SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

Lovely day again with lots of sunshine. The countryfile forecast seems to be different to the online forecast which still suggests plenty of showers moving into parts of East Anglia and probably Kent as well from Tuesday afternoon onwards.

[lassie23]

15 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

on the mod thread a member described the forecast "as exciting as a wet fart in a bottle" !!!

 

6 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Yes the Countryfile report was a bit meh for us down here but still couldn' write off the risk of a sudden wintry shower surprising us - but nothing like Nov 2010 though, lol!! Ah the memories!! But I don't feel this is the end of cold weather, think we'll have more to come. Let's hope!!x

Yes very boring and underwhelming, have the people in the MOD thread watched it or are they too busy making up their own forecasts as usual

[shotski]

I’ve never seen a wet fart in a bottle so I couldn’t possibly comment 

[Methuselah]

When's a snowmaker not a snowmaker? That is the question!

[Methuselah]

Just now, shotski said:

I’ve never seen a wet fart in a bottle so I couldn’t possibly comment 

It's a poor man's Molotov cocktail...?

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

When's a snowmaker not a snowmaker? That is the question!

when anything to do with snow moves into the london area, then it's a drizzle maker

[Snow Queen one]

Morning. The weather in Maidstone today is yuck. Cold and wet.

[Rob Deacon]

Sunday was a lovely crisp sunny morning with a frost, Today with have a typical Autumn Monday, damp and grey 

Still, it looks like later this week is going to be colder again, I wonder if on Thursday the odd snow surprise could be about down south... 

[Daniel*]

40 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

Morning. The weather in Maidstone today is yuck. Cold and wet.

Cold? Went out for an early morning walk very mild and damp if you think it’s cold now god forbid. 

[stainesbloke]

A bit grim out there this morning, some bursts of heavy rain and very gloomy. Looks like it is trying to brighten up a little now and the rain has stopped. 9C currently with a brisk W'ly breeze. The coming week looks very nice with all the sunshine and clean air forecast, maybe even a wintry shower or two, for some.

[throwoff]

Today we name the biggest blob so far!

Blob David Hare, playwright of Bexhill.

[Daniel*]

18 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Today we name the biggest blob so far!

Blob David Hare, playwright of Bexhill.

Let’s hope it is not a damp squib/blob. For our region I’m quite optimistic that many of us will see our first snow this week can’t wait.

 

[Kent Blizzard]

36 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Let’s hope it is not a damp squib/blob. For our region I’m quite optimistic that many of us will see our first snow this week can’t wait.

 

I've been keeping a close eye on what's going to go on over the water from us in Northern France towards the end of this week, could get some decent snow, might have to get on the ferry or the train for an adventure 

[Laurence Hill]

1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I've been keeping a close eye on what's going to go on over the water from us in Northern France towards the end of this week, could get some decent snow, might have to get on the ferry or the train for an adventure 

What does it look like for Dieppe and Le Mans on Thursday and Friday this week?

[Kent Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

What does it look like for Dieppe and Le Mans on Thursday and Friday this week?

Quite different locations them I think? Dieppe being on the coast most likely " wet "...snow further inland?

Edited November 27, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Methuselah]

Just seen the projected daytime maxima (BBC via Frosty. Who else!) for Wednesday, and IMO, 7C is way too high for snowfall to occur - at this time of year?

[throwoff]

We've already named a blob today, but the 06Z has just thrown this into the mixer, that's the closest to the time of run blob thus far.

 

[Met4Cast]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Let’s hope it is not a damp squib/blob. For our region I’m quite optimistic that many of us will see our first snow this week can’t wait.

 

I share that optimism. 

The FAX has a number of troughs moving Southwards in the North Sea, I expect the main risk will be along Eastern Coastal areas/East Anglia 

The APERGE also showing wintry weather around and in our region

I can't see anything significant, but certainly a chance of some flakes falling from the sky this week. I wouldn't worry too much about the forecast BBC temperatures, you can usually knock a couple of degrees off of those and you'll be closer to reality. Uppers and dew points look conductive of snowfall

These situations are often nowcasts, it's an unstable North-North Easterly flow so expect things to develop at relatively short notice/nowcasting. Wednesday > Friday looks like the greatest chance for our region.

NetWX-SR high res model is showing this for the early hours of Wednesday.

Edited November 27, 2017 by Daniel Smith

[Kent Blizzard]

The good thing is, we have something to monitor this week 

[Dami]

Rain had stopped by the time we had to go out, not icy at all out,the mild side of cold, cloudy and now a light breeze.

still don't think we will get much here.

Good old beddy. Doing boring weather lovers proud since 2007.

 

 

[Daniel*]

44 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I share that optimism. 

The FAX has a number of troughs moving Southwards in the North Sea, I expect the main risk will be along Eastern Coastal areas/East Anglia 

The APERGE also showing wintry weather around and in our region

I can't see anything significant, but certainly a chance of some flakes falling from the sky this week. I wouldn't worry too much about the forecast BBC temperatures, you can usually knock a couple of degrees off of those and you'll be closer to reality. Uppers and dew points look conductive of snowfall

These situations are often nowcasts, it's an unstable North-North Easterly flow so expect things to develop at relatively short notice/nowcasting. Wednesday > Friday looks like the greatest chance for our region.

NetWX-SR high res model is showing this for the early hours of Wednesday.

Nicely covered. Thursday looks very cold with maximum temperature of 3C in the London area frost will not thaw in the shade, s word showers moving inland decidedly wintry. 

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Just seen the projected daytime maxima (BBC via Frosty. Who else!) for Wednesday, and IMO, 7C is way too high for snowfall to occur - at this time of year?

Yes. The BBC forecast have highs all week of around 7C in the SE, which isn't great for snow. Not sure where people are getting maximum temperatures of 3C for London on Thursday? That would be more conducive for snow, obviously.

Edited November 27, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes. The BBC forecast have highs all week of around 7C in the SE, which isn't great for snow. Not sure where people are getting maximum temperatures of 3C for London on Thursday? That would be more conducive, obviously!

3C would indeed be much better, possibly better for you than for me; I am only 6 miles from the coast...

[Kent Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes. The BBC forecast have highs all week of around 7C in the SE, which isn't great for snow. Not sure where people are getting maximum temperatures of 3C for London on Thursday? That would be more conducive for snow, obviously.

The BBC weather app is giving me the following if we can believe it:-

Tues Max 5c, Weds Max 5*c (-1 Overnight ), Thurs Max 5*c...not getting to 7*c till Sunday.

 

 

 

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

3C would indeed be much better, possibly better for you than for me; I am only 6 miles from the coast...

Even at 3C though, snow won't settle. So we might see some falling but it's unlikely to stick. Nice though, to have something wintry in the forecast. You'll see the heavier showers near the coast too (unlikely, as usual, to see anything this side of London).