SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[Nick L 19,334]

1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Seriousily.no frost here and temp has been on rise since 7pm when there was a slight frost on cars but 30mins ago nothing.Good luck to those in SE thread-Those North and West of London could get a significant fall tomorrow and look forward to all the pics coming in. I still think those with elevation in NW Kent like KNockholt and SM in New Ash Green could also be in business.Anyway it has been a great start to winter model watching and i think i have seen more potential great charts in last 2 weeks than the whole of last 3 winters put together(shame not that many have come to fruition but still think this could be a winter that will deliver for us later this month and into January)

I'm looking at the road sensors in Kent right now, the road temperatures are below zero widely so the grit is justified.

[Nick L 19,334]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

These supposed experts are only any good these days in winter months when its zonal, mild and damp.

Slightly insulting but okay, if you insist.

[Daniel* 12,565]

I’m going to have some rest!

Tomorrow is going to be a long day and it starts early... keep everything crossed  

Hope to see more than a dusting that’s what my location has mustered on near on 5 long years. 

[Steve Murr 74,929]

Second 18z run in

Hirlam - best chart T15

[Hotspur62 1,127]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I'm looking at the road sensors in Kent right now, the road temperatures are below zero widely so the grit is justified.

That's fair enough and max temp only been about 3.1 today which started with a hard frost and temps of around -2. I was just commenting that frost had gone from cars in space of 2 hours which was due to the cloud cover increasing.Glad it did as it meant i didnt have to scrape the windscreen again lol!

[mpkio2 827]

Good evening all, fellow southerners!

Are snow chances have upgraded a bit over the past few hours, huh?

This is what BBC are forecasting for my area in Central.North West London.....

A mixture of sleet/rain and to top it off, some heavy snow?

Surely not!

Tomorrows gonna be a LONG day and I gotta feeling a few surprises may crop up for our region.

Heres to hoping....

 

[Jayfromcardiff 1,739]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Second 18z run in

Hirlam - best chart T15

I did say in the mad thread we'd get the lot earlier on but had my post deleted lol.

 

[Hotspur62 1,127]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Second 18z run in

Hirlam - best chart T15

Now that is an interesting chart and puts folk in NW Kent back in the snow game,espicially those with elevation!!

[Nick L 19,334]

HIRLAM looks bloody brilliant!

[Ice Day 5,123]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Second 18z run in

Hirlam - best chart T15

Steve, your phone's fully charged at last....surely a good omen!?

[Southender 1,972]

The Hirlam. How accurate is that though, really?

[Jayces 473]

9 minutes ago, snowray said:

These supposed experts are only any good these days in winter months when its zonal, mild and damp.

In their defence I don't think they actually forecast the weather, that's what they pay the Met Office for.

I imagine they produce the reports based on what they are given and with a marginal chargeable hourly (it seems) situation such as this it can't be easy.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman 3,316]

Just now, Nick L said:

HIRLAM looks bloody brilliant!

Cold rain for me.

[Steve Murr 74,929]

17 minutes ago, Southender said:

The Hirlam. How accurate is that though, really?

Hirlam is dutch for - nonaneigesoufender

[Steve Murr 74,929]

18 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Steve, your phone's fully charged at last....surely a good omen!?

Yes Ive had it plugged in since 4 - batteries fubared !

[Mark wheeler 6,153]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

HIRLAM looks bloody brilliant!

Nick , Thanks for your knowledgeable updates throughout the day , it is much appreciated and please keep them coming , which leads me to one question , are there any more high resolution runs tonight ? . 

Edited December 9, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[handler66 9]

Showers coming into the crawley/sussex area frontal edge is turning to Snow

[Coopsy 2,253]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Second 18z run in

Hirlam - best chart T15

That’s looking surprisingly good for our region of north Kent. How likely is that though 

[Long haul to mild 1,674]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Second 18z run in

Hirlam - best chart T15

I've been following the last few HIRLAM runs and the heavy snow areas have definitely moved South over the course of the day. The 6Z had the heaviest ppn over Suffolk , by the 12Z it was over N Essex, now the 18Z has it over S Essex.

My experiences with the HIRLAM in the summer were that it was quite good but tended to overstate precipitation amounts. Hopefully it hasn't this time!

[Steve Murr 74,929]

17 minutes ago, c00ps said:

That’s looking surprisingly good for our region of north Kent. How likely is that though 

If im 100% honest its really really borderline - if your south of London then you need elevation

if your north of london you need elevation but may still see snow - 

places like High Wycombe - Luton / Dunstable look set here...

[Matty J 120]

-1.3 here at the minute with a fairly thick frost already.

I'm more optimistic of Snow tomorrow after seeing the latest charts and hearing opinions from those more knowledgeable on this thread, although of course part of me still expects to wake up rain!

[steveinsussex 1,129]

3 minutes ago, handler66 said:

Showers coming into the crawley/sussex area frontal edge is turning to Snow

Well thats about 5 miles from here so ill turn the lamp post on

[Nick L 19,334]

4 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Nick , Thanks for your knowledgeable updates throughout the day , it is much appreciated and please keep them coming , which leads me to one question , are there any more high resolution runs tonight ? . 

UKV 18z is just out, really not much change to be honest. We've reached the point now where it's just a case of waiting and hoping.

I was supposed to be going to the pub at midday tomorrow for the footy, but maybe I won't be able to 

[Jayces 473]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

If im 100% honest its really really borderline - if your south of London then you need elevation

So you're saying I should go upstairs? ?

[Nick L 19,334]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

If im 100% honest its really really borderline - if your south of London then you need elevation

if your north of london you need elevation but may still see snow - 

places like High Wycombe - Luton / Dunstable look set here...

I've got a flight from Luton on Monday morning