SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Aside from the extreme east in which it will largely be rain & sleet appears we’re good to see some snow.  

[saint]

Well this has sneaked up on me what with the panic of Christmas... Did somebody mention snow? 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Any chance of me having a foot

If you fly to America, yes.

[Don]

29 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

1cm lol

 

The Americans must look on and chuckle

They probably wouldn't even notice a cm of snow, let alone talk about it!

[PLANET THANET]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Aside from the extreme east in which it will largely be rain & sleet appears we’re good to see some snow.  

no change there thenno different to what I expected, but I live in hope

[NO LONGER POSTING]

ICON 12z also upgrade.. How did this model perform last time? Not really heard much about it 

I mean comparing the 4/5pm grab to the radar looks pretty good..

 

[CK1981]

11 minutes ago, Surrey said:

ICON 12z also upgrade.. How did this model perform last time? Not really heard much about it 

I mean comparing the 4/5pm grab to the radar looks pretty good..

 

Could be a covering here if this is close to the mark!

[clark3r]

.met office only forecast snow for the hills. If the  Latest runs are right they have got theforecast very wrong lol 

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, clark3r said:

.met office only forecast snow for the hills. If the  Latest runs are right they have got theforecast very wrong lol 

Remember a forecast is only wrong after the event has actually happened. The models show a prediction, the met office give us their own input from numerous predictions. 

[Frostbite1980]

1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

Remember a forecast is only wrong after the event has actually happened. The models show a prediction, the met office give us their own input from numerous predictions. 

The forecast though would have been made with old data? The last snow event was wrongly forecast in this area until it had been snowing for several hours and then the forecast from the Met changed early that morning.

[80sWeather]

Just walked to local shop with the kids and it feels very cold and raw outside.

Rain started falling on way home.

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

The forecast though would have been made with old data? The last snow event was wrongly forecast in this area until it had been snowing for several hours and then the forecast from the Met changed early that morning.

It wasn't wrongly forecast though, our area was under a yellow snow warning two days before the 'event'. Admittedly the amber warnings only came out when it was snowing but that was only because no one had any idea where the heaviest falls would be. It was a marginal event that luckily was on the right side.

[Daniel*]

56 minutes ago, Surrey said:

ICON 12z also upgrade.. How did this model perform last time? Not really heard much about it 

I mean comparing the 4/5pm grab to the radar looks pretty good..

 

It performed quite poorly on the run up but all models did with a big southern correction on the day itself or preceding it. Looking at all the other high res models it seems most in line so that’s good. 

[Frostbite1980]

6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Remember a forecast is only wrong after the event has actually happened. The models show a prediction, the met office give us their own input from numerous predictions. 

However the forecasts are based on old data. The last event only gave this area significant snow chances after the event was nearly done.

Not saying they are wrong this time though.

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

It wasn't wrongly forecast though, our area was under a yellow snow warning two days before the 'event'. Admittedly the amber warnings only came out when it was snowing but that was only because no one had any idea where the heaviest falls would be. It was a marginal event that luckily was on the right side.

It was wrongly forecast broadly only up to the day itself really were they really on it. I wasn’t impressed they underdone the snow totals too not speaking on behalf of my location but elsewhere. They were very behind with the latest data a late change in taking amber zone further south - giving some folk false hope. I know the graphics had nothing but rain for London, even when the snow was actually falling, I don’t really take BBC forecasts seriously sadly. 

Edited December 26, 2017 by Daniel*

[Mark wheeler]

12z Arome 

 

[Mark wheeler]

12z aprege 

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

12z Arome 

 

Arome-as other have the capital(london) under intense precip...all rain to snow in transition.

Looking at latest overheads things falling gradualy into place for the transitional phase.

Middle night looks a fare punt @snow from rain across parts of the region3-4am...

Edit; as previous-this is a partial pivot/wrap back system' the in aid of getting the colder air into the mix...

All good if the process plays ball!??

Edited December 26, 2017 by tight isobar

[shotski]

I know Christmas is the time for miracles but is anyone really expecting anything from this tonight ? I can see the Chilterns and the Downs getting a covering but I’m not personally expecting anything for my area, at least nothing accumulating.  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, shotski said:

I know Christmas is the time for miracles but is anyone really expecting anything from this tonight ? I can see the Chilterns and the Downs getting a covering but I’m not personally expecting anything for my area, at least nothing accumulating.  

I wasn't expecting a bean last time, other areas did a lot better in terms of settling snow, but I still got temp accumulated snow and heavy snow most of the day. 

Expect the unexpected but you are right in terms of keeping the expectations low. It goes one way with these kinds of things, usually the wrong way but hey, expect the unexpected 

[shotski]

12 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I wasn't expecting a bean last time, other areas did a lot better in terms of settling snow, but I still got temp accumulated snow and heavy snow most of the day. 

Expect the unexpected but you are right in terms of keeping the expectations low. It goes one way with these kinds of things, usually the wrong way but hey, expect the unexpected 

Last time I was much more confident as the cold air was already in place and it was an all snow event. This time we are relying on an undercut of cold air and I’m not sure we’ll see any meaningful settling snow, hope I’m wrong of course ??

Edited December 26, 2017 by shotski

[danm]

Not expecting much more than a few wet flakes in the wind 

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, danm said:

Not expecting much more than a few wet flakes in the wind 

Especially down here.

[Methuselah]

Still 4C over here, so snow is all but off the table anyway..?

[CK1981]

11 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I wasn't expecting a bean last time, other areas did a lot better in terms of settling snow, but I still got temp accumulated snow and heavy snow most of the day. 

Expect the unexpected but you are right in terms of keeping the expectations low. It goes one way with these kinds of things, usually the wrong way but hey, expect the unexpected 

You must have got the same as me last time mate as you’re not too far away. It must be our turn for something better!