SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[Tom Jarvis 889]

Will my area finally get a covering of white stuff tomorrow or will it be another damp squib  

[Sweetdream 240]

2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Due to arrive tomorrow afternoon. 

I don’t think temperatures and DP’s will be low enough below Home Counties. 

No it's seems for those southeast it's always daytime when everything is just hovering above the isotherm.  I count myself lucky with regards to the snow today very rare in my location. Always to the east or to the west by about 30 miles lol.  So I have had my snow fix had a snowball fight with my son and daughter and now can't wait for it to dry out 

[stewfox 4,370]

Assume it's 100 mlies north when is it expected to arrive. Will it reach Oxfordshire

[Met4Cast 12,211]

3 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

What does the really bright purple areas mean on the map please ?

The bright purple is the snow line, so how close to the ground snow is falling - Though I accidentally cut off the key when I screenshotted

[DonnaThw 730]

My chance of snow on the nw forecast tells me I've gone from 14% to 54% do you think they are trying to make us feel a little bit included  

[Swave Snow 697]

When are the temps supposed to lower so much drip drip going on in nw London

 

[DonnaThw 730]

Just now, Danny* said:

The bright purple is the snow line, so how close to the ground snow is falling - Though I accidentally cut off the key when I screenshotted

So if its bright pink, its probably going to snow??

[Snowman31 159]

Just now, Swave Snow said:

When are the temps supposed to lower so much drip drip going on in nw London

 

Yes, I hate that dripping sound

[Sweetdream 240]

6 minutes ago, James Oliver said:

I like your style! What's the best set up for Kent to be in with any chance of the action tomorrow? 

Storm positioning etc? 

You want a slight north east correction but not by 100 miles as once again midlands will get the most out of this feature. I would say 50 miles and it could be all good for you. 

[mpkio2 832]

20 hours ago, mpkio2 said:

Good evening all, fellow southerners!

Are snow chances have upgraded a bit over the past few hours, huh?

A mixture of sleet/rain and to top it off, some heavy snow?

Surely not!

Tomorrows gonna be a LONG day and I gotta feeling a few surprises may crop up for our region.

Heres to hoping....

 

 

I said this yesterday evening and it looks like it was the right call!

Many posters woke up to a surprise snowfall in places across our region and we've had over 20+ pages of posts in just one day!

I think theres a chance that more snow will fall tomorrow for our region.

Yesterday people were worrying about DP's being too high....and the majority of our region still got snow even with these 850temps....

As long our has its own cold pool and DP's are -0, then wintry PPN will fall.

[Nick L 23,200]

It's rapidly turning into a horrid slush fest out there now.

[Met4Cast 12,211]

2 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

So if its bright pink, its probably going to snow??

3am - 9am the ECM has the snow line dropping from about 1000 feet down to roughly 50-150 feet. So areas below that are likely to see sleet/rain, areas at that elevation or above likely to see snow.

Though obviously you need to account for evaporative cooling etc. But, like Nick said earlier, higher ground seems necessary for tomorrow, lower levels unlikely to see much action. Other High-Res models seem to collaborate that, but we'll see what the 18z bring.

[stewfox 4,370]

4 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

You want a slight north east correction but not by 100 miles as once again midlands will get the most out of this feature. I would say 50 miles and it could be all good for you. 

What's the timing re this. Early morning or afternoon .

[James Oliver 163]

2 minutes ago, Sweetdream said:

You want a slight north east correction but not by 100 miles as once again midlands will get the most out of this feature. I would say 50 miles and it could be all good for you. 

Failing that what about a transitional event as it pivots and clears back through later in the day? 

I recall something similar happening in January last year. We saw a period of snow down to sea level as it cleared through.

[Nick F 23,029]

The sleet and snow over Wales, Midlands and southern parts of N England should sink SE over our area overnight, though will be light and probably wont amount to much more. The French low should pep up the snowfall tomorrow morning into the afternoon across parts of the SE, as the northern flank of the lows precipitation moves across the SE, heaviest rates modelled towards S and E Kent and E Sussex, but more likely to be rain here, with snow more further N and W  toward London and Essex, northern and western extent rather uncertain this far off, so be interesting which model is on the money.

[DonnaThw 730]

Just now, Danny* said:

3am - 9am the ECM has the snow line dropping from about 1000 feet down to roughly 50-150 feet. So areas below that are likely to see sleet/rain, areas at that elevation or above likely to see snow.

Though obviously you need to account for evaporative cooling etc. But, like Nick said earlier, higher ground seems necessary for tomorrow, lower levels unlikely to see much action. Other High-Res models seem to collaborate that, but we'll see what the 18z bring.

Thanks got it now

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman 3,332]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

The sleet and snow over Wales, Midlands and southern parts of N England should sink SE over our area overnight, though will be light and probably wont amount to much more. The French low should pep up the snowfall tomorrow morning into the afternoon across parts of the SE, as the northern flank of the lows precipitation moves across the SE, heaviest rates modelled towards S and E Kent and E Sussex, but more likely to be rain here, with snow more further N and W  toward London and Essex, northern and western extent rather uncertain this far off, so be interesting which model is on the money.

What would your thoughts be for the snowline in Essex or further north, should the system follow a different path than modelled?

[chionomaniac 31,112]

Those with snow cover need to hope for clearer skies ASAP to stop that snow melt. Currently broken cloud here and that temp of 7ºC earlier has plummeted close to freezing. XC says 1ºC at Shoreham - not often that is seen there!

[Sweetdream 240]

5 minutes ago, stewfox said:

What's the timing re this. Early morning or afternoon .

Like everything depending on wind and how fast this feature is moving it could be morning to /lunchtime.  

[SMU 80,650]

Just went my favourite way home

west kingsdown @ 230M 3-4cm snow & -0.5c ish- roads were glazed

new ash green @140M 1-2cm of snow & 0.2c with a bit of a drip drip !

S

[alexisj9 13,342]

26 minutes ago, HighPressure said:

Did you get Snow today?

Sevenoaks a bit hit and miss a covering on the top of the downs, although driving towards Maidstone down the M20 a few hours ago there is an area of quite a decent covering of about an couple of inches (max), where it has remained snow all day??  

Nope all rain here. Temp got up to 8 lol. We were in the sw gale.

[Nick F 23,029]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

What would your thoughts be for the snowline in Essex or further north, should the system follow a different path than modelled?

If anything, looks a bit more marginal tomorrow for places that have seen snow today - especially the east of our region, as there'll be a strong NE wind bringing in moisture off the N Sea. Today winds were light M4/Thames northwards under the low moving east - which allowed little rise in temperature / little mixing and allowed evaporative cooling unhindered.

If the low moving NE over France is deeper than modelled, then it will track further north, so be interesting looking at obs to see if it is deeper then models forecast.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Nick F

[Rob Deacon 339]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Those with snow cover need to hope for clearer skies ASAP to stop that snow melt. Currently broken cloud here and that temp of 7ºC earlier has plummeted close to freezing. XC says 1ºC at Shoreham - not often that is seen there!

Yes it has dropped off a lot, in Haywards Heath I recorded 7.4c at it's peak today, in last few hours it has dropped off quite fast, now 0.3c, DP 0.1c

[Dbarb 305]

Im not really sure If I want more snow here in Essex which is a weird thing to say as any more would cause absolute mayhem.  

[Grinzzz 63]

It's slowed down a lot late afternoon onward in North Bucks but never quite stopped.  Bin-top total was a healthy 14.5cm, not bad at all!