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SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,

Dan Holly latest thoughts, He is always spot on!

IMG_1231.PNG

Edited by slater
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Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex

Netweather have justice bumped my snow chance up from nothing to 43% on Monday and I'm right on the south east coast

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Man ECM ensembles are all over the place, still not total agreement on even Sunday yet, though most do agree.

Most ECM ensembles set up a fairly small area of very large snowfall totals, though the location ranges drastically from each ensemble member. As a rough benchmark though the A3 North eastwards is a decent benchmark, east of that and the totals on a lot of the runs starts to drop quite quickly, there is a sharp gradient between the just too marginal and the 10-20cms of snow barely 50 miles to the west on a lot of runs.

PS, one run gives a total of 38cms just north-west of London from the two events :)

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,

Monday is giving me a major headache ?, I'm travelling from Norfolk to Thame in Oxfordshire on Monday afternoon, rubbish with possible snow events just can't plan anything, so bloody Annoying do you travel don't you ?

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl

MetO has now removed even the traces of sleet for me for Monday, whereas NW has me with 57% of snow for most of the day ?

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Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
2 minutes ago, slater said:

Monday is giving me a major headache ?, I'm travelling from Norfolk to Thame in Oxfordshire on Monday afternoon, rubbish with possible snow events just can't plan anything, so bloody Annoying do you travel don't you ?

You know what will happen. If you travel it will snow and if you decide not to because of possible snow it won't. So the question is how much do you want it to snow?

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
Just now, snowblind said:

You know what will happen. If you travel it will snow and if you decide not to because of possible snow it won't. So the question is how much do you want it to snow?

In that case, it's time for a road trip!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

snow to rain -> yuck

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
15 minutes ago, slater said:

Dan Holly latest thoughts, He is always spot on!

IMG_1231.PNG

Looks about bang on to me unfortunately. Oh well plenty more days of winter remain. Bring on a Scandi HP and a roaring ENE’ly

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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
Just now, snowblind said:

You know what will happen. If you travel it will snow and if you decide not to because of possible snow it won't. So the question is how much do you want it to snow?

That's the problem, British weather in winter hey

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Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
18 minutes ago, slater said:

Dan Holly latest thoughts, He is always spot on!

IMG_1231.PNG

I'm always just on the edge of the line in the rain. Everytime.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Just finishing off looking through the 12z ECM ensembles for Monday, still large uncertainties but at least for the west of the region there IS a majority going for a snow event of some type. A few really go gangbusters (talking 1ft+) but most in the range of 5-15cms in our region (higher totals to the NW of the region). Much smaller chances further east but there really is a ton of time for change still on that front,.

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Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex

I see on the radar there's a nice streamer wasting itself in the North Sea. Still I suppose there might be some oil rig workers building a snow man somewhere.:wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
1 minute ago, moogyboobles said:

I'm always just on the edge of the line in the rain. Everytime.

Same here normally,  not expecting a lot a slight dusting I reckon to start then will be that wet sleety rain, that's looks a mess lol 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
23 minutes ago, slater said:

Dan Holly latest thoughts, He is always spot on!

IMG_1231.PNG

I guess it could be much worse for me here, just wish the purple could have been extended a good 20-25 miles east.. I do have a small shot at at least a dusting come Sunday morning so i'll be hitting the hay early tomorrow so I can wake up super early (3am-ish) to radar watch and be awake to experience any snow if it arrives before the rain. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
2 hours ago, TheToastPeople said:

I would have bet anything first thing this morning that we would have had a snow shower sometime today, But it was a beautiful sunny day lol! All eyes on sunday then...

Toast, what are your views on Sunday?

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I will try & do a post later but I think monday WILL be the most exciting day of the winter for someone landing 20-30cm of snow - in 50 MPH North Easterlies...

we will also have a scenario where Monday Say in Chelmsford they are throwing snowballs at each other when in maidstone its pishing down-

for ease of guidence follow the -1/-2c isotherm line if your North of it your in the jackpot area... ( as well as being in the PPN )

S

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Posted
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Fire tornado
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, Dami said:

Toast, what are your views on Sunday?

I think its probably going to snow at some point, before it turns back to rain... But ive been wrong before :snowman-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I will try & do a post later but I think monday WILL be the most exciting day of the winter for someone landing 20-30cm of snow - in 50 MPH North Easterlies...

we will also have a scenario where Monday Say in Chelmsford they are throwing snowballs at each other when in maidstone its pishing down-

for ease of guidence follow the -1/-2c isotherm line if your North of it your in the jackpot area... ( as well as being in the PPN )

S

Things may be looking good for here in Berkshire on Monday then?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I will try & do a post later but I think monday WILL be the most exciting day of the winter for someone landing 20-30cm of snow - in 50 MPH North Easterlies...

we will also have a scenario where Monday Say in Chelmsford they are throwing snowballs at each other when in maidstone its pishing down-

for ease of guidence follow the -1/-2c isotherm line if your North of it your in the jackpot area... ( as well as being in the PPN )

S

Yep Steve, most guidance suggests if your just to the west of that snow/rain line then you will have a decent chance at getting quite a sizeable snowfall. Still some things that need to be worked out and there is always a risk of secondary lows forming within both the Sunday and Monday events which will catch the models off guard so we need to watch carefully. I'm feeling quietly happy down in E Hampshire at the moment...

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I will try & do a post later but I think monday WILL be the most exciting day of the winter for someone landing 20-30cm of snow - in 50 MPH North Easterlies...

we will also have a scenario where Monday Say in Chelmsford they are throwing snowballs at each other when in maidstone its pishing down-

for ease of guidence follow the -1/-2c isotherm line if your North of it your in the jackpot area... ( as well as being in the PPN )

S

Hi Steve , is this the one we should be looking at or is this the wrong chart? , taken from ecm run ?.

06D9B796-890A-4122-84F8-282C3C750B8B.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I will try & do a post later but I think monday WILL be the most exciting day of the winter for someone landing 20-30cm of snow - in 50 MPH North Easterlies...

we will also have a scenario where Monday Say in Chelmsford they are throwing snowballs at each other when in maidstone its pishing down-

for ease of guidence follow the -1/-2c isotherm line if your North of it your in the jackpot area... ( as well as being in the PPN )

S

If you are right Steve the Dunstable downs is in a prime position!!

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