that looks set,  

    2. Moisture - if we can bring in a NE'ly feed from the sea with 850Hpa's less than -7c then we stand a good chance of seeing the white stuff. if continues a  NW'ly it will be dry, cold and mainly sunny

    3. Timing - Of points 1 and 2

    Note: 850Hpa's look fine to me.

     

     

     

    Edited by Kent Blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    3 hours ago, Sardonixs said:

    Out of Wednesday and Thursday, Thursday looks the better bet for anything wintry, although still marginal TBH.  Wednesday uppers and dew points are the wrong side of marginal and freezing level is too high:

    nmmuk-37-41-0.thumb.png.b11683ae10afb0b7acf6651b46ee0c05.pngnmmuk-18-41-0.thumb.png.69a26366c7204e1c2d4d16e83b5a4acc.pngnmmuk-16-41-0.thumb.png.5c85aa3db7ed5ef0876f1bbcc3b66de8.png

    Thursday evening uppers look better.

    nmmuk-16-68-0.thumb.png.493c90e5d08107e0cb274cd0e898ca8c.png

    But  were precipitation is forecast dew points look too high and freezing level is also higher:

    nmmuk-1-70-0.thumb.png.4fe73b8e6ddeb04eddde4d7bf5f65867.png

    So at the moment East Anglia and the far east of Kent look to be the areas that could see something wintery, although elevation above 250/300m would  be needed and dew points need to be a couple of degrees lower than currently forecast for it to be snow rather than sleet.  Further west looks dry. 

     

     

    nmmuk-37-68-0.png

    Wednesday AM looks less marginal with the chance of wintry precipitation there to rather low levels, compared to later on in the day when it appears less conducive.

    B6BB8A1E-C02A-4776-A3C8-2C8BE940F947.thumb.gif.860f5e35d6037d12b91981c70fd0ad3b.gif14B4D9BA-903C-4528-A9A9-8C97EA4E40F7.thumb.gif.bac37d54d8bfd3931a3d1f47b161811c.gifD287A888-23FA-498A-A7D1-E77698949B1A.thumb.gif.a9cc367d8ea6d4e5933d8a7ece5061ed.gif

    Freezing level 600m at 0600 it would fall under heavier precipitation, while GFS doesn’t have any precipitation NetWx-SR does reasonable chance wintry precipitation earl Wednesday morning.

    Those at the mercy of the onshore wind coastal Norfolk will get cold rain it appears. 

    CEE51748-A916-4171-A281-3A2E629BB87D.thumb.png.1d74a11eb53f14d34792246f07309dac.png

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 hour ago, Sharpedge said:

    Quite a good YouTube video from Liam Dutton, forecasting cold to mid December with the odd mild day.  Also explains why we will be getting a northerly.  It was a good tutorial for me anyway.  Sorry not sure how to post the link yet.

    Via twitter click on the downwards arrow > Share Tweet via.. > copy link to tweet > paste

    BF857449-D275-4694-8B00-DC208C3CF121.thumb.png.8104719709392588ffed828af798ff47.png

    or from YouTube itself click on share > copy link and paste.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    BBC have removed the sleet shower symbol for the SE on Thursday, it had only been showing for St Albans though anyway.:nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    NetWx-SR has wintry showers across our entire region tomorrow.

    viewimage.thumb.png.acb2fa1548b9c4afd30f3080e5958170.png

    So it'll be one of those radar watching days! I think low levels more likely to see a wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow in heavier bursts, anywhere with elevation has a good chance. 

    More chance of showers falling as snow on Thursday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull

    Was heading out to lunch at work today and had the lightest little graupel shower. Nice to see winter precip though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

     

    Those at the mercy of the onshore wind coastal Norfolk will get cold rain it appears. 

    CEE51748-A916-4171-A281-3A2E629BB87D.thumb.png.1d74a11eb53f14d34792246f07309dac.png

     

    Lovely.  No wonder I'd prefer a Euro high!:nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    Just had a little RAIN. rain rain rain bedford rain bugger rain off.

    it didn't even try.:cold-emoji:

    Edited by Dami
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Dew points have dropped considerably widely good enough for snow based on this parameter alone.

    572CB4CE-C38A-433A-9FD7-815B6270A5A9.thumb.png.2b6322e924d0af22eb358db25afb90cb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    Just now, Daniel* said:

    Dew points have dropped considerably widely good enough for snow based on this parameter alone.

    572CB4CE-C38A-433A-9FD7-815B6270A5A9.thumb.png.2b6322e924d0af22eb358db25afb90cb.png

    Yes, the dew point here dropped suddenly at around 15:00 hours.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    43 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    NetWx-SR has wintry showers across our entire region tomorrow.

    viewimage.thumb.png.acb2fa1548b9c4afd30f3080e5958170.png

    So it'll be one of those radar watching days! I think low levels more likely to see a wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow in heavier bursts, anywhere with elevation has a good chance. 

    More chance of showers falling as snow on Thursday.

    We probably won't get much if at all tomorrow  (rain/hail/sleet more likely). However Thursday into Friday the GFS has a couple of centimetres for a good chuck of East Anglia which corresponds to a cold pool and associated secondary low moving down the north sea generating more showers which should turn increasingly to snow away from the immediate coastline. Will do a bit more in depth later when i get home.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

    The temperature at 17:40 is 3.8 °C and the dew point is quite high at 3.5°C  but the apparent temperature is at 0.8 °C. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    GFS 12z Control will send the MOD thread into full on snowball fight mode :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    Decent shot at some cold wintry conditions before some milder weather greets us as we get almost into Mid December mode....in line with the Meto Outlook?

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    So Thursday

    fax48s.gif?2

    We see that low slipping south down the north sea with a showery trough moving into East Anglia and NE England, the airmass is the right side of marginal potentially to give at least a dusting of snow, this is also shown on the other models as well.

    48-574UK.GIF?28-12   63-780UK.GIF?28-12

    Plenty of showers shown on the models including the GFS which shows them falling as snow. By Friday morning, up to an inch of lying snow across many parts of Norfolk and Suffolk but I wouldn't discound areas south and west of the locations shown on thr GFS. If the wind veers north easterly the showers could get blown well inland, especially those in line with the Wash.

    850s are marginal, but dew points are below freezing throughout this period, so a good chance for some from this event. Fingers crossed

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Surrey

    We have started this cold spell of and already a suprise, anything wintry with these? They have come a fair way inland! 

    Screenshot_20171128-191609.thumb.png.fd26a14a684342b90758d1018e71e0ce.png

    Edited by Surrey
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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    We have started this cold spell of and already a suprise, anything wintry with these? They have come a fair way inland! 

    Screenshot_20171128-191609.thumb.png.fd26a14a684342b90758d1018e71e0ce.png

    It was spitting with rain on my drive home just now, so nothing wintry here

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    Posted
  • Location: Great Yeldham, North Essex
  • Location: Great Yeldham, North Essex

    I drove through a shower at 6.15pm and it was 2c but most definitely rain. Must have been very marginal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

    According to the main thread it’s back on for next week!

    i can’t stand it anymore.:wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    1 minute ago, lawrenk said:

    According to the main thread it’s back on for next week!

    i can’t stand it anymore.:wallbash:

    Ignore the inter-run changes and anything post-T+144.  Follow the general pattern rather than the fine detail.

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