SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Those with snow cover need to hope for clearer skies ASAP to stop that snow melt. Currently broken cloud here and that temp of 7ºC earlier has plummeted close to freezing. XC says 1ºC at Shoreham - not often that is seen there!

Temps on meteociel observations show mostly zero to 2c  across our area (zero over the snow cover). Dp's also around zero so shouldn't be too much melt but clearly it's prob just the wrong side of zero in some places 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Everything is turning to ice here 

[alexisj9]

14 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The sleet and snow over Wales, Midlands and southern parts of N England should sink SE over our area overnight, though will be light and probably wont amount to much more. The French low should pep up the snowfall tomorrow morning into the afternoon across parts of the SE, as the northern flank of the lows precipitation moves across the SE, heaviest rates modelled towards S and E Kent and E Sussex, but more likely to be rain here, with snow more further N and W  toward London and Essex, northern and western extent rather uncertain this far off, so be interesting which model is on the money.

Really hope it will be snow this time. Models got the snow line wronged substantially for today's. So just hoping.

[steveinsussex]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Everything is turning to ice here 

Yes here as well, v slowly, everything is damp and getting icy. Not good, just hope people out there take care on the roads

[Coopsy]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just went my favourite way home

west kingsdown @ 230M 3-4cm snow & -0.5c ish- roads were glazed

new ash green @140M 1-2cm of snow & 0.2c with a bit of a drip drip !

S

Something tells me you wont be moving for a while ?

[lawrenk]

Having missed out in Hailsham today, I think I may at least see some sleet/snow falling tomorrow, though I think it will struggle to settle.

At least United lost, so not a complete write off of a day! 

Joking apart, great to read the reports round our region today. Just hope we get a proper Easterly/North Easterly in January where proximity to the coast and altitude are irrelevant.

[weathergeek]

Meto still has sleet for Leatherhead all day tomorrow..... now do I get me up Boxhill or am I wishful thinking?!xx

[Donna3397]

6 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Having missed out in Hailsham today, I think I may at least see some sleet/snow falling tomorrow, though I think it will struggle to settle.

At least United lost, so not a complete write off of a day! 

Joking apart, great to read the reports round our region today. Just hope we get a proper Easterly/North Easterly in January where proximity to the coast and altitude are irrelevant.

Looking at the nw radar you should be Gerri g a sprinkling now

[kold weather]

Just worth noting I think Chris Fawkes is spot on, just compared the 12z ECM op to the satellite imagery and the system is definitely north of where the model expected. We will know more in 4-6hrs once the low pressure comes ashore in France exactly where it is BUT the northern edge of the cloud canopy was predicted to run at the same latitude as the mid point of the channel. The actual position would put it at close to London's latitude, meaning there is that much of an error at the moment. It may grow/shrink over time, but watch the 18z models as they may well show a different set-up to what is forecasted right now.

I'll await the 12z ECM ensembles to see if any are close and what they end up extrapolating.

[ThamesStreamer]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just worth noting I think Chris Fawkes is spot on, just compared the 12z ECM op to the satellite imagery and the system is definitely north of where the model expected. We will know more in 4-6hrs once the low pressure comes ashore in France exactly where it is BUT the northern edge of the cloud canopy was predicted to run at the same latitude as the mid point of the channel. The actual position would put it at close to London's latitude, meaning there is that much of an error at the moment. It may grow/shrink over time, but watch the 18z models as they may well show a different set-up to what is forecasted right now.

I'll await the 12z ECM ensembles to see if any are close and what they end up extrapolating.

What would that mean for us? More precip?

[bobbydog]

i'm looking at the radar, watching a small pink blob, hoping i might catch 10 minutes of light sleet... how sad is that

[alexisj9]

Just now, ThamesStreamer said:

What would that mean for us? More precip?

Yep. I'm just hoping it' still in France though and not in a similar position to days.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just worth noting I think Chris Fawkes is spot on, just compared the 12z ECM op to the satellite imagery and the system is definitely north of where the model expected. We will know more in 4-6hrs once the low pressure comes ashore in France exactly where it is BUT the northern edge of the cloud canopy was predicted to run at the same latitude as the mid point of the channel. The actual position would put it at close to London's latitude, meaning there is that much of an error at the moment. It may grow/shrink over time, but watch the 18z models as they may well show a different set-up to what is forecasted right now.

I'll await the 12z ECM ensembles to see if any are close and what they end up extrapolating.

If it's at a different latitude then it may interact with the upper trough differently and deepen less which may mean it doesn't move as far north anyway. What's needed is the 18z runs which will position it in the right place to begin with. Some of the European high res runs are coming out around 11pm

[shotski]

18 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Meto still has sleet for Leatherhead all day tomorrow..... now do I get me up Boxhill or am I wishful thinking?!xx

Depends on if the schools are closed in our case. Apart from its work for me ☹️☹️

[Methuselah]

It looks as if tomorrow's storm will generate strong NE winds and result in higher DPs...more generally marginal than today. That means I'll see rain all of the time.

[chionomaniac]

A light snow shower now in Burgess Hill so the snow has made it this far south.

[steveinsussex]

5 minutes ago, ThamesStreamer said:

What would that mean for us? More precip?

More Disappointment for those that didn’t get snow today 

[Emz by the Thames]

Woke to rain and 1.4.c in the night and the sound of dripping from gutters, fell back to sleep and woke at 7am to find it was already snowing. Fun in the snow all day on and off. Feel so happy for those with kids who finally got to build snowmen with them.  I built a snow lantern out of snowballs this evening and it was surprisingly  effective! (and didn't melt!)

[Weathizard]

This amused me earlier, for any of the snowless lot here.

[Bricriu]

So the snowline, assuming there is precipitation, for tomorrow will be a 100 ft above sea level, is that correct?

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

So the snowline, assuming there is precipitation, for tomorrow will be a 100 ft above sea level, is that correct?

No, metres. 

To be honest tomorrow is looking very, very limited for snow potential now. There will be a lucky few but for the most of us it will either be dry or rain.

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

So the snowline, assuming there is precipitation, for tomorrow will be a 100 ft above sea level, is that correct?

If that happens at least all I have to do is walk out of my garden then up to the top of the hill my house is on.

[mpkio2]

BBC has my area down for this tomorrow...

I don't have much faith in it though; I should be having "Heavy Snow" right now, yet nothing is falling from the sky!

I say to expect the unexpected tomorrow for our region.

More surprises might be in store...

[Swave Snow]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

No, metres. 

To be honest tomorrow is looking very, very limited for snow potential now. There will be a lucky few but for the most of us it will either be dry or rain.

So that's it then for NW London lol

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

If that happens at least all I have to do is walk out of my garden then up to the top of the hill my house is on.

The Shard might the best place, Alexis?