SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[WeatherMoose]

On 12/1/2017 at 19:09, Daniel* said:

Pfttt the grind never stops..

@WeatherMoose you seem new welcome to the mad house !  

GFS 12z made me go a little faint 10cm of snow for the capital..yes please. 

Thanks! thought id join so i could talk about weather in true british fashion but also learn a bit more about weather and the way its measured

[Dami]

Taking my forecasts with a pitch of salt, gone from heavy snow, then rain and then nothing in 24hrs for next week. Seriously, it was a case of which one I liked the most they were all different. MetO never had a stiff of the white stuff for me with temps around 8c, while here I had heavy snow. The joys.

Looks cloudy and damp out and that's as far as i'm going. Although 19C in the bed room felt blimin' chilly. 

[snowfish1]

Let's hope we get some snow rather than cold rain and freezing wind 

[Weathizard]

Looks good for the north and NW but not so much for us, hard to see anything significant from NW flows, rarely seen them deliver anything down here.

Suppose as the old addage goes get the cold in first then worry about wintery chances, but at this stage looking a bit of a non event for many of us

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Looks good for the north and NW but not so much for us, hard to see anything significant from NW flows, rarely seen them deliver anything down here.

Suppose as the old addage goes get the cold in first then worry about wintery chances, but at this stage looking a bit of a non event for many of us

Better direction that what we had soon to be last week. We tend to pick up the showers here in London & Home Counties which filter southeastwards towards us, through the Cheshire gap.

In facts in recent winters it’s been the direction which has brought most of the snow. 

[slater]

Can someone explain why in 12 hrs we were in for the most intense snow storm Thursday night Friday now absolutely nothing, yes I know charts 5/6 days ahead do change dramatically but it was nailed down by the model room at 9pm last night in fact 200 of them were over excited.

Edited December 3, 2017 by slater

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Better direction that what we had soon to be last week. We tend to pick up the showers here in London & Home Counties which filter southeastwards towards us, through the Cheshire gap.

In facts in recent winters it’s been the direction which has brought most of the snow. 

That's probably because recent winters have been so bloody poor! This is true, but they tend to be wet horrible snow showers in my experience and the temperatures are never that low maxima wise, especially for my location getting anything significant from that direction without a trough or low pressure bashing into cold air.

I guess part of the annoyance comes from the fact we were actually predicted to do quite well in this set up with back edge snow but the models have now distanced themselves from that, looks like heavy rain followed by a big temperature drop and everything freezing

[Kent Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, slater said:

Can someone explain why in 12 hrs we were in for the most intense snow storm Thursday night Friday now absolutely nothing, yes I know charts 5/6 days ahead do change dramatically but it was nailed down by the model room at 9pm last night in fact 200 of them were over excited.

Because the majority make the mistake of riding on the back if every single output which 75% of the time will chop & change till t96 most of the time.

That's why most of the best events are often surprises (2010 aside)....probably down to pre-forums.

 

Edited December 3, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

That's probably because recent winters have been so bloody poor! This is true, but they tend to be wet horrible snow showers in my experience and the temperatures are never that low maxima wise, especially for my location getting anything significant from that direction without a trough or low pressure bashing into cold air.

I guess part of the annoyance comes from the fact we were actually predicted to do quite well in this set up with back edge snow but the models have now distanced themselves from that, looks like heavy rain followed by a big temperature drop and everything freezing

I see ECM 00z has dropped the back edge snow this morning cold air comes when front is well clear. While maybe it can not be categorically ruled out just yet, keep everything crossed. 

It is a fairly potent arctic blast I would expect troughs and what have you in the mix! There is even a risk of a Polar Low however that does not favour SE England. 

[Kent Blizzard]

We go from quite a big temperature drop in a short space of time Thursday, the time of the precipitation will be the big factor for us, Saturday into Sunday could provide us with a better chance though!

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, slater said:

Can someone explain why in 12 hrs we were in for the most intense snow storm Thursday night Friday now absolutely nothing, yes I know charts 5/6 days ahead do change dramatically but it was nailed down by the model room at 9pm last night in fact 200 of them were over excited.

Well this can not be entirely dismissed yet.

It’s interesting that this low pressure system has trended deeper just like the GFS started with, well not quite that deep. I don’t think it was over that...the 200 people just a real good set of model output. On other hand, there has been times, when only 6-12hrs before the models have picked up snow events. On the micro level they can change drastically however the broad pattern at day 5-6 typically not very much.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Daniel*

[yamkin]

8 minutes ago, slater said:

Can someone explain why in 12 hrs we were in for the most intense snow storm Thursday night Friday now absolutely nothing, yes I know charts 5/6 days ahead do change dramatically but it was nailed down by the model room at 9pm last night in fact 200 of them were over excited.

The weather cycles will change which means the models have to readjust each time.

[Kent Blizzard]

Just for a bit of fun and to easily understand the fine balance of Thursday.

Look at the GFS rain/snowfall from t114 to t126....it'll be interesting radar viewing..

[Weathizard]

5 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Just for a bit of fun and to easily understand the fine balance of Thursday.

Look at the GFS rain/snowfall from t114 to t126....it'll be interesting radar viewing..

The south east snow blocker in full workin order there haha

[Kent Blizzard]

We'll start chanting Pull Pull Pull Pull to those on the W/NW/N edge of the County 

[Timbo]

I think we are all in for a good chance of snow later this week, , last Thursday we were supposed to be getting sleety showers on the coast here at Lowestoft, By 11am it had been snowing of and on since 5am and a good covering of about 3", although forecasts were still saying sleet. it will be all down to nowcasting and expect a few surprises

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

We'll start chanting Pull Pull Pull Pull to those on the W/NW/N edge of the County 

Only Lassie did the snow dance last time, we all need to do it now strength in numbers.

[snowfish1]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Looks good for the north and NW but not so much for us, hard to see anything significant from NW flows, rarely seen them deliver anything down here.

Suppose as the old addage goes get the cold in first then worry about wintery chances, but at this stage looking a bit of a non event for many of us

What a surprise 

[stainesbloke]

Meanwhile, back to current conditions. A rather unpleasant morning here with a fine but steady  drizzle falling from gloomy skies. Light winds at least and milder at 8C.

[Dami]

Snow chance,

[yamkin]

14 minutes ago, Dami said:

Snow chance,

Models will be up & down re PPN at this stage

[Daniel*]

Horrible morning. Misty and murky with drizzly rain that likes to soak everything. 

Edited December 3, 2017 by Daniel*

[Katrine Basso]

It is a horrible dreich day in South Ockendon, overcast sky with humidity at 95%.  The temperature may be 9.4 °C  but the dampness in the air makes it feel colder.

[Dami]

For my area I seriously think I won't get anything of note. 

[Kent Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Dami said:

For my area I seriously think I won't get anything of note. 

Why is this Dami? you'd be better positioned than most in this thread.