SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[alexisj9]

Forum is very busy, must be a cold spell coming. Second one of the year already. Winters just started.

[stainesbloke]

I'm not expecting to see anything other than a brief snow flurry or two here this weekend. It looks quite dry but as long as it is sunny then the cold weather will be lovely. After that....who knows?! Could get proper snow or it'll be wet. Best chances for something cold though, for a few years. I've put up the Christmas decorations and gone with a very 1980's theme, made me remember some cracking cold and snowy spells from that decade. 

[weathergeek]

Yes it is about patience so let's hope Monday's predicted snow event actually gets us a flake or 600,000!!! Just don't ant to see it come to nothing and then predicted for another few days away etc etc!!xx

[Kent Blizzard]

Following on from my post this morning, I think for the majority in this thread the more exciting feature is Sunday when for a small window of time that wind swings more in our favour 

[Wivenswold]

Phew, just returning from 10 minutes in the Model Discussion. Well, I say "Model Discussion" it's more a case of "Show something that means you can jump to one of two conclusions, then get too excited about it, Discussion".

As Luke said, get the cold in then see from there. My memory of the good winters is that the good stuff is hard to forecast until you're within 48 hours. Mainly because the "good stuff" for our region comes from streamers off the North Sea and easterly troughs. Both not easy to forecast in advance. 

 

[yamkin]

43 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I'm not expecting to see anything other than a brief snow flurry or two here this weekend. It looks quite dry but as long as it is sunny then the cold weather will be lovely. After that....who knows?! Could get proper snow or it'll be wet. Best chances for something cold though, for a few years. I've put up the Christmas decorations and gone with a very 1980's theme, made me remember some cracking cold and snowy spells from that decade. 

Latest GFS model output shows snow on Friday for a few hours and then very heavy snow on Monday into Tuesday. This is a projected snow forecast which is subject to change.

[tight isobar]

Still a 'whole' array of options for our part(southeast)

And certainly wouldnt take much-at all-via minor dynamics....

To have us firmly in any snow-zones.

And conversions.

Plenty to watch for....coming days!!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

I'm not expecting to see anything other than a brief snow flurry or two here this weekend. It looks quite dry but as long as it is sunny then the cold weather will be lovely. After that....who knows?! Could get proper snow or it'll be wet. Best chances for something cold though, for a few years. I've put up the Christmas decorations and gone with a very 1980's theme, made me remember some cracking cold and snowy spells from that decade. 

Ah so of we get snowmageden it's your fault. Chears in advance. 

Edited December 5, 2017 by alexisj9

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, yamkin said:

Latest GFS model output shows snow on Friday for a few hours and then very heavy snow on Monday into Tuesday. This is a projected snow forecast which is subject to change.

Hmm Friday not good for me got to go to Ashford. Might be an interesting journey. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS 00z illiterates beautifully how a Cheshire gap streamer can impact western areas of the region. Will need the high res from Thursday to get a rough idea.. 

[Sparky68]

Hoping we don't get caught in it in Milton Keynes while at work. Don't mind getting caught once back at home.

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

GFS 00z illiterates beautifully how a Cheshire gap streamer can impact western areas of the region. Will need the high res from Thursday to get a rough idea.. 

So I’m told the beeb forecast mentioned snow in the south on Friday. 

[Weathizard]

Looks like standard winter stuff for us southern lot, a brief very cold predominantly dry northerly with some scattered snow showers in the far west of our region. 

Onviously nothing nailed on at this point but there's been a definite move away from anything for us over the past 24 hours or so.

[Justin Miller]

The latest jump, of many this week, in the models and charts, seems to single out the south of the uk of any white stuff, but take it with a pinch of salt at the moment, we won’t truly know until tommorow eve/ Thursday morning, with a higher confidence.

[steveinsussex]

Cold rain is just nasty

 

ugh

[steveinsussex]

47 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Hoping we don't get caught in it in Milton Keynes while at work. Don't mind getting caught once back at home.

Lol there will be nothing to be caught in within the next 5 days 

[Justin Miller]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Lol there will be nothing to be caught in within the next 5 days 

I wouldn’t say that just yet mate. There’s always possibility of another few changes in the coming days, like we’ve seen all week, the temperatures, from ground to 850hpa are good to marginal, anything is possible don’t hold anything off just yet, just wait and see.

[Uxbridge90]

So, it looks like Thursday is going to be very wet and miserable before the cold comes in and takes a grip. Looks like we could get a good lasting cold spell, with the weekend being particularly bitter. Think some of us will certainly see some falling snow, perhaps sleety, but I'd be surprised if anything settled. All in all, looking forward to hopefully a prolonged cold spell!

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Looks like standard winter stuff for us southern lot, a brief very cold predominantly dry northerly with some scattered snow showers in the far west of our region.

Onviously nothing nailed on at this point but there's been a definite move away from anything for us over the past 24 hours or so.

There are a few things wrong here.

1) it is not a northerly it has a slight westerly element this is why showers consisting predominately of snow are expected to move well inland even we’re in the risk area. 

2) Brief? We may lose the very cold uppers for a time - but it’s looking cold for the foreseeable future. 

UKMO & GFS shows the threat of snowfall from a slider low on Sunday. Plenty of interest is there. 

[Mrs D]

My younger son will be 27 on Thursday....and yes it snowed on the day he was born. 

If my memory is correct it snowed on his 5th birthday.... (snowman cake) and playing outside in the snow. 

Not much since then for the 7th, but we are only 8-10 miles from the English Channel, so it needs to be a Beast from the East to have any real effect.

[stainesbloke]

Another dreary day. Can't wait for this grey muck to be swept away. Hopefully lots of sunshine after Thursday with some snow showers possible too. Much better.

[Weathizard]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

There are a few things wrong here.

1) it is not a northerly it has a slight westerly element this is why showers consisting predominately of snow are expected to move well inland even we’re in the risk area. 

2) Brief? We may lose the very cold uppers for a time - but it’s looking cold for the foreseeable future. 

UKMO & GFS shows the threat of snowfall from a slider low on Sunday. Plenty of interest is there. 

1) Very pendantic, but yeah the slight westerly element will help the NW of our region as I stated, Cheshire gap streamers quite often filter down to this area. However I don't think the snow showers will be as widespread as predicted.

 

2) Looking relatively cold yes, but cold enough for snow after the 2-3 day period.. likely not. The slider low is also trending north, which is bad for our region.

 

Not trying to pee on anyone's cornflakes just my personal opinion looking at it without the rose tinted glasses (I'm a snow fan also).

[Southender]

Taking the 6z GFS at face value, we have a small window from early hours Fri after rain moves through on Thursday to about Sunday/afternoon eve to squeeze out some of the white stuff in our region. Initially an outside shot of a Cheshire gap shower train, but we are the last stop, so the further S/E you are the chances reduce. Then a front moving in on Sunday morning with the potential for a snow/rain mix (as always there will be the dredded "mild sector" around) before things quieten down (perhaps a few wintry showers) and temps climb (but still on the cold side) a bit as we move into next week. That is what I am seeing solely based on the 6z run. Things will continue to chop and change over the next few days especially regarding Sunday's slider/non-slider, which could change our fortunes for the better/worst. But at present I feel this is about right. Our NW/N brethren are much better placed for snow chances and good luck to them. I have learned over the countless years of being on this site, never ever to take the model output of any of the sources as gospel, until at least 48hrs out at best, especially in winter. Being where we are in the UK, if something can spoil our snow chances, more often than not it will. So try and make your own assumptions from the output and listen to the more balanced senior members of the site, rather than hang on the word of "rampers" it will save a lot of pain in the long run! 

Edited December 5, 2017 by Southender

[Britneyfan]

I think we can safely say, we are going to miss out on any snow events yet again 

[Methuselah]

Och weel - if the MetO's warnings end up being correct, all of us in this reason can wave goodbye to any snow...