SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[snowrye]

Another knife-edge,marginality system,it's like groundhog day,every time,1 day it will come good,and we'll get buried in the white stuff

[stainesbloke]

After a very wild evening weather wise with stormy winds and heavy rain, this morning is completely different with pleasantly sunny skies and a moderate breeze. Cooler at 4C. Happy Boxing Day!

[snowking]

Well the 0z ECM suite has shifted things that bit further N and W of our region with the sweet spot very much The Midlands - for the majority of our region on both the det. and the control (along with the majority of ensemble members) perhaps a covering, but nothing too significant showing just yet.

So for hope more than anything, it's worth keeping an eye on things as the day progresses. I think the region will see snow falling tomorrow morning, but it's looking less likely that we will see anything too significant at this stage, with modelling overnight generally showing a slight shift away from this region.

Worth keeping an eye on this: https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/infraPolair

We want to see the low slide as far to the South of Ireland as possible. Right now, things look pretty much as per modelling, if perhaps just a tad further North.

That said, it's another incredibly complicated situation, with those mesoscale lows visible behind the main centre of low - our best hope looks to be that as the system swings NE'wards tomorrow morning, the wrap around of the precipitation around the centre of the low is more intense than forecast as it interacts with the North Sea. Sadly, as far as modelling is concerned, the moistest (a word which I'm sure will divide many) of the air will have moved away. We shall see.

Any transition to snow into tomorrow morning will be marked I suspect by the winds swinging around to just North of 270 (ie - as soon as they get to the North of West) which should herald the dig in of the colder air from the North as the low passes Eastwards.

@Mark N - going purely by modelling this morning not only will you probably be one of the first in this region to start reporting the transition, it looks as though you'll probably report some of the higher totals too especially with any elevation. Further East, we are hoping for something a little unexpected to pop up.

 

Edited December 26, 2017 by snowking

[PLANET THANET]

I am no expert like a lot of you on here, but I feel that nothing short of an easterly would bring us snow to thanet. It looks as though we will miss out for the second time this year

[Lampostwatcher]

So our 2nd snow event of the winter now approaching exciting times 

Places north and north west London looking at settling snow I would think 

Miltern Keynes 

Banbury 

Possibly  5-15 cm 

20 miles out 

With north London suburbs around the 5- 10 cm Mark 

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

So our 2nd snow event of the winter now approaching exciting times 

Places north and north west London looking at settling snow I would think 

Miltern Keynes 

Banbury 

Possibly  5-15 cm 

20 miles out 

With north London suburbs around the 5- 10 cm Mark 

 

that optimistic I think. as SK posts, the onight runs have edged the low n a bit but it's the swing ne which is the issue imo. Less swing is better for us ? A meso low also forms Kent on the ecm which helps pull the wrap around further south. as I posted a few times on thread, I don't like wrap arounds re snowfall as I find them unreliable. As the Beeb forecast shows, precip is petering out as it heads east - it's obviously a nowcast when you get up in the morning but the w Midlands again look to be the sweetspot. 

[Snow Queen one]

Hope everybody is having a good Christmas.  This latest low is not very exciting for me here as the last one delivered a flake or two of snow mixed in with a lot of rain.  We had no lying snow and this event looks to be too far north for me again.

Hope you all enjoy the white stuff. 

[Mark wheeler]

Updated weather warning to include parts of Surrey and higher ground , London out of the area as it stands .

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/se

[snowray]

The Low seems to have shifted almost 100miles further north-east in the last couple of runs and it loses intensity as it moves away east. So, SE of London look like getting little in the way of settling snow away from high ground, NW of London doing best, St Albans for example has consistently been showing a heavy snow symbol.

 

Oh and Happy boxing day, or St Stephens day to everyone.

Edited December 26, 2017 by snowray

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

The Low seems to have shifted almost 100miles further north-east in the last couple of runs and it loses intensity as it moves away east. So, SE of London look like getting little in the way of settling snow away from high ground, NW of London doing best, St Albans for example has consistently been showing a heavy snow symbol.

 

Oh and Happy boxing day, or St Stephens day to everyone.

if it snows, i'll eat my socks, got a lot to choose from, since nobody can use their imagination anymore to buy prezzies Hopefully the brown ones are BBQ beef flavour

[LightningLover]

just had an unexpected, squally, heavy shower. 

Edited December 26, 2017 by LightningLover

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

just had an unexpected, squally, heavy shower. 

Just looked at radar, a few showers in the channel moving west north west. 

[CK1981]

Yet again it looks as though the Midlands will get the bulk of the snow, with us left with some slush (at best). The outlook according to the latest model output is also grim up to mid January, so it’s the same old for our patch! I bet we’ll still be chasing a decent easterly at the back end of February. Unlike the USA, things never really fall in our favour for anything prolonged...if cold is your thing  

[snowray]

31 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Yet again it looks as though the Midlands will get the bulk of the snow, with us left with some slush (at best). The outlook according to the latest model output is also grim up to mid January, so it’s the same old for our patch! I bet we’ll still be chasing a decent easterly at the back end of February. Unlike the USA, things never really fall in our favour for anything prolonged...if cold is your thing  

Berkshire will do better than the rest of us further east though. Lates Euro4 run is out.

[crazysnowcatz4]

Felt bitter cold today on my boxing day bike ride to burn off the Christmas lunch, looks like an outside chance of a bit of snow action for tomorrow , so heres looking forward to that as it shouldn't prove disruptive .

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Berkshire will do better than the rest of us further east though. Lates Euro4 run is out.

I’m still expecting a slush fest though!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Most will see falling snow, it's where it's settling that will differ massively. 

Still looks good for western areas of the region. Eyes down to the radar later.. 

[Blessed Weather]

The set-up for this Weds is SO frustrating! The tweet below from the Met Office (about 1927) shows what can happen if it all goes right. In the case below there was a high pressure block over Iceland giving a very cold NE/E'ly flow, so the slider turned southern Britain into a winter wonderland.

If you want to torment yourself, the full blog makes good reading..... https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/12/25/90-years-ago-parts-of-england-were-getting-buried-in-snow/

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

The set-up for this Weds is SO frustrating! The tweet below from the Met Office (about 1927) shows what can happen if it all goes right. In the case below there was a high pressure block over Iceland giving a very cold NE/E'ly flow, so the slider turned southern Britain into a winter wonderland.

If you want to torment yourself, the full blog makes good reading..... https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/12/25/90-years-ago-parts-of-england-were-getting-buried-in-snow/

Interesting, we are Deffo warming up no doubt the climate has under gone massive changes even in 90 years. 

 

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Interesting, we are Deffo warming up no doubt the climate has under gone massive changes even in 90 years. 

 

And we simply don't get hardly any of these sort of cold Iceland/Scandi highs any more in winter.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

And we simply don't get hardly any of these sort of cold Iceland/Scandi highs any more in winter.

Well not for a few now but it can and will happen again. 

[JennyJane1]

Well I'm hoping that we'll get the same sort of set up as we had a few weeks ago which gave us a good covering of snow right in the eastern most bit over here.

 

In the meantime, having had the traditional christmas vegetables as a soup yesterday (because everything has to be pureed due to having swallowing difficuties, but it was good), i've now put the leftovers into the traditional boxing day curry sauce, which is hot and delicious, so its all good, and there is plenty of icecream.

[danm]

Even for areas further north and west I can’t see this being much more than a transient snow event with little settling at low levels, compared to the last snow event earlier in the month. Higher ground the exception obviously 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Lets compare the latest radar to the closet time on the current model run

RADAR

GFS for midday.. Slightly behind but not to bad... In fact the 6pm grab from the GFS is spot with where snow is falling not so much the PPN rates

 

EURO4 - Not to bad.. Although checking the snow/rain charts for EURO4 it has not picked up the small areas of snow currently over southern Ireland and wales 

 

 

HILIRAM is pretty close too, which makes for good viewing for western areas of the region later 

 

  

 

I really think evaporation cooling will help out a lot here. And some lower levels may find themselves seeing temp accumulations 

Very slack winds till eventually the band moves through 

 

 

 

[lassie23]

38 minutes ago, snowray said:

Berkshire will do better than the rest of us further east though. Lates Euro4 run is out.

i hope the berkshirians don't get most of the snow, wasted on them