SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[Rob Deacon]

15 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

Can't really understand why they shut the schools down after a slight to moderate snow fall - when I went to the senior school in the 50's its was often the case during a cold spell that we would still get to school and find that of the delivery of school milk delivered that morning that the bottles would be frozen solid the extent that the milk was expanding out of the bottle and they would be half covered in snow.

It never occurred to us that a snowfall would be an excuse for a day off school. 

The school itself was about a couple of miles from my home - that did not qualify for the school bus - the normal bus service was just one an hour - never did use that - we either walked or cycled. 

Not sure that it is an altogether good thing - kids need to be challenged from time to time and getting to school under adverse conditions helps that - it is character building. 

Meanwhile if anything the temperature at Watford has climbed fractionally to 1 C - no fresh snow and still cloudy. No fresh snow though there is a belt about say 40 miles o the north of us according to the radar. 

I don't understand it either, I went to school in the 80s and was always gutted when I would listen to the radio and never hear my school called out, the head master used to walk 5 miles in the snow to have it open on time.

Where I work expect me to get in unless I want to not get paid, or use a days holiday.

Teaching kids to give up for bit of snow is not good, especially if climate change makes severe weather worse in the future

[yamkin]

 

[James Oliver]

3 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Hi, it’s the atmospheric temperature and for snow to fall the dew point at your location needs to be 0 degrees or below otherwise you will only ever get rain even if the 850 temperatures are very low. You could have -20 upper air temperature and a 2m temp of -3 but if your dew points are above 0 you will have plain old rain 

Thanks. Appreciate the explanation ?

[Frostbite1980]

1 minute ago, James Oliver said:

Thanks. Appreciate the explanation ?

No worries mate and ask away, plenty of knowledgeable people in this threat for sure ?

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Rob Deacon said:

I don't understand it either, I went to school in the 80s and was always gutted when I would listen to the radio and never hear my school called out, the head master used to walk 5 miles in the snow to have it open on time.

Where I work expect me to get in unless I want to not get paid, or use a days holiday.

Teaching kids to give up for bit of snow is not good, especially if climate change makes severe weather worse in the future

The only time i missed school because of cold not snow, although there was lot's of snow about too, was because the pipes got frozen. Even went to school the day after the big storm.

[lottiekent]

13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Well unless xc weather is playing up the models are wrong. Even have frost on cars.

Frost here too...only bit of wintriness I saw here was on my way home about 4pm when the drizzle turned sleety.

[Team Jo]

We actually have fog here at the moment. So 4 inches on the ground maybe and freezing fog....

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Team Jo said:

We actually have fog here at the moment. So 4 inches on the ground maybe and freezing fog....

Brrrr. Sounds very cold.

Edited December 10, 2017 by alexisj9

[Ben Blizzard]

35 minutes ago, Joe Watts said:

Accuweather’s take on tomorrow’s potential “snow”...

wtf the colours should be the other way around!! I got all excited there for a minute! Looks like I'lll have to face it - mostly likely rain tomorrow or even worse..... *shudders * 'wintry mix' 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Ben Blizzard

[Mikel Nimbus]

37 minutes ago, James Oliver said:

What does a lower dp mean? 

Sorry I'm trying to learn 

Dew Point is the temperature at which moisture in the air condenses. A DP below 0 increases the chances of whatever falls from the sky being of the frozen variety, amongst many other factors.

[ReindeerMarmalade]

Dew point still 2 here. I can't see it coming down enough to produce anything tomorrow, despite Met Office's insistence I'll get at least light snow. I still think it's brilliant so many of us got to see decent snow today but I hope there's another event soon and I see some too 

[weathergeek]

33 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

Can't really understand why they shut the schools down after a slight to moderate snow fall - when I went to the senior school in the 50's its was often the case during a cold spell that we would still get to school and find that of the delivery of school milk delivered that morning that the bottles would be frozen solid the extent that the milk was expanding out of the bottle and they would be half covered in snow.

It never occurred to us that a snowfall would be an excuse for a day off school. 

The school itself was about a couple of miles from my home - that did not qualify for the school bus - the normal bus service was just one an hour - never did use that - we either walked or cycled. 

Not sure that it is an altogether good thing - kids need to be challenged from time to time and getting to school under adverse conditions helps that - it is character building. 

Meanwhile if anything the temperature at Watford has climbed fractionally to 1 C - no fresh snow and still cloudy. No fresh snow though there is a belt about say 40 miles o the north of us according to the radar. 

You lot were definitely made of tougher stuff but you were also living in completely different times! No Health and Safety Laws, schools not at risk of being sued if not made perfectly safe for the kids, most kids walked to school whereas these days most kids are not only driven but driven by parents who are also having to rush off to work so don't have time to drive carefully.... Plus there were a lot less people trying to get to these places, the primary and secondary schools in my area have literally doubled in size compared to 30yrs ago when I was there!

It's sad but it's today's society's reality unfortunately!

[Swave Snow]

I notice temps falling to the east and the wind has been from the north east could we get a rare streamer maybe is that impossible in these circumstances?

Edited December 10, 2017 by Swave Snow

[Flaked Queen]

I keep peeking out and looking at my new (light up the whole house) lamp post but nothing ... can’t grumble as had a good amount last night that WAS worth waiting up for 

[tight isobar]

Storm -ana- making steady progress now and is coastal bound from the english chanel in a few hours...

Dew points and wet bulbs are widely @correction 5/10miles in from coastal fringes.

And continues its fairly intense ppn values.

A step further of northwards 'correction'...

And its looking increasing likely for some more notable deposits.

Atm to early to call locations(favourable)..

And placement of the northern flank!

Edited December 10, 2017 by tight isobar

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Storm -ana- making steady progress now and is coastal bound from the english chanel in a few hours...

Dew points and wet bulbs are widely @correction 5/10miles in from coastal fringes.

And continues its fairly intense ppn values.

A step further of northwards 'correction'...

And its looking increasing likely for some more notable deposits.

Atm to early to call locations(favourable)..

And placement of the northern flank!

That looks a lot further nw than forecast TI unless it swings more e/ne it could get interesting for some 

[Swave Snow]

3 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

That looks a lot further nw than forecast TI unless it swings more e/ne it could get interesting for some 

It's still tracking ne

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

That looks a lot further nw than forecast TI unless it swings more e/ne it could get interesting for some 

Aprege....

Arome....

Both flagging preip conversion to snow as lps loops in.

Wide open as the forementioned' track and trail evolve.

Edit:..

And obviously accums/and height crudentials.

Edited December 10, 2017 by tight isobar

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

That looks a lot further nw than forecast TI unless it swings more e/ne it could get interesting for some 

At the moment it' doing an 87 we Don't want that. Needs to stay south.

[Frostbite1980]

3 minutes ago, Swave Snow said:

It's still tracking ne

It is but looks further nw to where it was modelled at this time....could be wrong though

been a long long day for me but looking at the position of her she would near enough have to go due east from that position to miss most and even then Kent would get clipped...but as I said a long day so will see what’s happening at 7.30 tomorrow morning lol night all 

Edited December 10, 2017 by Frostbite1980

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

It is but looks further nw to where it was modelled at this time....could be wrong though

Definitely on a better gradient/track than first thought!

Edited December 10, 2017 by tight isobar

[Met4Cast]

Dew points at or below freezing across most of the region

Latest FAX chart shows the occluded front pushing across the region

Areas East of the Occlusion will be in less cold air so likely to be rain for those areas, it's more to the West of London that the risk of snow is greatest.

Euro4 seas mostly rain but with some back edge snowfall, again for those to the West of the occlusion.

Aperge very similar, mostly rain with snowfall to the West of London extending North-Eastwards

So overall - Not a great chance of snow for many tomorrow, it'll be mostly rain due to the rising dew points from the North-Easterly flow associated with the LP. Areas to the West and North of our region best place, especially with some elevation but by and large, most of us on the wrong side of marginal by the time the PPN arrives.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Danny*

[HighPressure]

2 hours ago, weathergeek said:

I Home Educate my kids so every day is a snow day if there's a chance of it, lol!!

Meto says sleet all day for Leatherhead but heavy snow all day for Epsom Downs - I live between the two so guess which way we'll be headed, lol! Or perhas Boxhill will be even better?!xx

We home educate as well, and live on the Downs above Sevenoaks, we don't even have pavements to get to schools. We may see some snow tomorrow I hear? The kids round here use the downs to sledge down if we get a mm of snow    

[Frostbite1980]

2 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Dew points at or below freezing across most of the region

Latest FAX chart shows the occluded front pushing across the region

Areas East of the Occlusion will be in less cold air so likely to be rain for those areas, it's more to the West of London that the risk of snow is greatest.

Euro4 seas mostly rain but with some back edge snowfall, again for those to the West of the occlusion.

Aperge very similar, mostly rain with snowfall to the West of London extending North-Eastwards

So overall - Not a great chance of snow for many tomorrow, it'll be mostly rain due to the rising dew points from the North-Easterly flow associated with the LP. Areas to the West and North of our region best place, especially with some elevation but by and large, most of us on the wrong side of marginal by the time the PPN arrives.

Still not buying it with the position of the low right now....I think a correction west by say maybe 50 miles! Rain or snow, I still think anyone over 150m could see something of interest! Now I really am going to sleep lol 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Now that todays snow event is finally over and tomorrow looking a bit too marginal I can safely say...