SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[Delka]

It started off as sleet but is now completely back to rain. Dew point and temperature were sub zero when the precip started so can anyone tell me why we didn't have any front edge snow here? It seemed alot less likely this time given temps then earlier this month yet we managed better then

[lottiekent]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

All rain and will be for off all of us. 

Incredible, - 3 at 00:50 this morning at my local weather station. By 06:00 this morning it was +3,  6 degree rise in just over 5 hours. 

If you got on a plane and landed at Heathrow at 00:00 frosty and cold scenes would have met you,  by 02:00 you wouldn't have believed me if you landed then and I said it was a very harsh frost about 2 hours ago 

I agree...went to sleep and it was -2 and white with frost, ice and some snow cover and woke to +4c wind and rain. I’m really hoping we get a potent easterly as some stage in the next couple of months so our region can join in on winter proper.

[moogyboobles]

23 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I agree...went to sleep and it was -2 and white with frost, ice and some snow cover and woke to +4c wind and rain. I’m really hoping we get a potent easterly as some stage in the next couple of months so our region can join in on winter proper.

Yes, it's just a bit weird. I photographed a wedding yesterday and it was absolutely freezing, when I left the venue in Thorpe Bay last night the minor roads were icy and slippery already and when I arrived home all the cars were properly iced over.
I woke up and it's raining and positively balmy now! Since 3am it's gone from -3 to plus 5!

[Katrine Basso]

What has happened to the weather as it was forecasted to be a fine, sunny day with temperatures of -1°C to -2°C.  The roads were gritted last night as last night the temperature was -1°C.  It is raining heavily today and I went on to the Thurrock 4.4 °C  and the dew point is 4.1 °C .   The barometer pressure is 999.0 mb  and it is falling at -1.7 mb per hour.

[lassie23]

this weather is nuts, 3c to 13c come saturday...i mean ...come on, just settle into a freeze and stop teasing, you left trouser leg laminate floori super duper i'm not happy i'm quite sad39

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bit of weather here associated with that intense rain south and west of London black skies and torrential rain very strong gusty winds too, looks very very windy and wet over the next 48 hours 

[stainesbloke]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Bit of weather here associated with that intense rain south and west of London black skies and torrential rain very strong gusty winds too, looks very very windy and wet over the next 48 hours 

Yes Surrey, quite wild up in Englefield Green, black skies to the S and torrential rain, very gusty winds. Completely different to yesterday! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

24 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes Surrey, quite wild up in Englefield Green, black skies to the S and torrential rain, very gusty winds. Completely different to yesterday! 

Very different, wind slowly increasing today and especially in the early hours I expect to see the met Office wind warning to update soon High RES net weather model showing inland gusts of upto 60mph..

Edit: rolled the model forward to tomorrow night and more very windy conditions 70mph on the coast and inland 60mph plus 

 

Edited December 29, 2017 by Surrey

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Delka said:

It started off as sleet but is now completely back to rain. Dew point and temperature were sub zero when the precip started so can anyone tell me why we didn't have any front edge snow here? It seemed alot less likely this time given temps then earlier this month yet we managed better then

Because we never get any front edge snow any more unless you live on a mountain in the north somewhere, it just goes from very cold to very mild in the blink of an eye so no snowy breakdown. 

[snowfish1]

Vile here. Dark, gusty, raining, bed day 

[JennyJane1]

Dark here, icy rain falling from time to time, i have a cold so i'm taking lemsip.

[LightningLover]

5 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Dark here, icy rain falling from time to time, i have a cold so i'm taking lemsip.

Get well soon!

[JennyJane1]

5 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Get well soon!

thanks.

[interested & confused]

Light level seems stuck in the twilight zone, so lights on indoors, and the footpath is still flooded from overnight rain.

The overnight low in the greenhouse was  -3.6C and now it's 7C and blustery with gusts up to 32mph

[Cableguy]

Disgusting weather here today, cold wet & windy, having said that yesterday was a beautiful day!

[Donna3397]

8 here now on the south coast, rain has finally cleared and now its quite a nice afternoon. Bern fed up of all the dull wet weather, much prefer cold and bright to this mess we seem to have at the moment

[Flaked Queen]

Just had a quick hail shower 

[alexisj9]

That wind this morning Didn't expect it to be so strong. It toppled a full heavy bin full of domestic waste. That warm front was a squall down here. Wind has died since. As soon as the front passed. Not looking forward to this evening' warm front.

[stainesbloke]

After that wild first part of this morning, the clouds broke and some sunshine arrived. Heavy shower just passed over with gusty winds, but the sun is appearing again now. 7C currently.

Edited December 29, 2017 by stainesbloke

[CK1981]

I’ve just read a very interesting tweet from Ian F. Apparently, the temperature anomalies for weeks 1 - 3 of January have suddenly flipped from positive to negative within the ECMWF. Maybe I was a little too hasty with my assessment yesterday! 

Edited December 29, 2017 by CK1981

[yamkin]

6 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I’ve just read a very interesting tweet from Ian F. Apparently, the temperature anomalies for week’s 1 - 3 of January have suddenly flipped from positive to negative within the ECMWF. Maybe I was a little too hasty with my assessment yesterday! 

Even GFS is hinting of big changes as well. For example, from the 5th - 6th January, GFS shows a stormy period dragging very cold uppers in the SE with snow which would give a blizzard conditions. Still early days, but promising.

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Even GFS is hinting of big changes as well. For example, from the 5th - 6th January, GFS shows a stormy period dragging very cold uppers in the SE with snow which would give a blizzard conditions. Still early days, but promising.

Definitely trending in the right direction. It’s good to see the jet diving to the south of the U.K. in the longer term bringing more of us into the polar side. We then need some low pressure systems sliding into the colder air for the fun and games to begin ?

Edited December 29, 2017 by CK1981

[tinybill]

53 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Definitely trending in the right direction. It’s good to see the jet diving to the south of the U.K. in the longer term bringing more of us into the polar side. We then need some low pressure systems sliding into the colder air for the fun and games to begin ?

5_6  0nwards  is  looking interesting and dep in to f1  at the moment a forcasting  nightmare for  the pro met  people

[CK1981]

8 minutes ago, tinybill said:

5_6  0nwards  is  looking interesting and dep in to f1  at the moment a forcasting  nightmare for  the pro met  people

Definitely difficult to nail any medium term forecast with confidence. I do expect, however, the wording of the Met Office outlook to take a more wintery note as the models firm up in the next few days. Even the latest update has a more wintery flavour than yesterday’s!

[lassie23]

wasn't expecting anything wintry as the temps, despite being lower than predicted, recovered quickly with the arrival of rain, january 5th and 6th should be fun